Tax Changes for 2024 You Need to Know

2024-03-08

Market Commentary: When will rate cuts hit? Biden’s SOTU Address: Get ready for higher corporate taxes and an inflation fight. The Death of the 4% Rule? Not yet…the impact of lower interest rates on a viable distribution plan; how to create one as Recession looms. Dealing with durations: Holding long-term bonds, but not to maturity. Credit risk in bonds, and the importance of portfolio fluidity. Distribution planning and timing: What are appropriate benchmarks for portfolio performance? Is the 60/40 portfolio dead? (No.) Why we may be at the peak of rate hike cycle; proactivity is the key. Is bailing on market volatility a loser’s game? Setting reasonable expectations for portfolio risk; what to do when the fundamentals are skewed. (Getting more "likes" than Lance.) Looking at Bond

2024-03-05

Economic Data releases and Fed speeches today will resonate with a rising commentary of no rate cut(s) this year, thanks to sticky inflation. Target’s earnings show the consumer is still spending; markets continue in 4-month advance, longest since 1970. Preceding a correction? Markets are operating in a narrow trend channel, with money rotating out of Magnificent Seven Stocks and into meme stocks. Markets are in the midst of bullish exuberance; Lance’s emails are the best contrarian indicator. Valuations are an indicator of sentiment; why FOMO trumps Fundamentals; rationalization and the numbers game: Making up metrics to rationalize valuation: We’re still paying too much for equities. Bitcoin & ETF’s: The Dark Side of the Coin. Shorting ETF’s adds an additional layer of volatility.

2024-03-04

Markets are entering the three strgonest months of the year; what if interest arwets aren’t cut? February was unusually strong for a "weak" month; what happens during Presidential Election years? Looking at Volatility risk. Markets have been up for 16 of the past 18-weeks; such activity generalluy heralds a correction. Warren Buffett’s annual letter: What do to with $160-B in cash? The dilemma of cash and valuations; cash held by corporations is at an all-time high; Buffett’s favorite metric is Market Capitalization to GDP Ratio. Why it’s hard to find "reasonably priced" companies. When investing becomes gambling; the risk of market correction coming. Dumb Money vs Smart Money: Teaching kids to invest, not gamble.

3:13 – Entering Three Strongest Months of the Year
14:31 – Warren

2024-02-22

Has Nvidia become the world’s most-valuable company? The S&P is aiming at more all-time highs, but can they hold? Fed minutes reveal no rush to cut rates. The disconnect with markets’ expecting more cuts. Will the Fed reduce QT as money flows into markets? Meanwhile, markets continue to test rising trendline at 20-DMA, as consolidation continues. No reason to be bearish on markets…yet. What markets missed from Fed Minutes: the quantity of rate cuts to come. An unexpected risk: Effects of balance sheet run-off as Fed adjusts QT to manage liquidity. The unstoppable market: What is happening to Fed’s repo program; the Fed Liquidity Index. Have we returned to a bubble in Magnificent Seven stocks (and are they worthy of current valuations)? The hard part about managing portfolios: How does

2023-12-14

(12/14/23) Throwing caution to the wind, a dovish FOMC takes the bearish stance away from markets; markets are forming a cup-and-handle pattern, suggesting a rally to record-highs; but that does not preclude a 3- to-5% correction. Bond yields are to fall. Out of control tipping; how the Fed trained investors to expect backup; the Fed’s pivot to dovishness: What do they know that we do not? The benefits of lower rates vs risk of more inflation; financial conditions are easing. Look for a huge short-cover rally, and then get ready for correction. But first, more record-highs. Bullish vs bearish commentary; a look at the FRED database; the key phrase is "effective rate." Excess liquidity is leaving the system; where will the Fed turn when it needs more money? THe Fed is still doing QT,

2023-12-11

12/27/23) Hate those self-checkout registers at the store? Merchants are discovering they might be costing more in "shrinkage" than is being saved by fewer employees working registers. Lance addresses the problem with self-checkout & retail theft; creation of more inflation; Gen-Z’s five-finger discount habit.
Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
——–
Watch the full show from which this segment was excerpted on our YouTube channel:
&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2656s
——–
The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Begin Year-End Gyrations" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=4s
——-
Our previous show is here: "Is the

2023-11-17

(11/17/23) Richard Rosso’s adventures in Houston traffic, market seasonality and stock-bond correlation: Why would the Fed cut interest rates now? WalMart’s results: What are companies going to do during deflation? Richard calls the Butterball Turkey Hotline; spending survey results for 2023 & Consumer Sentiment indexes: Why are American’s still spending? The WalMart Parking Lot Indicator. Withdrawal Rates & Recency Bias: Why Dave Ramsey is wrong about withdrawal rates. MorningStar: Dealing with higher fixed-income rates: not here to stay. Why the 4% Withdrawal Rate is back…for now. Sequence of Returns & Guaranteed Income when the withdrawal rate is not constant.

2:35 – Driving in Houston & Market Seasonality
13:51 – Butterball Turkey Talk Line
17:59 – Spending Results for 2023
29:57

2023-11-08

(11/8/23)
Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
——–
The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will Markets Retest Today?" is here: -NOraPNew&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
——-
Our previous show is here: "Why You Cannot Invest Like Warren Buffett"
-XJZYY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe
——–
Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"Bond Bear Market. Is It Dead, Or Just Hibernating?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-bear-market-is-it-dead-or-just-hibernating/
"Job And Retail Sales Data: Always Good Until They Aren’t"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/job-and-retail-sales-data-always-good-until-they-arent/
——-
Get more info & commentary: