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Jobless claims: a renewed downward trend?

Summary:
- by New Deal democratJobless claims declined 36,000 this week to 293,000, another pandemic low. The 4 week average also declined 10,500 to 334,500, also another pandemic low:With the exception of the last few years of the last expansion, this level of weekly initial claims would be very low for any point in the last 50 years, and the 4 week average would be average for an expansion:Continuing claims declined 134,000 to 2,593,000, also a new pandemic low:This level would also be normal for the middle of the last few expansions:Finally, here is the YoY% change of continuing claims:Based on the YoY change, it appears that the ending of all of the emergency pandemic assistance programs by some States in June had very little effect, but the complete nationwide phase-out last month may be a

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 - by New Deal democrat

Jobless claims declined 36,000 this week to 293,000, another pandemic low. The 4 week average also declined 10,500 to 334,500, also another pandemic low:

Jobless claims: a renewed downward trend?


With the exception of the last few years of the last expansion, this level of weekly initial claims would be very low for any point in the last 50 years, and the 4 week average would be average for an expansion:

Jobless claims: a renewed downward trend?

Continuing claims declined 134,000 to 2,593,000, also a new pandemic low:

Jobless claims: a renewed downward trend?

This level would also be normal for the middle of the last few expansions:

Jobless claims: a renewed downward trend?

Finally, here is the YoY% change of continuing claims:

Jobless claims: a renewed downward trend?

Based on the YoY change, it appears that the ending of all of the emergency pandemic assistance programs by some States in June had very little effect, but the complete nationwide phase-out last month may be a cause for the decline in continued claims in the last few weeks. 

Whether this week is just a bit of a downside outlier, or the actual beginning of a renewed downward trend in claims remains to be seen. But it certainly adds to the evidence that employees have little fear of layoffs at present.


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