- by New Deal democratThis morning we got two important monthly September reports: industrial production and retail sales.I have more to say about industrial production, and some general economic analysis about retail sales, which are pending at Seeking Alpha. I will post a link once that article goes up. UPDATE: Here’s the link: LinkFor this blog, let’s focus on how real retail sales are likely to affect employment. Just to start, here is are CPI adjusted retail sales. You can see that they have actually jumped once the Congressional stimulus kicked in, and have remained well ahead of pre-pandemic levels:As I have said many times in the past, consumption slightly leads employment. It has almost universally done so for the entire 70+ year history that both measures have been kept.
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- by New Deal democrat
This morning we got two important monthly September reports: industrial production and retail sales.
But, turning to employment, historically consumption has led employment (/2) by several months (albeit with lots of noise), and has an even closer relationship with aggregate hours (all shown YoY below):