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Coronavirus dashboard for April 6: lockdowns appear to be working

Summary:
- by New Deal democrat Here is the update through yesterday (April 5)  I’ve changed the format, moving the “just the facts, ma’am” data to the top, and comments to the end. The four most important metrics are starred (***) below.  Number and rate of increase of Reported Infections (from Johns Hopkins via arcgis.com) Number: up +25,688 to 337,933 (vs. +33,787 on April 4)  ***Rate of increase: day/day: 8% (vs. 13% for the past week, and 12% on April 4) The exponential growth rate began to fall from 35% on March 24. It now looks like in the past week or so it is in a new, decelerating trend, declining by about -1%/day. Voluntary social distancing was clearly not enough, but the State lockdowns appear to be beginning to  work (more on that in a separate post). Ben Engebreth is

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 - by New Deal democrat

Here is the update through yesterday (April 5) 

I’ve changed the format, moving the “just the facts, ma’am” data to the top, and comments to the end.

The four most important metrics are starred (***) below. 

Number and rate of increase of Reported Infections (from Johns Hopkins via arcgis.com)
  • Number: up +25,688 to 337,933 (vs. +33,787 on April 4) 

  • Coronavirus dashboard for April 6: lockdowns appear to be working
  • ***Rate of increase: day/day: 8% (vs. 13% for the past week, and 12% on April 4)

  • Coronavirus dashboard for April 6: lockdowns appear to be working
The exponential growth rate began to fall from 35% on March 24. It now looks like in the past week or so it is in a new, decelerating trend, declining by about -1%/day. Voluntary social distancing was clearly not enough, but the State lockdowns appear to be beginning to  work (more on that in a separate post).
Ben Engebreth is tracking coronvirus infection and testing numbers for each State, with graphs, here. Also, there is an awesome interactive tool to measure infections and other data for various countries and US States at 91-divoc.com.
Number of deaths and infections and rate of increase of testing (from COVID Tracking Project)
  • ***Number of deaths: Total 9,498, up +1,184 day/day
  • Rate: increase of 14% day/day vs. average of 20% in past week
  • Number of tests: 138,225, down -88,720  vs. 226,945 on April 4 day/day
  • Rate: decrease -39% vs. number of tests previous day
  • Tests pending result: 17,307 vs. 15,573 on April 4 day/day
Comparison of rates of increase in documented infections vs. testing  
  • Infections +8% vs. Tests -39% day/day
Result: April 4’s high testing number was the result of the 2/3’s clearance of a huge backlog. The rate of testing is catching up a little bit to the spread of the virus. Nevertheless, it remains far below what is needed, which is probably now at least 250,000/day. Note this target number increases as the number of new infections increases.

Ratio of tests to positives for infection (from COVID Tracking Project)
  • Number: 138,225 new tests vs. 26,553 new diagnosed infections 
  • ***Ratio: 5.2:1 

  • Coronavirus dashboard for April 6: lockdowns appear to be working
In South Korea, where aggressive testing has led to a near-total disappearance of new cases, the inflection point where the number of new daily cases plateaued was reached when the ratio of tests to new cases found reached 15:1. Any ratio less than that suggests that not enough testing is being done. Yesterday’s ratio of 5.2:1 is still far behind.
US States and population in total lockdown, business lockdown, and partial restrictions - no change in past 24 hours
  • ***Total lockdown: 42 States, 301.6 million, 90.9%
  • ***Business lockdown: 3 States (KY, MA, SC*) 16.6 million, 5.0%
  • Partial restrictions on business (bars, restaurants): 5 States (IA, ND, NE, UT*, WY^) 9.7 million, 2.9%
  • School closure only: 2 States (AR^, SD) 3.9 million, 1.2%
  • No mandatory restrictions: NONE
*some local areas under lockdowns
^restrictions on or quarantine of travelers from out of State

Coronavirus dashboard for April 6: lockdowns appear to be working
There have been no meaningful changes in the past day.
US States with “test, trace, and quarantine” programs
  • Under development: 1 State: MA

Summary for April 6
Almost every public health authority who has weighed in has advocated the “Sledgehammer, then Scalpel” approach of a temporary total lockdown, during which time, as the infection rate of growth hopefully moves to flat, the production and distribution of necessary medical equipment is surged. Once enough is in place, a regimen of “test, trace, and quarantine” can be put in place as the lockdown is lifted.

Here’s how we stand: 

  • There were no meaningful changes today in governmental responses.

  • Almost 95% of the total US population is under total lockdown.
  • Mandatory lockdowns, first implemented on Statewide bases 17 days ago, appear to be making a substantial difference, as the daily rate of increase in new cases is steadily declining.
  • Travelers from States that resisted lockdowns until last week (especially Florida!) have probably re-seeded new outbreaks in those that went to lockdowns early. (This will be the subject of a separate post).
  • The number of daily tests has finally improved from about 100,000 to 140,000, but is still far short of of what is necessary.
  • So long as the virus continues to spreading at an exponential rate, the longer it will be until total lockdowns can be lifted.
  • The Trump Administration has still not mandated a nationwide lockdown.
  • The Trump Administration has taken no meaningful steps to mandate mass production of necessary medical equipment.
  • The Trump Administration has taken no steps towards a nationwide “test, trace, and quarantine” plan that will be needed to lift lockdowns.
  • Massachusetts has begun to develop its own “test, trace, and quarantine” plan. Hopefully this will be adopted by other States quickly.
  • California’s governor has announced a plan for the States to coordinate in making purchases of the necessary equipment.

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