Friday , February 21 2020

On the road

Summary:
- by New Deal democratToday is a traveling day, so no detailed posting.This morning’s initial jobless claims were in line with the range over the past two years. There has been virtually no change YoY. This negatives any imminent recession fears.Yesterday’s existing home sales, though touted as “the best in nearly two years,” just continue the baseline that this metric has been in since late 2015, with the exception of the 2018 decline. Of more interest is that (1) inventory is at a cycle low, and - not coincidentally - YoY price increases, up 7.8%, show a continuing acceleration: A few months ago I offered up the idea that housing now had its own “choke collar,” where prices were bumping up against the limit of what buyers in the aggregate could afford, even with lower interest rates.

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 - by New Deal democrat

Today is a traveling day, so no detailed posting.

This morning’s initial jobless claims were in line with the range over the past two years. There has been virtually no change YoY. This negatives any imminent recession fears.

Yesterday’s existing home sales, though touted as “the best in nearly two years,” just continue the baseline that this metric has been in since late 2015, with the exception of the 2018 decline. Of more interest is that (1) inventory is at a cycle low, and - not coincidentally - YoY price increases, up 7.8%, show a continuing acceleration:

On the road
A few months ago I offered up the idea that housing now had its own “choke collar,” where prices were bumping up against the limit of what buyers in the aggregate could afford, even with lower interest rates. We’ll get much more information on whether that is the case when new home sales and prices are reported next week.

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