Thursday , August 6 2020
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An update on forecasts

Summary:
- by New Deal democratI have a new post up at Seeking Alpha, describing the order in which data has tended to deteriorate before consumer-led recessions. A few conditions have been met; most others have not.I have previously written that if a recession is in the works over the next few quarters, it is more likely to be a producer-led recession, a la 2001. In that regard, a few weeks ago I said that Q2 corporate profits would be a crucial report.Well, they were reported a couple of weeks ago. I hadn’t linked to that article before, but that too was posted at Seeking Alpha.The bottom line is that both the nowcast and the long-term 12+ month forecast are reasonably clear. The short term, 3 - 9 month forecast, is a lot dicier, and depends greatly on whether Tariff Man can resist the impulse

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 - by New Deal democrat

I have a new post up at Seeking Alpha, describing the order in which data has tended to deteriorate before consumer-led recessions. A few conditions have been met; most others have not.

I have previously written that if a recession is in the works over the next few quarters, it is more likely to be a producer-led recession, a la 2001. In that regard, a few weeks ago I said that Q2 corporate profits would be a crucial report.

Well, they were reported a couple of weeks ago. I hadn’t linked to that article before, but that too was posted at Seeking Alpha.

The bottom line is that both the nowcast and the long-term 12+ month forecast are reasonably clear. The short term, 3 - 9 month forecast, is a lot dicier, and depends greatly on whether Tariff Man can resist the impulse to keep adding on de facto tax increases on American producers and consumers.

As usual, clicking over to SA and reading the posts should be educational for you, and helps reward me with a little $$$ for the effort I put in.

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