- by New Deal democrat We got two contrasting views of the economy this morning.First, the good news: residential construction spending increased in July. Below I show it in comparison with single family permits: Typically construction follows permits. In the past few years, it has been almost coincident with permits. This is more good news for the important and leading housing sector, indicating that the decline that started in early 2018 has ended. With the continued recent further decline in mortgage rates, I expect further advances, although possibly not strong.Now, the bad news: the ISM manufacturing index fell below 50 to 49.1. Worse, the leading new orders component fell to 47.2, the worst reading since the Great Recession: Typically it takes at least two readings below 48
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- by New Deal democrat