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Notes on the June JOLTS report: weakness but no imminent downturn

Summary:
- by New Deal democratI’m still on vacation, so continue to expect light posting. But I thought I’d take a look at the one piece of data that came out this week, the June JOLTS report. First of all, the “hiring leads firing” mantra continues to be true: [Note: data averaged quarterly to cut down on noise.] Interesting that hiring has been essentially flat for a full year, and total separations (“firing”) for the past three quarters. But the layoffs and discharges part of separations continues down YoY, a good thing, and what initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate also show, if weakly: But the relative weakness of the employment situation show up in the YoY% changes in hiring, voluntary quits, and job openings (all normed to zero at their current levels in the

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 - by New Deal democrat

I’m still on vacation, so continue to expect light posting. But I thought I’d take a look at the one piece of data that came out this week, the June JOLTS report.


First of all, the “hiring leads firing” mantra continues to be true:

Notes on the June JOLTS report: weakness but no imminent downturn

[Note: data averaged quarterly to cut down on noise.] Interesting that hiring has been essentially flat for a full year, and total separations (“firing”) for the past three quarters.

But the layoffs and discharges part of separations continues down YoY, a good thing, and what initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate also show, if weakly:

Notes on the June JOLTS report: weakness but no imminent downturn

But the relative weakness of the employment situation show up in the YoY% changes in hiring, voluntary quits, and job openings (all normed to zero at their current levels in the below graph):

Notes on the June JOLTS report: weakness but no imminent downturn

Note that the changes aren’t as bad as during the 2015-16 shallow industrial recession, or  immediately before the 2007 recession (they’re more like 2006 levels).

I thought I’d extend Monday’s graph of monthly manufacturing, residential construction, and temporary job changes back through the weak 2015-16 period and compare that as well:

Notes on the June JOLTS report: weakness but no imminent downturn

The “shallow industrial recession” featured more negative manufacturing and temporary jobs months than this year so far.

Again, the takeaway is weakness, but no imminent downturn.

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