- by New Deal democratAs I noted this morning, a slew of important data was released. Let me deal with the “normal” weekly and monthly data in this post. First, industrial production continues to languish, down significantly from the end of last year, whether measured in total or just as to manufacturing: The saving grace here is that it has not declined as much as it did during the 2015-16 “shallow industrial recession” which was not sufficient to cause the economy as a whole to contract. Second, initial jobless claims rose, and are (slightly) higher YoY for the first two weeks of August: The 4 week average is only about 6% higher than their trough this past April: The four week average of continuing claims, which is much less volatile, is about -2.5% lower than
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- by New Deal democrat
As I noted this morning, a slew of important data was released. Let me deal with the “normal” weekly and monthly data in this post.
The red line is real aggregate payrolls. Since sales tend to lead payrolls (note the former flattened out about 6 months before the latter prior to each of the last two recessions), this is an encouraging sign.