- by New Deal democrat I need to publish my first half forecast for 2019, but before I do, I want to see how a few leading indicators for December pan out. These include motor vehicle sales, the manufacturing workweek, new unemployment claims less than 5 weeks old -- and this morning's ISM manufacturing report. To breifly recap, my long leading indicators turned neutral 7 months ago and haven't improved since, even going negative for a few weeks. As a byproduct of that, I have been waitiing on short leading indicators to decelerate as well, which they have shown strong signs of doing recently. As part of that, two months ago I wrote that "I expect slowing [in the ISM new orders index] to continue." Today the ISM reported for December that: Manufacturing expanded in
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As part of that, two months ago I wrote that "I expect slowing [in the ISM new orders index] to continue."
Manufacturing expanded in December, as the PMI registered 54.1 percent, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points from the November reading of 59.3 percent. “This indicates growth in manufacturing for the 28th consecutive month. The PMIrecorded a substantial softening in December and retreated to a level not seen since November 2016, when it registered 53.4 percent,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
FEB 20 64.2
MAR 16 61.9
APR 17 61.2
MAY 28 63.7
JUN 24 63.5
JUL 24 60.2
AUG 17 65.1
SEP 20 61.8
OCT 18 57.4