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Reap the Whirlwind

Summary:
The dirty little secret of every riot and protest and looting that ever existed in the history of mankind … IT’S FUN.Lucifer’s Hammer on Epsilon Theory, August 31, 2020 During the summer of 2020, as widespread non-violent protests for racial justice gave way to steadily creeping violence and property destruction, we published our concerns on these pages that there was practically zero political will – and zero political incentive – by either party to do what was necessary to reduce that violence. Republicans and Donald Trump believed that the violence at a number of BLM-related events would be framed alongside deeply unpopular “defund the police” narratives as long as they continued. They believed, I think, that this framing would be electorally helpful. However perverse,

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Reap the Whirlwind

The dirty little secret of every riot and protest and looting that ever existed in the history of mankind … IT’S FUN.

Lucifer’s Hammer on Epsilon Theory, August 31, 2020

During the summer of 2020, as widespread non-violent protests for racial justice gave way to steadily creeping violence and property destruction, we published our concerns on these pages that there was practically zero political will – and zero political incentive – by either party to do what was necessary to reduce that violence.

Republicans and Donald Trump believed that the violence at a number of BLM-related events would be framed alongside deeply unpopular “defund the police” narratives as long as they continued. They believed, I think, that this framing would be electorally helpful. However perverse, from a purely electoral perspective I believe they were right on both counts. They did not win the presidency, of course, but on most ballots the GOP outperformed very low expectations. I think antipathy toward the events of the summer played a significant role.

Still, if he wished to do so, Donald Trump possessed and did not exercise meaningful power to de-escalate and reduce this violence at multiple points.

Democratic leaders at state and local levels had even more power, I would argue. They also largely elected not to exercise that power, if for very different reasons. In their case, I think there was genuine concern that calling in resources like the National Guard to maintain order would be seen as a betrayal of the very arguments about the nature of state power deployed against black communities being made by those protesting. More practically, I think they believed that this action would have the effect of increasing voter apathy for an already moderate-looking slate. More perversely, I think they felt some confidence that generally sympathetic national media would be very unlikely to pay very close attention to what was happening at some of these rallies, lest doing so unduly influence the electorate to make a Wrong Decision. I think the Democrats were right about each of these things.

No, they weren’t right. They were correct. They – and the GOP – were correct in their evaluation of optimal electoral strategy under the conditions of a competition game. But there was nothing right about allowing the destructive LARPing that took place in the late summer by activists and counter-activists alike to continue unabated.

Bad things happen when the equilibrium state of national politics is to be nearly always correct and nearly never right.

Or, in the words we published in August:

They are both sowing the wind.

And they will both reap the whirlwind.

Neither the Democratic party nor the Republican party survives a defeat this November in anything close to their current form. I think several people are starting to think about that.

But here’s what’s also true:

Neither the Democratic party nor the Republican party survives a victory this November.

And no one is thinking about that.

Luficer’s Hammer on Epsilon Theory, August 31, 2020

The GOP is reaping the whirlwind today.

The sowing of militaristic language and existential Flight 93 Election rhetoric by the political right led directly to one of the most embarrassing days in the history of our Republic. No, I don’t think those Clown Putsch buffoons attempted to stage a coup. But a crowd of 330 million just watched a crowd of 330 million watch thousands of pastors, pipefitters, engineers, Q activists and business owners together wrap themselves in Trump flags and parade through the halls of the US Capitol. They watched them charge into the chambers with plastic cuffs and Tazers. They heard the “hang Mike Pence” chants. They saw a mob with thin blue line flags literally try to beat Capitol Police officers with them.

And then those 330 million saw lockstep claims by some half of sitting GOP representatives and most of their favored news anchors that these were the actions of Antifa. Without evidence. And without apology.

If you think the media purposefully made less of the violence this summer than an institution less transparently politically invested in the defeat of Donald Trump might have done, I think you are correct. If you think that what happened on 1/6 will ever be seen by a country that watched last week’s images in real time in the same category as the events of the summer, I think you are insane.

As Ben wrote before, the Republican party probably does not survive this in anything close to its previous form.

But make no mistake about it: The sowing of affinity for The Right Kind of Violence we saw in the summer and affinity for The Right Kind of Concentrated Power that we are seeing manifest today on the political left will have lasting results, too. The collective and collusive de-platforming of individuals and app developers happening over the last few days is, by any reasonable account, entirely within the legal rights afforded to Twitter, Facebook, Apple, Google, Amazon and scores of associated service providers under current law. In the very short run (i.e. over the period of a week), I think it is very likely that these actions could reduce the potential for violence.

In the long run?

Friends, the political forces that galvanized support for Trumpism were built on the foundations of a belief that conservatives are not given a fair shake in media, a belief that Big Tech firms run by wealthy, liberal, elites seek to control the lives of hard-working American families, and a belief that a coordinated political-technological infrastructure has led directly to their political marginalization. You can think they are incorrect. You can even think that they are wrong. But if you think that these actions will reduce the influence of Trumpism, political division, polarization and willingness to do violence, so are you.

There is substantial territory that exists between flaccid permissiveness toward the people who committed, sought to commit or directly incited violence to influence the outcome of an election on the one hand, and gleefully instituting widespread political purges that will exacerbate the long-term consequences in exchange for warm justice fuzzies today on the other.

There is a brief window where I think we have the opportunity to commit to building a common national identity together. Seizing this opportunity will mean a lot of us demonstrating corporate humility for actions we may not have taken ourselves, actions of which we bristle at being called guilty, but which in our heart of hearts we know we could have spoken up or taken more action to help prevent. Seizing this opportunity will mean a lot of us leaving a wellspring of anger we will feel is entirely justified at the door.

Not seizing it, I fear, will mean that we all reap the whirlwind.

Rusty Guinn
Executive Vice President of Asset Management, Salient. Rusty Guinn is the executive vice president of asset management at Salient. He oversees Salient’s retail and institutional asset management business, including investment teams, products, and strategy. Rusty shares his perspective and experience as an investor on the Epsilon Theory website.

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