Saturday , October 19 2019
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Mailbag

Summary:
I don’t write many Mailbag notes these days. That’s partly because I’ve got so many words burning through my fingers to get out in new notes, but it’s even more so because we’ve created an ongoing Mailbag on the Epsilon Theory website … a place BY Pack members and FOR Pack members, where you’ll find some of the smartest commentary going, and where Rusty and I are in full engagement. At last count, we’ve got something like 2,000 published comments. It’s one of the best things on the internet today. And yes, our Comment section is for paying subscribers only. It’s the smartest thing we ever did. But these two conversations with Pack members deserve a wider circulation. They deserve a Mailbag note. First from T. Dear Ben,Six months ago, you extended free

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Mailbag
Mailbag

I don’t write many Mailbag notes these days.

That’s partly because I’ve got so many words burning through my fingers to get out in new notes, but it’s even more so because we’ve created an ongoing Mailbag on the Epsilon Theory website … a place BY Pack members and FOR Pack members, where you’ll find some of the smartest commentary going, and where Rusty and I are in full engagement. At last count, we’ve got something like 2,000 published comments. It’s one of the best things on the internet today.

And yes, our Comment section is for paying subscribers only. It’s the smartest thing we ever did.

But these two conversations with Pack members deserve a wider circulation. They deserve a Mailbag note.

First from T.

Dear Ben,

Six months ago, you extended free premium membership to me because I work in Iraq as an archaeologist. I wanted you to get a sense of what the Epsilon Theory gift means to me.

Everyday we live the widening gyre in ways that Americans don’t appreciate. I work in Ashur, a world heritage site that one day, I hope, will be open again to the world. In order to work there, I rely on human kindness to make the impossible possible. To give you a sense of our gyre.

Archaeologists are targets. We can’t afford private security, so [REDACTED] donates his time and his bodyguard to escort us through ex-ISIS territory to get to Ashur. Once we cross out of the safe zone, the Jaboori tribe (a Sunni tribe) keep us safe with extra patrols and security. We drive through village after village where the war has left a trail of destruction. 

Once you arrive at the once beautiful world heritage site of Ashur, a picturesque complex of ruins on the banks of the Tigris, ISIS’ legacy is in full view. ISIS and its supporters had destroyed the museum, the protective cover for the royal tombs, and the ancient gateway. They systematically stripped the residential house and the local archaeology office. The first night, we slept on the floor, with a drip of water as a “shower”.

However, Ashur is a story of resilience. The local village (Sabka) did not have a single ISIS member. With a small private donation, we turned the taps back on, and we rewired the main house and the guard’s house so that we could get a reliable source of electricity. The local staff started work at 530 AM every day, working 14 hour days, in a country where 9 to 2 is considered sufficient. They donated their time so that our team could finish 3 full days of drone flights in order to take almost 12,000 aerial photographs of the site.

Afterwards, I flew to Baghdad to meet the Ministry and the team from the State Board of Archaeology and Heritage to discuss the future of Ashur. Everyone is helping because of a shared connection to a wondrous place that deserves better.

This is my pack. I hope you and Rusty will come visit it one day.

Best wishes from Iraq,
T.

I asked T. for permission to reprint his email, and he graciously agreed. Here’s a picture T. forwarded of the damaged archaeology office on the left and the damaged archaeology site on the right.

Mailbag
Mailbag

More importantly, T. also forwarded the overview deck for the entire project, which you can download here.

They’re using the drone-based photos to set up drone-based magnetometry and ground-penetrating radar (GPR) studies on the structures below … amazing stuff.

Mailbag

This is our Pack.

AS BELOW, SO ABOVE.


And now from David H. as reprinted from the comments section of The Long Now, Pt. 2 – Make, Protect, Teach.

Long time listener, first time caller.

There are many thing I love about ET, but one of the best things about it is the truths it reveals – truths that are right in front of us but that we don’t see until they are revealed by the truthtellers of ET. I can’t tell you how many ET notes I have read that have made me say “Yes!” and helped me better understand the world.

But not this note.

The “Make, Protect, Teach” principle Ben espouses misses the mark for me. There is a kernel of truth to it, but only a kernel, and it would set us down the wrong path. The error in the “Make, Protect, Teach” principle is in equating a person’s occupation – what they do to make money and survive in this world – with that person’s value to society. Now, I’m not saying a person’s occupation has no correlation to their value to society, but it is not a direct correlation. Take teachers for instance. Just being a teacher doesn’t make you a positive member of society. There are lots of small-minded, petty, vindictive, and generally crappy teachers out there. And by the same token, being a corporate lawyer, banker, or member of business management doesn’t mean that you aren’t a positive member of society. These occupations (and, full disclosure, I am one of those nasty corporate lawyers everyone loves to hate) are all vital and necessary to modern society and have every bit as much intrinsic value to society as those extolled in the note as being “Make, Protect, Teach”-worthy.

For me, it is not what you do but how you do it. Let me explain. I believe that life is the Great Mystery; an unsolvable puzzle. We understand only a small fraction of what goes on around us, and can only hope to gain a slightly better understanding during our lives. My belief that we live in a fundamental state of mystery underlies my small “l” liberal beliefs. Given the unknowable nature of life, all people need the freedom to believe and act differently, to make mistakes (or what I believe to be mistakes), to be wrong (or what I believe to be wrong), to be different. There are three things that give value to my “mysterious” life:

1. Enjoyment. Have fun, Life is a gift!
2. Increasing my personal understanding of life’s mysteries. Think Big Thoughts!
3. Helping others (family, friends, acquaintances) do 1 and 2.

For me, the pursuit of the “good life” is the pursuit of these three things, for myself and others. Jim Valvano said there are three things we should do every day: 1) Laugh; 2) Think; and 3) Have your emotions moved to tears. I don’t do these every day, but I aspire to. I believe that there are three things that give any person “value” to society: 1) Do they enjoy life and help others enjoy their lives?; 2) Are they both truthful and truth-seeking and do they help other seek truth in their lives?; and 3) Do they love and support their family, friends, acquaintances as they seek to maneuver through life’s great mystery? So, an artist that creates a work of art that helps millions better understand life has great value to society. On the other hand, an artist that creates small-minded drivel that speaks to no one has very little value to society. It is not what you do, it is how you do it. “Make, Protect, Teach” is close, but for me it is “Spread Joy, Seek/Tell Truth, Love/Support Others”.

And by the way Ben, despite my disagreement with this note, you are the best Truthteller I have ever known. As always, thanks for making me Think.

– David H.

Heard.

When I wrote this note, I really struggled with the idea of giving too much citizenship “weight” to one’s JOB. As David points out, there are plenty of sociopathic, bad citizens who are also teachers or police or engineers. And there are plenty of full-hearted good citizens who are lawyers or management or bureaucrats. But I really do think (and there’s a long-winded Bayesian argument here that I won’t bore you with), that choosing a profession that inherently emphasizes some notion of service over money (in my lingo, Make/Protect/Teach) over a profession that inherently emphasizes the reverse is a MEANINGFUL SIGNAL that you are a citizen. It’s not the only meaningful signal! Coaching a kids’ soccer team … setting up a Maker space at the local library … spending your time (NOT just your money!) in service to your Pack … these are ALL meaningful (and sufficient) signals that you’re in the Make/Protect/Teach framework.

EITHER of these signals is enough for me to give you the presumption of citizenship in the M/P/T framework.

The reason I’m focused on signals is that I’m trying to find a recipe for a mass society – a nation of hundreds of millions of people – to organize their shared concept of citizenship on something that can’t be BOUGHT and something that requires SERVICE, without creating a caste system of “approved” jobs or a requirement for “national service”. Using signals (EITHER a job that inherently favors service over money OR an inherently service-oriented use of your time) will have lots of false positives (“bad” citizens who generate a “good” signal). But that’s far more just than a system that generates lots of false negatives (“good” citizens who do not generate a “good” signal).

I do disagree with David on two points. First, just thinking well-meaning and society-supporting thoughts is not enough. It’s necessary but not sufficient. There must also be ACTION taken in support of those thoughts. Second, the outcome of that action isn’t the important thing, it’s the EFFORT. It doesn’t matter to me if an artist does crappy art that no one likes. It doesn’t matter to me if a writer publishes a crappy blog that no one reads. What matters to me (and I know that I sound like a contestant on The Bachelorette when I say this) is that Makers/Protectors/Teachers are Making/Protecting/Teaching FOR THE RIGHT REASONS. That’s a really tough thing to evaluate in a mass society (much less a small society like the cast of a reality TV show) – which is why I focus on signals and erring on the side of false positives – but I think it’s the right place to make an evaluation.

One last observation … this is the first in-depth conversation I think I’ve ever had with my brother on the meaning of life (and all that). I’m 55 years old and he’s 53. If Epsilon Theory stopped tomorrow, experiencing THIS ALONE would have made it ALL worthwhile. Full-hearted engagement, bringing us closer together … THIS is our purpose. Thank you, David. I love you.

AS BELOW, SO ABOVE.


As Bill Simmons used to say, “yep, these are my readers.” He meant it as a joke after a silly email, and that’s how I’ve used it in the past, too. But no silly or funny emails today. Just clear eyes and full hearts. Because … you know … can’t lose.

Yes, these are OUR readers, and this is OUR Pack, and this is OUR platform for thought and action in service to that Pack.

Watch from a distance if you like. But when you’re ready … join us.


About Ben Hunt
Ben Hunt
He is the chief investment strategist at Salient, a $14 billion asset manager based in Houston and San Francisco, and the author of Epsilon Theory, a newsletter and website that examines markets through the lenses of game theory and history. Over 100,000 professional investors and allocators read Epsilon Theory for its fresh perspective into market dynamics.

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