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Regression to Trend: Another Look at Long-Term Market Performance

Summary:
[unable to retrieve full-text content] Quick take: At the end of March the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 158% above its long-term trend, unchanged from 158% above the previous month. About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.

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[unable to retrieve full-text content]

Quick take: At the end of March the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 158% above its long-term trend, unchanged from 158% above the previous month.

About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.

Doug Short
My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I'm a first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke and a lifelong interest in economics and finance. In 2011 my website was acquired by Advisor Perspectives.

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