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New Jobless Claims: Down 12K, Better Than Forecast

Summary:
Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending November 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 260,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 271,000 to 272,000. The 4-week moving average was 271,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 270,750 to 271,000. There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. [See full report] Today's seasonally adjusted 260K new claims was down 12K from last week, below the Investing.com forecast of 270K. The four-week moving average is at 271,000, unchanged from last week's revised number. Here is a close look at the data over the past few years (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend in relation to the last recession and the volatility in recent months. As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series. The headline Unemployment Insurance data is seasonally adjusted.

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Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:

In the week ending November 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 260,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 271,000 to 272,000. The 4-week moving average was 271,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 270,750 to 271,000.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. [See full report]

Today's seasonally adjusted 260K new claims was down 12K from last week, below the Investing.com forecast of 270K.

The four-week moving average is at 271,000, unchanged from last week's revised number.

Here is a close look at the data over the past few years (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend in relation to the last recession and the volatility in recent months.

New Jobless Claims: Down 12K, Better Than Forecast

As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.

New Jobless Claims: Down 12K, Better Than Forecast

The headline Unemployment Insurance data is seasonally adjusted. What does the non-seasonally adjusted data look like? See the chart below, which clearly shows extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data (the red dots). The 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change (note, for example, those regular January spikes).

New Jobless Claims: Down 12K, Better Than Forecast

Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, we can add a 52-week moving average to give a better sense of the secular trends. The chart below also has a linear regression through the data. We can see that this metric continues to fall below the long-term trend stretching back to 1968.

New Jobless Claims: Down 12K, Better Than Forecast

Annual Comparisons

Here is a calendar-year overlay since 2009 using the 4-week moving average. The purpose is to compare the annual slopes since the peak in the spring of 2009.

New Jobless Claims: Down 12K, Better Than Forecast

For an analysis of unemployment claims as a percent of the labor force, see our recent commentary What Do Weekly Unemployment Claims Tell us About Recession Risk? Here is a snapshot from that analysis.

New Jobless Claims: Down 12K, Better Than Forecast

For a broader view of unemployment, see the latest update in our monthly series Unemployment and the Market Since 1948.

Jill Mislinski
Jill has been working with Advisor Perspectives since 2012 and is currently their Research Director as part of Doug Short’s team. Her background is in mathematics and physics and she holds a Master of Science in Physical Science with a concentration in physics and astronomy from the University of Chicago.

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