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29/7/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

Summary:
Updating main charts for global COVID19 cases and deaths through today's data:Global New Cases: We are continuing to hit all-time highs in new cases globally as the pandemic shows no signs of moderation.Week-to-date, daily case numbers ranked within top 10 in six days, including four all-time highs in the last 7 days.  Historical mean of daily new cases is currently at 82,601. Last seven days average daily new cases count is 255,262. This is more than 2.2 standard deviations higher than the historical average. 30-days running average is 217,092 which is more than 0.5 standard deviations below the 7-days average. Last local max was observed in early April 2020. Since then, the pandemic trend has been persistently upward. Global Daily Deaths: The trend in daily deaths counts is

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Updating main charts for global COVID19 cases and deaths through today's data:

Global New Cases:

29/7/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

We are continuing to hit all-time highs in new cases globally as the pandemic shows no signs of moderation.

  • Week-to-date, daily case numbers ranked within top 10 in six days, including four all-time highs in the last 7 days. 
  • Historical mean of daily new cases is currently at 82,601. Last seven days average daily new cases count is 255,262. This is more than 2.2 standard deviations higher than the historical average. 30-days running average is 217,092 which is more than 0.5 standard deviations below the 7-days average.
  • Last local max was observed in early April 2020. Since then, the pandemic trend has been persistently upward.
Global Daily Deaths:
29/7/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

The trend in daily deaths counts is re-accelerating and starting to approach past peak:
  • In the last 10 days, deaths increased 14.1% over the previous 10 days period, reversing the negative rates of growth between June 26 and July 9.
  • Historical mean is 3,269 deaths per day, with the last 30-days average at 5,214 and the last 7 days average at 6,258. Current 7-days average is 0.75 standard deviations higher than the historical average.
  • The rate of new deaths arrivals has been slower than the rate of growth in new cases until 20/07/2020. Since then, the rate of new deaths growth is exceeding the rate of new cases arrivals. Both are positive (chart next):
29/7/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

As noted consistently in my posts, deaths are lagged to cases, but in addition, changes in geography of new cases (with an added change in methodology for attributing deaths in a range of developing countries, compared to the EU methodology) drive lower death counts in recent months. In addition, lags between new cases are being extended, while deaths and death rates per confirmed case are also being held lower by younger demographics of new cases in the U.S. and around the world.

All of this contributed to the growing sense of complacency amongst global policy leaders during the recent period of moderate deaths arrivals - from the late April through mid-July. It now appears that such complacency was premature, as death rates are now rising once again.

Summary tables of the largest pandemic cases by country (countries with > 25,000 cases):
29/7/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

29/7/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

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