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25/720: Updated: America’s Scariest Charts: Unemployment Claims

Summary:
Updating my Scariest Charts for the latest data, through thee week of July 18, 2020:First, a summary table and chart for changes in the Initial Unemployment Claims: Next: Continued Unemployment Claims through the week of July 11, 2020: Key takeaways this week: Continued unemployment claims changes:Latest count at 16,197,000, down from 17,304,000 a week ago - a decline driven by both, re-gained jobs and exits from unemployment benefits; Latest week w/w decline is faster than in any of the prior weeks of the current recession; Latest counts are 14,495,000 above the levels recorded in the first week of the current recession and are 14,548,000 above pre-recession trough; At last week's rate of decline, we have 13 weeks of unemployment claims to work through before recovering to

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Updating my Scariest Charts for the latest data, through thee week of July 18, 2020:

First, a summary table and chart for changes in the Initial Unemployment Claims:

25/720: Updated: America's Scariest Charts: Unemployment Claims

25/720: Updated: America's Scariest Charts: Unemployment Claims

Next: Continued Unemployment Claims through the week of July 11, 2020:

25/720: Updated: America's Scariest Charts: Unemployment Claims

25/720: Updated: America's Scariest Charts: Unemployment Claims

Key takeaways this week:

Continued unemployment claims changes:

  • Latest count at 16,197,000, down from 17,304,000 a week ago - a decline driven by both, re-gained jobs and exits from unemployment benefits;
  • Latest week w/w decline is faster than in any of the prior weeks of the current recession;
  • Latest counts are 14,495,000 above the levels recorded in the first week of the current recession and are 14,548,000 above pre-recession trough;
  • At last week's rate of decline, we have 13 weeks of unemployment claims to work through before recovering to pre-recession levels; based on the last 4 weeks average - 19 weeks.
New unemployment claims changes:
  • Latest new unemployment claims filed figures are the lowest in the current recession cycle, but materially close to those recorded in the week of July 4, 2020;
  • Nonetheless, we are now in 18 weeks of continued new unemployment claims filings in excess of 1 million per week.
Longer term view:
  • Discontinuation of emergency $600/week unemployment support payment or curtailing of the benefit is likely to push both of the above series down in the short run in mid- to late-August, with a knock-on longer term effect of increasing longer term unemployment claims in September and onward. 

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