Sunday , April 5 2020
Home / Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics / 23/3/20: Private Consumption Gets the Virus. Heads to an ICU…

23/3/20: Private Consumption Gets the Virus. Heads to an ICU…

Summary:
Via @bkollmeyer, Deutsche Bank's Research chart on discretionary spending across the global economy: I have no access to the primary data on this, but if the chart is true, the global economy is 'borked'. One notable line here is for Ireland. Ireland's economy is heavily dependent on personal consumption expenditure. Here are the latest data:    PC as % of     modified     total    demand        PC as %          of GNI*     1995-199958.857.6     2000-200754.755.2200754.156.7     2008-201462.863.8     2015-201859.455.4201958.7               NA My estimate is that 2019 Personal Consumption to GNI* ratio was around 55.2%. If true, coupled with the above-cited DB research, Irish economy has taken a nosedive of around 4 percentage points for FY 2020 just on personal consumption side of

Topics:
[email protected] (TrueEconomics) considers the following as important: , , , , , , ,

This could be interesting, too:

[email protected] (TrueEconomics) writes 2/4/20: US Record in Covid Response To-Date

[email protected] (TrueEconomics) writes 2/4/20: COVID19 in three charts

Lance Roberts writes Previous Employment Concerns Becoming An Ugly Reality

Guest Author writes Michael Markowski: Markets Now At Tipping Point, Ride Will Be Epic.


Via @bkollmeyer, Deutsche Bank's Research chart on discretionary spending across the global economy:

23/3/20: Private Consumption Gets the Virus. Heads to an ICU...

I have no access to the primary data on this, but if the chart is true, the global economy is 'borked'. 

One notable line here is for Ireland. Ireland's economy is heavily dependent on personal consumption expenditure. Here are the latest data:

    PC as % of
    modified
    total
   demand
        PC as %          of GNI*
     1995-199958.857.6
     2000-200754.755.2
200754.156.7
     2008-201462.863.8
     2015-201859.455.4
201958.7               NA

My estimate is that 2019 Personal Consumption to GNI* ratio was around 55.2%. If true, coupled with the above-cited DB research, Irish economy has taken a nosedive of around 4 percentage points for FY 2020 just on personal consumption side of economic activity. Investment and private sector production will be the other contributors to that decline.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *