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8/8/19: Upbeat Jobs Reports Miss Some Real Points

Summary:
Unemployment claims down, the weekly jobs report seemed to have triggered the usual litany of positive commentary in the business media But all is not cheerful in the U.S. labor markets, once you start scratching below the surface. Here are two broader metrics of labor markets health: the civilian employment to population ratio and the labor force participation rate, based on monthly data through July: The above shows thatCivilian labor force participation rate is running still below the levels last seen in the late 1970s, and the current recovery period average (close to the latests monthly running rate) is below any recovery period average since the second half 1970s recession end. You have to go back to the mid-1980s to find comparable 'expansion period'-consistent levels of

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Unemployment claims down, the weekly jobs report seemed to have triggered the usual litany of positive commentary in the business media

8/8/19: Upbeat Jobs Reports Miss Some Real Points

But all is not cheerful in the U.S. labor markets, once you start scratching below the surface. Here are two broader metrics of labor markets health: the civilian employment to population ratio and the labor force participation rate, based on monthly data through July:

8/8/19: Upbeat Jobs Reports Miss Some Real Points

The above shows that

  1. Civilian labor force participation rate is running still below the levels last seen in the late 1970s, and the current recovery period average (close to the latests monthly running rate) is below any recovery period average since the second half 1970s recession end.
  2. You have to go back to the mid-1980s to find comparable 'expansion period'-consistent levels of labor force participation rate as we have today. This is dire. Current recovery-period and President Trump's tenure period averages for labor force participation rate sit below all recovery periods' averages from 1984 through 2006. 
So much for upbeat jobs reports.

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