Bitcoin Will Fall Further Before Another Bull Rally, Says Analyst

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Ibrahim Anifowoshe
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The Bitcoin dip is not over yet. Analyst predict that the short-term price woes may continue to $26,000.

On Thursday, the cryptocurrency fell by 13% in a spot market well-off. Earlier on Friday, it hit a low of $28,845, the lowest since January 4. Few hours after, the Cryptocurrency regained a quick run to $31,000 before pulling a stop. At 12:42 GMT, the pioneer cryptocurrency was trading at $31,645.

Ki-Young Ju, the CEO of blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant mentioned highlighted a negative “Coinbase premium” as a prove of the weak dip demand from large investors.

I’m not sure the low of $28,000 seen early Friday is the bottom

CryptoQuant’s Coinbase premium indicator measures the spread between Coinbase’s BTC/USD pair and Binance’s BTC/USDT pair, which includes the stablecoin tether (USDT, +0.08%). Strong institutional inflows is seen with a positive spread. This is because Coinbase is seen a high net-worth individuals and institutional investors.

Although prices have regained to $31,000, the spread is on the negative. Suggesting a lack of demand from big institutional investors. The coinbase premium fell to $-227 in the last 24 hours. Which, according to Ju, Bitcoin consistently traded at a premium of over $50 on Coinbase during the $20,000 to $40,000 bull rally.

For Grayscale, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Premium, the premium has all almost evaporated. A sign of weakening institutional demand. While retail investors directly but Bitcoin on the spot market, many institutional investors invest through Grayscale Bitcoin Trust for regulatory reasons.

Matthew Dibb, COO and co-founder of Singapore-based Stack Funds, also cited the negative Coinbase premium as a cause of concern for the bulls. He told Coinbase on Whatsapp:

Bitcoin broke short-term support on Thursday, and while the market is trading positively now, we may see lows down to the $26,000 mark in the coming weeks

According to popular Twitter trader “Cred,” a move above $35,000 is needed to abort the bearish view. He said:

$BTC, which would likely underperform in those circumstances, must reclaim $35000s at least.

No clear read from me in these conditions.

For longs:

i) $ETH needs to meaningfully break ATH.
ii) $BTC, which would likely underperform in those circumstances, must reclaim $35000s at least.

Absent those setups, just gonna chill and avoid burning through trading fees.

— Cred (@CryptoCred) January 20, 2021

Patrick Heusser, head of trading at Swiss-based Crypto Broker AG said:

That level could be put to the test, as the derivative market is more relaxed now, and we have seen some good buying interest around $30,000. The perpetual funding rates and futures premium are reverting toward their mean from elevated levels observed earlier this month when bitcoin was trading near record highs.

Down but stacking

Despite the dip, it seems that many are still hopeful of what the cryptocurrency will bring. At least, Bitcoin is still up 6% on a year-to-date basis and up over 35% from the price of $23,000 seen precisely a month ago. It appears some investors are stacking up for the possible bull rally. Jehan Chu, managing partner at Hong Kong-based crypto investment firm Kenetic Capital, said:

Veteran investors in Asia are holding strong and taking the opportunity to stack higher. The history of bitcoin is littered with such shakeouts, and we expect a whipsaw reversal to $50,000 in short order.

Bitcoin has continued to take a beating throughout the week. There’s renewed interest in regulations and bearish comments by influencers and popular investors.

If you have any questions and comments on Bitcoin today, use the form below to reply.

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