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The Biden 8.1 Million Vote Landslide! (corrected post)

Summary:
Some folks are seeing this election as a squeaker for Biden since we saw close races in key states. This has concealed the fact that Biden actually is winning the popular vote by a large margin. Since many votes are still not counted across the country I thought I would do a simple exercise where I projected margins for the votes outstanding in each state. Much of this is naturally guesswork, but hopefully not too nutty. I applied some simple rules. As we have seen, the vast majority of mail-in ballots are for Biden, even in pro-Trump areas. This means that I assumed in most states that the remaining vote was more pro-Biden than the vote already recorded. In the pro-Trump states, I assumed there was no margin for the outstanding votes. This would not have made a huge difference since in

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Some folks are seeing this election as a squeaker for Biden since we saw close races in key states. This has concealed the fact that Biden actually is winning the popular vote by a large margin. Since many votes are still not counted across the country I thought I would do a simple exercise where I projected margins for the votes outstanding in each state.

Much of this is naturally guesswork, but hopefully not too nutty. I applied some simple rules. As we have seen, the vast majority of mail-in ballots are for Biden, even in pro-Trump areas. This means that I assumed in most states that the remaining vote was more pro-Biden than the vote already recorded.

In the pro-Trump states, I assumed there was no margin for the outstanding votes. This would not have made a huge difference since in most of these states 98 percent of the vote was already in, but it seems plausible that Biden would have come close in the votes outstanding in these states. (I used the NYT data from 11:00 A.M. on Saturday, November 7th.) For other states, I assumed more of a pro-Biden tilt. As we saw, in Pennsylvania the mail-in votes went to Biden by a margin of around 50 percentage points. I assumed margins of 40 pp in a number of states (a 70-30 margin) and somewhat smaller margins in other states. In CA I assumed the remaining votes would follow the same pattern as the votes reported to date.

Here’s the story:

  Current       Percent   Assumed   Adjustment Adj Margin
  Biden Trump Margin   reported   Margin        
AK 56.6 108.2 -31.3%   56.0%   -31.3%   -41   -92
AL 843.5 1434.1 -25.9%   98.0%   0.0%   0   -591
Ark 421 761.3 -28.8%   98.0%   0.0%   0   -340
AZ  1626.9 1606.4 0.6%   97.0%   0.6%   1   21
CA 8180 4152 32.7%   77.0%   40.0%   1,473   5,501
CO 1753.4 1335.3 13.5%   95.0%   13.5%   22   440
CT 1058.8 698.7 20.5%   97.0%   40.0%   22   382
DC 258.6 14.4 89.5%   80.0%   89.5%   61   305
DE 295.4 199.9 19.3%   98.0%   30.0%   3   99
FL 5269.9 5646.9 -3.5%   96.0%   3.5%   16   -361
Georgia 2461.5 2454.2 0.1%   98.0%   40.0%   40   47
HI 365.8 196.6 30.1%   98.0%   30.1%   3   173
Idaho 287 554 -31.7%   98.0%   0.0%   0   -267
IL 3016.8 2330.7 12.8%   89.0%   30.0%   198   884
IN 1239.5 1727.1 -16.4%   98.0%   0.0%   0   -488
Iowa 757.8 865.5 -6.6%   92.0%   30.0%   42   -65
Kan 542.6 748.6 -16.0%   98.0%   0.0%   0   -206
Ken 777.8 1342.5 -26.6%   98.0%   0.0%   0   -565
Louis 855.6 1255.5 -18.9%   98.0%   0.0%   0   -400
Maine 419.3 340.5 10.4%   91.0%   30.0%   23   101
Mass 2246.3 1117.3 33.6%   92.0%   40.0%   117   1,246
MD 1367.1 760 28.5%   70.0%   40.0%   365   972
MI  2794.9 2647 2.7%   98.0%   40.0%   44   192
Minn 1717.9 1485.6 7.3%   96.0%   40.0%   53   286
Miss 447.2 683.5 -20.9%   86.0%   0.0%   0   -236
MO 1242.9 1711.8 -15.9%   98.0%   0.0%   0   -469
MT 243.7 341.8 -16.8%   98.0%   0.0%   0   -98
NC 2656.3 2732.8 -1.4%   98.0%   30.0%   33   -44
ND 114.7 235 -34.4%   91.0%   0.0%   0   -120
NE 367.9 550.2 -19.9%   98.0%   0.0%   0   -182
Nev 642.6 616.9 2.0%   94.0%   2.0%   2   27
NH  422.3 365.2 7.3%   98.0%   30.0%   5   62
NJ 2057.6 1414.1 18.5%   78.0%   40.0%   392   1,035
NM 497.8 400.8 10.8%   98.0%   30.0%   6   103
NY 4236 2934.1 18.2%   84.0%   40.0%   546   1,848
OH 2576.6 3038.2 -8.2%   90.0%   40.0%   250   -212
OK 503.9 1020.3 -33.9%   96.0%   0.0%   0   -516
OR 1318.5 942.7 16.6%   97.0%   16.6%   12   387
PA 3345.7 3311.3 0.5%   98.0%   40.0%   54   89
RI 300.3 197.7 20.6%   97.0%   40.0%   6   109
SC 1092.5 1386.2 -11.8%   98.0%   0.0%   0   -294
SD 150.5 260.1 -26.7%   98.0%   0.0%   0   -110
TN 1139.4 1849.8 -23.8%   98.0%   0.0%   0   -710
TX 5215.8 5872.1 -5.9%   97.0%   30.0%   103   -553
UT 444.5 701.1 -22.4%   88.0%   -22.4%   -35   -292
VA 2380.9 1953.8 9.9%   98.0%   30.0%   27   454
VT 227.2 111.1 34.3%   95.0%   40.0%   7   123
WA 2286.3 1498.3 20.8%   95.0%   20.8%   41   829
WI 1630.6 1610 0.6%   98.0%   40.0%   26   47
WV 259.2 589.8 -38.9%   98.0%   0.0%   0   -331
WY 73.4 193.5 -45.0%   98.0%   0.0%   0   -120
                       
                      8,101

 

I get a bottom line for a final adjusted margin of 8,101,000 votes. If anyone sees an obvious problem with my calculations, I welcome corrections.

(Note: I had originally had the margin at 9.7 million, but had two errors pointed out to me on Twitter.)

The post The Biden 8.1 Million Vote Landslide! (corrected post) appeared first on Center for Economic and Policy Research.

Dean Baker
I am a senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (@ceprdc). I also run the blog Beat the Press (@beat_the_press)

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