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The author Dr. Ed Yardeni
Dr. Ed Yardeni
Dr. Ed Yardeni is the President and Chief Investment Strategist of Yardeni Research, Inc., a provider of independent investment strategy and economics research for institutional investors. In this blog, we highlight some of the more interesting relationships and developments that should be of interest to investors. Our premium research service is designed for institutional investors.

Dr. Ed Yardeni

Bogleheads® on Investing Podcast Episode 022 – Dr. Ed Yardeni, host Rick Ferri (audio only)

Dr. Ed Yardeni (https://www.yardeni.com/yardeni-bio/) is a long-time veteran of the investment industry and the President of Yardeni Research, Inc. (https://www.yardeni.com/), a provider of global investment and asset allocation research. He previously served as Chief Investment Strategist at Oak Associates, Prudential Equity Group, and Deutsche Bank’s US equities division in NYC, and was also the Chief Economist of CJ Lawrence, Prudential-Bache Securities, and EF Hutton. Ed started...

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Fast & Furious Business Cycle

The current business cycle has been unprecedented. It has been fast and furious so far. Last year’s recession was among the worst in US history, but it lasted just two months. The V-shaped recovery in real GDP has been one of the fastest on record, with real GDP likely to surpass its previous Q4-2019 record high during the current quarter. That means that the full recovery in real GDP lasted five quarters, with the economy now in the expansion phase of the business cycle. Not surprisingly,...

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Lots of Liquidity

While the debate rages on over whether inflation is transitory or long lasting, there’s no debating that an enormous amount of liquid assets has piled up since the start of the pandemic. The accumulation began with a mad dash for cash by panicked individuals and businesses. But since “Modern Monetary Theory Week” (March 23-27, 2020), when the Fed and the Treasury (a.k.a. “T-Fed”) joined forces, the huge accumulation of liquid assets has been mostly attributable to “helicopter money.”...

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Reagan & Volcker Killed Inflation. Will Biden & Powell Bring It Back From the Dead?

President Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. (JRB) aspires to be as transformative a president as was FDR in expanding the scope and scale of the US social welfare state. Biden is also the anti-Reagan president. He loves Big Government as much as President Ronald Reagan hated it. Furthermore, he has as much faith in Big Unions as Reagan distrusted them. The Reagan Revolution didn’t last very long. President Ronald Reagan was a proponent of free-market capitalism. He was against big government. He...

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The One Percent: Off With Their Heads!

Socialists promote policies that they claim will lead to greater income equality. History shows that most countries that have embraced socialism have achieved income equality: Almost everyone is poorer than before socialism was imposed on them for their own good. Purchasing power is depressed for most people, and the quality of the goods and services they can purchase is poorer too. Socialists often declare that the rich don't pay their “fair share” of taxes and must pay more so that the...

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Running of the Bulls

Prince, Bowie, or Metallica? I’m still trying to figure out what will be the theme song for 2021. I’d been thinking “Party Like It’s 1999” by Prince until last week, when I suggested that “Space Oddity” by David Bowie might be more relevant if stock prices continue to hurtle into outer space. Either song would be consistent with a continuation of the bull market in stocks. Alternatively, perhaps I need to consider a far more pessimistic theme song like “For Whom the Bell Tolls” by...

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Outcome Rather Than Outlook; Reacting Rather Than Preempting

The Fed I: Backward Looking. Just in case we didn’t get the Fed’s memo on the change in its monetary framework, Fed Governor Lael Brainard explained it very clearly in a speech on March 23 titled “Remaining Patient as the Outlook Brightens.” Throughout her talk, she stressed very important distinctions in meaning between “outlook” and “outcome” and between “preempting” and “reacting.” She concluded her speech with her punchline: “By taking a patient approach based on outcomes [emphasis...

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The Myth of Stagnating Real Wages

In the past, I often have observed that, contrary to popular belief, inflation-adjusted wages have been expanding rather than stagnating for many years. Wage stagnation has been a popular myth perpetuated by progressives bemoaning workers’ plight to promote their own political agenda. Naturally, progressives want even more progressive income taxes on higher-income workers and more social benefits for lower-income ones. Their goal is to redistribute income to reduce income inequality....

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High-Octane Earnings

I am raising my S&P 500 operating earnings forecast for 2021 from $175 per share to $180, a 27.8% y/y increase from 2020. I am also raising my 2022 forecast from $190 to $200, an 11% increase over my new earnings target for this year. I would have raised my 2022 estimate more but for my expectation that the Biden administration will raise the corporate tax rate next year. As I've observed, the economy was hot before the third round of “relief” checks started going out around...

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