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Dr. Ed Yardeni
Dr. Ed Yardeni is the President and Chief Investment Strategist of Yardeni Research, Inc., a provider of independent investment strategy and economics research for institutional investors. In this blog, we highlight some of the more interesting relationships and developments that should be of interest to investors. Our premium research service is designed for institutional investors.

Dr. Ed Yardeni

Government Measures To Stop COVID-19 Triggering Pandemic of Fear

Our rapid-response team at Yardeni Research first responded to the coronavirus outbreak in the Monday, 1/27 issue of our Morning Briefing, which was titled “Going Viral?” That was the next business day after the outbreak first hit the headlines on Friday, 1/24. Let’s review some of our initial assessments and the latest developments: (1) Panic attack #66 could be the one that causes a global recession and a bear market. In our 1/27 analysis, we suggested that the outbreak had the potential...

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Powell Says Economy Is ‘In a Very Good Place.’ Time To Worry?

Fed I: Balanced MPR. My colleague Melissa Tagg and I read the Federal Reserve’s 71-page semi-annual Monetary Policy Report (MPR) to Congress dated February 7. We concluded that Fed officials believe the US economy is well balanced and that they will keep the federal funds rate in the current range of 1.50%-1.75%. Nevertheless, they are concerned about several global issues, which they are monitoring closely. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized during his MPR congressional...

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With Immunity to Coronavirus, US Stocks Melt Up with Impunity

I discussed the possibility of a meltup in stock prices in my 12/18/19 Morning Briefing titled “2020 Vision.” I wrote: “Another risk is that investors could conclude that there is nothing to fear but fear itself. That could lead to a meltup. When the S&P 500 rose to our 3100 target for this year on 11/15, we started to consider the possibility of a meltup scenario involving an advance to our 3500 year-end 2020 target well ahead of schedule in early 2020. We may be experiencing that...

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Fed on Hold as Inflation Remains Stubbornly Below Fed’s 2.0% Target

I believe that the 1/29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s same-day press conference suggest that the Fed is likely to stay on hold through the end of this year. Furthermore, the Fed’s next move, whenever that comes, is likelier to be a rate cut than the start of more hikes. That’s because Fed officials remain concerned that inflation has stayed stubbornly below their 2.0% target. Last year, the FOMC cut interest rates three times—on...

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Sinatra’s Stock Market: Fly Me to the Moon

If today’s stock market had a theme song, it would be “Fly Me to the Moon.” It was written in 1954 by Bart Howard and recorded by lots of top singers. Frank Sinatra and the Count Basie Orchestra recorded a version of the song arranged by Quincy Jones in 1964. “Fly me to the moon / Let me play among the stars”: Those lyrics could as easily be about an investor frolicking in today’s stock market as a fellow smitten by love. Investors love the stock market these days! It has aroused their...

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Nothing To Fear But Nothing To Fear

Strategy I: Here Comes Another Earnings Season. First, the bad news: During the 1/9 week, industry analysts estimated that S&P 500 earnings per share fell 1.7% y/y in Q4-2019 (Fig. 1). They currently estimate that earnings rose just 1.1% last year (Fig. 2). That was mostly because the comparison with 2018 was tough, as earnings soared 23.8% that year thanks to Trump’s tax cut for corporations. In addition, S&P 500 revenues per share growth was remarkably strong during 2018, rising...

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How to Get YRI’s App

Our website functions as an app across all digital platforms. Just follow these steps to add the YRI button to your cell phone’s home screen: Apple devices: (1) Open Safari and navigate to yardeni.com (2) Click the share button on the toolbar (it looks like a box with an upward arrow coming out the top) (3) Select "Add to Home Screen" (4) Customize title if desired, then click “Add” Android devices: (1) Open Chrome and navigate to yardeni.com (2) Select “Add to Home screen”...

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Central Banks Likely to Keep Santa Claus Rally Going In 2020

Former Fed Chair Paul Volcker passed away on 12/8. He broke the back of inflation. Unfortunately, he had to cause a recession to do so, which broke the backs of lots of good hard-working people. He was widely viewed by them as the Grinch Who Stole Christmas. All of the Fed chairs who came after have preferred playing the role of Santa Claus, showering us all with lots of easy money. They were able to do so mostly because inflation has remained subdued ever since Volcker subdued it....

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Paul Volcker: The Great Disinflator

The following is an excerpt about Paul Volcker, who passed away on December 8, from my forthcoming book, Fed Watching for Fun and Profit. When Volcker took the helm of the Fed, the Great Inflation was well underway. During the summer of 1979, oil prices were soaring again because of the second oil crisis, which started at the beginning of the year when the Shah of Iran was overthrown. Seven months later, in March 1980, the CPI inflation rate peaked at its record high of 14.8%. When...

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Inflation Remains in a Coma in Major Economies, Frustrating Central Bankers

I’ve been a disinflationist since the early 1980s. I first used that word, which means falling inflation, in my June 1981 commentary, “Well on the Road to Disinflation.” The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate was 9.6% y/y that month (Fig. 1). I predicted that Fed Chair Paul Volcker would succeed in breaking the inflationary uptrend of the 1960s and 1970s when he adopted a monetarist approach during October 1979. I certainly wasn’t a monetarist, given my Keynesian training at Yale. I...

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