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The author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

Marc Chandler

The Jump in Rates Does Little for Sterling, the Canadian Dollar, and the New Zealand Dollar

Overview:  Weak growth impulses from China and a continued rise in energy prices greets the new week.  Equities are struggling.  Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan fell in Asia Pacific activity.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is about 0.5% lower near midday, while US futures indices are also nursing small losses.  Crude is trading at new highs that puts November WTI above $83 and Brent above $85 a barrel.  Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly 4-6 bp higher.  A larger than expected jump...

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Greenback’s Gains Pared Mostly, but Extended Against the Yen

The Antipodeans and the Scandis led last week's move against the dollar, registering more than 1% gains.  The yen was the weakest of the major currencies, falling almost 1.75%, its worst week since March 2020.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index initially declined to a new low for the year before recovering to snap a five-week slide and gain nearly 0.45%. Despite the six basis point gain ahead of the weekend, perhaps helped by a stronger-than-expected September retail sales report,...

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The Dramatic Rise in Energy Prices is Ultimately Deflationary

The Swiss had imposed negative rates on foreign currency deposits in the 1970s to counter the upward pressure on the franc, but Denmark became the first central bank to put its policy rate below zero in 2012.  There are now around $11.8 trillion of negative-yielding bonds, the least, incidentally, since mid-2020.  At the end of 2019, the value of bonds with a negative yield was slightly below $11.3 trillion. Nevertheless, the meaning and implications of negative-yielding interest rates...

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CAD Extends Gains, While Yen Slumps Further

Overview:  The S&P 500 and NASDAQ gapped higher yesterday and closed strong, helped by robust earnings reports.  This, coupled with TSCM earnings and Beijing easing mortgage lending, helped lift the MSCI Asia Pacific Index for the third consecutive session.  The returning Hong Kong market, Tokyo, and Taipei advanced more than 1% to lead the region.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 gapped higher for the second consecutive session, and if it can sustain its gains, it will be the best week in six...

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Marc Chandler’s views on a changing interest rate regime for FX

In today's live stream, Coach Dale Pinkert welcomes Marc Chandler who is a foreign exchange market analyst, writer, speaker, and professor. Marc Chandler has been covering the global capital markets for more than 30 years, including stints as the global head of currency strategy for both HSBC and Brown Brothers Harriman. Chandler recently joined Bannockburn Global Forex as a Managing Director and Chief Market Strategist in 2018. Marc is very constructive on The Canadian economy with the...

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A Short Note on the Pricing of the Fed Funds Futures: Aggressive

In assessing the trajectory of Fed policy the market is discounting, we prefer using the Fed funds futures contracts over the Eurodollar futures.  The Fed funds settle at the average effective rate, while the Eurodollar futures contracts are three-month deposit rates.  The Fed funds futures seem to be implying aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve, which as of less than a month ago, half of whom did not expect a rate hike would be appropriate next year.  The math of the Fed funds...

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Greenback’s Pullback is Extended, but Getting Stretched

Overview:  Investors seem undeterred by the firm oil and gas prices and have taken stocks and bonds higher today.  Stronger risk appetites are also evident in the foreign exchange market, where the dollar is weaker against most currencies. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is higher for a third day after falling for the previous six.  The strong recovery in US equities yesterday encouraged the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to extend its advance.  It has now risen in five of the past six...

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The Dollar Slips Ahead of CPI

Overview:  The US dollar is trading with a lower bias ahead of the September CPI report due early in the North American session.  Long-term yields softened yesterday and slipped further today, leaving the US 10-year yield near 1.56%.  European benchmark yields are 3-4 bp lower.  The shorter-end of the US coupon curve, the two-year yield is firmer. Equities are enjoying a slightly better tone, though Japan, Taiwan, and Australia's markets traded heavily in the Asia Pacific region. Hong Kong's...

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Dollar Yen, Interest Rates, and Much More! Marc Chandler Traders Summit Trading Interview

Marc Chandler from Bannockburn Global Forex discusses the breakout in the USDJPY and how the JPY could weaken further into a new “range” from the 110.00-115.00. For those traders looking for more, you may want to listen in. Also, could the “carry trade” be coming back? And he also talks about what rate expectations are saying about central banks globally, like the FOMC, BOE and BOC and does that fit what the central banks are really doing? Global Financial Markets...

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The Euro Remains Within Last Wednesday’s Range

Overview:  A weak close in US equity trading yesterday and the widening of China's "cultural revolution" for a two-month investigation of the financial sector stopped a three-day advance in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.  China, South Korea, and Taiwan saw more than a 1% decline in their major indices.  All the major indices weakened.  South Korea's Kospi fell to a new marginal low for the year and took the won with it.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe is off around 0.2%, and US indices have...

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