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The author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

Marc Chandler

Macro and Prices: Sentiment Swings Between Inflation and Recession

(On vacation for the rest of the month.  Going to Portugal.  Commentary will resume on June 1.   Good luck to us all.)The market is a fickle mistress. The major central banks were judged to be behind the inflation curve. Much teeth-gashing, finger-pointing. Federal Reserve Chair Powell was blamed for denying that a 75 bp hike was under consideration. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda was blamed for keeping the 0.25% cap on the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield. Even though European Central...

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Sentiment Remains Fragile, and the Euro and Sterling can barely Sustain even Modest Upticks

Overview:  Equities are recovering from dramatic losses.  Today, the Nikkei, Hang Seng, and Kospi surged by more than 2%.  The large markets in the region advanced except India.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is up about 1.2% near midday after falling 0.75% yesterday.  It is nearly flat on the week after falling for the past four weeks.  US futures are 1%+ higher.  Benchmark 10-year yields are firmer across the board.  The 10-year US Treasury yield is slightly below 2.90%, while European yields are 4-8...

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Dollar and Yen Surge

Overview: Global equities are bleeding lower. Several large markets in the Asia Pacific region, including Hong Kong, Taiwan, and India are off more than 2%. Japan and Australian bourses fell by more than 1.5%. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off more than 2% and giving back the gains recorded in the past two sessions plus some. US futures are extending yesterday's loses. The sharp sell-off of equities has given the sovereign bond market a strong bid. The 10-year US Treasury yield that had approached...

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Greenback Softens Ahead of CPI

Overview: It appears that investors have become more concerned about growth prospects and less about inflation in recent days. The US 10-year yield that had flirted with 3.20% at the start of the week is now around 2.93%. It is approaching the 20-day moving average (~2.90%), which it has not closed below in a little more than two months. European yields are sharply lower (~4-8 bp) with the core-periphery premium narrowing. Asia Pacific equities were mixed, but China, Hong Kong, and Australia...

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No Rest for the Weary

Overview: Risk appetites are improving on the margin. Asia Pacific stocks still fell after the sharp losses on Wall Street on Monday. Still, China, Taiwan and Indian equities traded higher. Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a four-day 6.5%+ slide and is up around 1.2% in late European morning turnover. US equity futures are up over 1%. The 10-year Treasury yield that pushed to 3.20% yesterday is a little above 3% now. European benchmark yields are 5-7 bp lower and the peripheral premium has...

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New Week Same Refrain: Stocks Down, Yields Up, Stronger Greenback

Overview: New week, same refrain.  Stocks down, yields up, and the dollar is broadly higher.  The Nikkei and Taiwan fell by more than 2% and South Korea and Australia were off more than 1%.  China's Shanghai and Shenzhen rose, but the CSI 300 fell again.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is off around 1.5% near midday in Europe.  US futures are 1.5%-2.0% lower.  The US 10-year yield is near 3.20%.  European bond yields are 3-8 bp higher.  The core-periphery spreads are widening, and Italy now offer around...

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Sterling,Tarred and Feathered, Bears Brunt of the Greenback’s Rally

The most important development last week was the swaps market lifting the terminal rate of the Fed funds rate toward 3.75% from around 3.25% at the end of April.  The knock-on effect sent the US 10-year yield above 3% and underpinned the greenback.  The Bank of England's 25 bp rate hike, and 1/3 of the MPC wanted a 50 bp hike despite economic forecasts a contraction in Q4 and next year as well.  The Volcker-moment sent sterling spiraling lower.  It is trading at levels not seen since July...

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The Week Ahead: US CPI and PPI Set to Soften

The Fed's 50 bp rate hike is behind us.  Another 50 bp hike is expected next month. The April employment report will do little to calm the anxiety about the "too tight" labor market.  The decline in the participation rate was disappointing and this coupled with decline in Q1 productivity raies questions about the economy's non-inflationary speed limit.    One of the fascinating things about the markets is that sometimes the cause take place after the effect.  This is an interesting way to...

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Markets Remain Unsettled Ahead of US (and Canada) Employment Reports

Overview: The sharp sell-off of US equities yesterday weighed on global equities today.  The Asia Pacific bourses were a sea of read with many of the large markets off 2%-3%.  Japan, which returned from a three-day holiday was the exception and it managed to eke out a small gain.  Europe's Stoxx 600 gapped lower after yesterday's outside down session and US futures are trading around 0.3%-0.5% lower.  Meanwhile, the US 10-year yield is ending further above the 3% threshold, while European...

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Fed Day

Overview: The markets are mostly treading water ahead of the FOMC decision later today. Tech stocks tumbled in Hong Kong and the Hang Seng fell a little more than 1%, while India was the worst performer in the region falling over 2% following an unexpected and inter-meeting hike by the Reserve Bank of India.  It raised the repo rate to 4.4% from 4.0%.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is a little lower and has been unable to close the gap from Monday created from the lower opening.  US futures are firm. ...

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