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The author Gregor Samsa
Gregor Samsa
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Global Macro Monitor

R.I.P. Carol K.

We are extremely sad to report our beloved Carol K. passed in her sleep at home early Friday morning. She had been home only ten days after 345 consecutive days in the hospital, recovering from a stem cell transplant, among other comorbidities and complications. Anyone who followed her Twitter account knows she was a wonderful person. She was always cheerful and uplifting, even while suffering in great pain. She would even Tweet out uplifting affirmations just minutes before major and...

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The New World Order And Global Capital Flows

#CKStrong GMM will be going dark for a few weeks. Watch This Space We are waiting anxiously for Monday’s U.S. Treasury release of the TIC data, particularly the major foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities. We are closely monitoring the foreign official flows into/out of the U.S. Treasury market.  March will be the first data point after Western nations sanctioned the Russian Central Bank at the end of February.  Foreign Central banks, which are not price or market-sensitive...

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Now For Some Good News

#CKStrong The U.S. budget deficit (12-month trailing) has fallen from almost 20 percent of GDP in Q1 2021 — most of which was indirectly financed by the Fed and an increase in Treasury bill issuance — to our estimate of 4.91 percent for April. That’s an incredible fiscal adjustment – albeit from an extraordinary level — and explains much of the growth slowdown.  During my emerging market days, the first impression of seeing such a massive budget adjustment was that a dramatic fall...

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Tech Revenues In Context

#CKStrong Apple’s air pod revenues alone generated $23.05 billion in revenue during their 2020 financial year – this is more revenue than Twitter, Spotify and Square combined. It gives Netflix’s entire business a run for its money as well – coming in less than 10% shy of their total revenue. According to the financial markets as of today, Netflix is worth somewhere in the region of $260 billion which would indicate that based on revenue alone, Apple’s AirPod business is worth...

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“It’s Demand-Driven Not Supply Chain Driven Inflation”

#CKStrong Those are the words of Matthew Shay, the CEO of the world’s largest retail trade association on CNBC today (1:07 minutes in).   Does that sound familiar, folks?  Mr. Shay notes the consumer remains strong despite the recent inflation spike.  He also added this zinger, making him sound like an analyst at GMM.  “The excess demand is driven by all the money that is out in the marketplace.”                                                                 [48 seconds in]...

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CPI Inflation’s Big Problem: Housing

#CKStrong But the Fed seems to be learning lessons from its 2021 experience. – NY Times The Fed is under a lot of heat for letting inflation get out of control, which is now generating super hawkishness even among the most gentle of monetary doves.  The scorching is illustrated in the above NY Times headline.   We are reposting our piece from last April 2021, Just In Case, You Think The Fed Has A Clue, in which we questioned the Fed’s economic sanity to keep buying mortgages...

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How You Know When The Fed Has Lost Control

#CkStrong When your fave local coffee house has eliminated the 15 percent gratuity option on Square. That is today relative to a fortnight ago, folks. Racking my brain to find the Gruatity supply chain disruption here. Anyone? Classic case of inflationary expectations becoming deeply imbedded in the economy or is it possibly a relative price shift as political power moves to favor labor vs. Das Kapital? We think a bit of both. Mr. Powell has a lot of wood to...

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CK Has Left The Building!

#CKStrong After 345 consecutive days in the hospital, we are happy (and giddy) to announce that our Carol K (CK) has finally been released from the hospital! We want to thank everyone, and we mean everyone, across the world for lifting her up during this difficult past year. I firmly believe she would not have made it without all your support and energy. We are all in this game of life together, folks, and it helps to know your fellow citizens of the world are pulling for...

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