Thursday , October 21 2021
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The author Gregor Samsa
Gregor Samsa
This site is designed as a “go to” source for traders, investors, policymakers and any interested in markets and the global economy. We provide informed opinion, timely market information, sources, and links.

Global Macro Monitor

What Are Bond Yields & Breakevens Telling Us?

#CKStrong    Carol K.’s ANC broke above 1200 today.  Absolute Neutrophil Count (ANC ) measures a type of white blood cell that kill and digest bacteria and fungi to help the body fight infections and heal wounds. At a time around Day 0 of her stem cell transplant, it was below 100, which is severe neutropenia and often fatal for cancer patients.   Her fight and grit coupled with the combination of the miracle of modern medicine, deep resources, and all of your support — prayers,...

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Black Monday, 1987: Inside The U.S. Treasury

#CKStrong Originally PostedOctober 19, 2020 By Liam McPherson The following exchange took place between President Reagan and reporters after the market close on Black Monday, October 19, 1987.  Leaving to visit the First Lady in the hospital, President Reagan spoke just after the market lost over 20 percent of its value on the day. Q: What about the market? Tomorrow will it go down again?President Reagan:  I don’t know. You tell me. Q: Is the market your fault?President Reagan: Is it...

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Hot Retail Sales Not Supply Chain Positive

#CKStrong The market view on Carol K. is starting to consolidate that she just may become is the GOAT of Comeback Kids. What a fighter!  Do you believe in miracles?  Go Neutrophils! Summary – The market narrative explaining the breakdown in the global supply chain is starting to come together– Some of the rock start pundits are now touting the supply chain is being swamped by too much demand, which has been our narrative since summer– The initial shock came with the 22 percent...

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Auto Chip Shortage Causing An INSANE Black-Market

#CKStrong Wow, it’s starting to feel like the old days of exchanging currency on the black market in the men’s bathroom at the Rio de Janeiro airport.  “The current black market price of a Bosch ESP chip (brake control system) is 4,000 yen, which $625, which is going to add an enormous price to a car and the only possible reason that you’ll be willing to pay this much for a $2 part because it’s the one thing you need to sell your car…this black market price is ludicrous it’s nearly...

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5G Marketing Outpaces Service Reality

#CKStrong The low 5G usage numbers in the one-minute video will surprise.  Has the market mispriced them, either over or under?  In telecommunications, 5G is the fifth-generation technology standard for broadband cellular networks, which cellular phone companies began deploying worldwide in 2019, and is the planned successor to the 4G networks which provide connectivity to most current cellphones. 5G networks are predicted to have more than 1.7 billion subscribers worldwide by 2025,...

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Are “Woke” Central Bankers Transitory?

#CKStrong   Bullish on CK,  ANC > 1100! Can anyone spot which Age was transitory? Woke Central Bankers  “We have a generation of central bankers who are defining themselves by their wokeness,” Summers, who is now a professor at Harvard University, said on Wednesday. “They’re defining themselves by how socially concerned they are.” “We’re in more danger than we’ve been during my career of losing control of inflation in the U.S.,” the 66-year-old Summers, a paid...

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Can You Tell The Difference Between AI And A Human?

#CKStrong How do you know if Carol K. or myself are not ChatBots? The [pandemic] crisis accelerated the adoption of analytics and AI, and this momentum will continue into the 2020s, surveys show. Fifty-two percent of companies accelerated their AI adoption plans because of the Covid crisis, a study by PwC finds. Just about all, 86%, say that AI is becoming a “mainstream technology” at their company in 2021. Harris Poll, working with Appen, found that 55% of companies reported...

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Demand Surge Gumming Up Global Ports

#CKStrong The “surge in demand” is congesting the global container ports. That is, it’s a primarily (though not all, and getting less so by the day, at the micro level) an excess demand issue creating the shortage economy. Some $10.4trn of global stimulus has unleashed a furious but lopsided rebound in which consumers are spending more on goods than normal, stretching global supply chains that have been starved of investment. Demand for electronic goods has boomed...

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The Taiwan Strait Getting Hot, Hot, Hot, Hotter…3.0

#CKStrong We are reposting a repost of a piece we did last September.  Our sense is Mr. Xi is testing and doing the calculus if the U.S.is willing to fight WWIII over Taiwan.  Taiwan and U.S. officials have expressed alarm over nearly 150 flights near Taiwan in the past week by Chinese military aircraft. The Chinese aircraft have included J-16 jet fighters, H-6 strategic bombers and Y-8 submarine-spotting aircraft and have set a record for such sorties, according to the Taiwan...

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