Saturday , December 7 2019
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The author Gregor Samsa
Gregor Samsa
This site is designed as a “go to” source for traders, investors, policymakers and any interested in markets and the global economy. We provide informed opinion, timely market information, sources, and links.

Global Macro Monitor

COTD: Apple’s Global Supply Chain

COTD:  Chart of the Day Maybe a bit dated but you get the picture, no surprise, China dominates the supply chain, which also includes fabs.  Apple is very exposed to a protracted or forever trade war and deterioration of the global trading system, which of course makes the stock market much more vulnerable to the spectre of anti-globalization haunting the world. Share this:Like this:Like Loading...

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Getting Narrow Up Here

$AAPL and $MSFT have together attributed 35% of the total gain in the $NDX this year. 2/106 stocks over 1/3 the gain. A lot will weigh on them for indexers in 2020 — Thomas Thornton (@TommyThornton) December 3, 2019 We are not big fans of high and narrow. Share this:Like this:Like Loading...

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If Facts Mattered…….

The just-released phone logs in the House Intel report would be a nuclear bombshell and could potentially take down a government.   Unless, of course, Rudy, is working on a balanced budget amendment with the OMB. Democracy cannot survive if facts don’t matter.  The pols may start repeating propaganda and conspiracies propagated by America’s foreign adversaries.  Wait…. Share this:Like this:Like Loading...

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American Democracy In A Bear Market

…As partisans have drifted apart geographically and ideologically, they’ve become more hostile toward each other. In 1960, less than 5 percent of Democrats and Republicans said they’d be unhappy if their children married someone from the other party; today, 35 percent of Republicans and 45 percent of Democrats would be, according to a recent Public Religion Research Institute/Atlantic poll—far higher than the percentages that object to marriages crossing the boundaries of race and...

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Manufacturing Sector Contraction Continues, Led By New Orders – ISM

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, five reported growth in November: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products. (Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November, and the overall economy grew for the 127th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was...

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S&P’s Great Run…What Next?

The S&P500 price index is up 25.30 percent going into December, the 9th best performance for index from January to November since 1950.   What makes this year’s rally unique to the prior big years is that it launched from the nastiest Q4 and December, in particular,  in the preceding year.   So in some sense, much of the rally has been a reflexive rally from the crash in Q4 2018 and goosed by the Fed. What to expect in December and next year after such a great run? We don’t know...

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Ten Facts About Inequality In Advanced Economies (AE) — PIIE

Very good discussion on the inequality landscape in the AEs.  We know it ain’t no Tik-Tok video but it’s a good investment of your time to learn something more about what is important and going to drive the political economy in the next several years. (Full session) Lucas Chancel, codirector of the World Inequality Lab and of the World Inequality Database (WID) at the Paris School of Economics, explains that economic inequality is on the rise after a historic decline. Inequality, he...

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The Parable Of The Good Salvadoran

It was just past midnight on a Saturday night when the pastor of a popular urban city megachurch, Reverend Jerry Graham Jr. had just finished the bulletin on the billboard sign located on the lawn outside the large modern church structure.  He was in a bit of a hurry to get home and grab some sleep before his first sermon, which was to be delivered at the 8:00 am service the next morning. He took a last look at the sign before leaving for the two-block walk to the church parking...

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Discipline Trumps Conviction

Today’s close above 3125 takes us out of our short position, which we started scaling into at 3025.  We are still fairly confident that this market can be bought at much lower prices at some point in the next 18 months.   We hate getting squeezed out up here, which is probably a sign of the top and it won’t be the first time. We’re going to the beach and patiently waiting with our long-term money and we will be on alert to the downside when the fever and market breaks.   Maybe the MoMo...

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