Thursday , January 23 2020
Home / Global Macro Monitor
The author Gregor Samsa
Gregor Samsa
This site is designed as a “go to” source for traders, investors, policymakers and any interested in markets and the global economy. We provide informed opinion, timely market information, sources, and links.

Global Macro Monitor

QOTD: Did Boomers Burn Down The House?

QOTD = Quote of the Day It’s kind of stunning how Time Magazine’s Person of the Year, a “very angry” 17-year old Swedish teenage girl diagnosed with Asperger syndrome, obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), and selective mutism, can trigger the President of the United States,  many of my old white male friends,  and much of the Twitterati.   How low must we go? She embodies the growing anger of the younger generation, which could culminate in a huge 2020 surprise,  toward baby boomers...

Read More »

The Happiest Places On Earth

Happiest countries in the world: 1. Finland 🇫🇮2. Denmark 🇩🇰3. Norway 🇳🇴4. Iceland 🇮🇸5. Netherlands 🇳🇱6. Switzerland 🇨🇭7. Sweden🇸🇪8. New Zealand🇳🇿9. Canada🇨🇦10. Austria🇦🇹11. Australia🇦🇺12. Costa Rica🇨🇷13. Israel🇮🇱 #WEF20 https://t.co/bxuiBzixXo pic.twitter.com/JTCAK69tRM — Vala Afshar (@ValaAfshar) January 21, 2020 Share this:Like this:Like Loading...

Read More »

The Black Swan Chart Of 2020

The surprising outcome of the 2020 presidential election may be, OK, Boomer.  It’s time to pass the torch of leadership to a new generation.    The younger generations dwarf the boomers in terms of sheer numbers but they have a habit of not voting.   They may be changing, however, as it did in the 2018 midterm. If the CNN chart holds and plays out, the 2020 presidential election is going to be nothing less than stunning.    The pollsters are going to be way off the mark once again....

Read More »

The Best MLK Weekend Of All-Time

We are reposting this in honor of Dr. King, a truly great American. Originally Posted on January 21, 2019 During my Lehman days as a bond strategist, the firm’s research group would do a January roadshow in many of America’s major cities to present our ideas to institutional investors.   One particular year, we were in Atlanta at the end of the week and scheduled for another “greatest show on earth” in Chicago the next Tuesday. A Weekend In The Peachtree Hyatt Rather than flying home...

Read More »

The Secular Decline in U.S. Manufacturing Employment

The title of the post is a bit of a misnomer. Though the number of manufacturing jobs in the United States is 40 plus percent higher than in 1939, their proportion of total private payrolls hit its lowest level in December at 9.91 percent. That is there are almost 4m more manufacturing payroll jobs in December 2019 than in January 1939, which at the time — just four months before Germany invaded Poland to start WWII, BTW — made up 35 percent of American nonfarm payroll jobs.  It’s...

Read More »

How Is That Austrian Century Bond Doing?

I guess it depends on your entry price.   The Austrian 2117 bond chart now looks like a broken stock. We did notice during summer feeding frenzy and August highs, our bond trading buddies in Europe were pounding the table the loudest that every bond yield in the world was going to zero and beyond.   It’s always loudest at tops. The whole negative-yielding debt fiasco was generated by a ginormous momentum trade or a greater fool theory, coupled with momentum-driven algos with no...

Read More »

Stocks Get Vertical & Vertigo

This is some chart.  Even if you assume a structural shift in valuations began when the Fed started backstopping markets after the 1987 crash, that puts the average valuation of the Wilshire Market Cap to GDP at 92.58 percent.   That’s an extremely mean regression to the mean from current levels. Upshot?  We are all momentum algo traders now.   When it stops, nobody knows. Patience, grasshopper.   We wait patiently on the beach for the fever to break. Stock prices are likely to be...

Read More »