Tuesday , April 20 2021
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The author Gregor Samsa
Gregor Samsa
This site is designed as a “go to” source for traders, investors, policymakers and any interested in markets and the global economy. We provide informed opinion, timely market information, sources, and links.

Global Macro Monitor

Masters Week: Jack and German POWs (BFTP)

BFTP: Blast From The Past Post Who would of thunk “Infrastructure Week” at Augusta meant hiring German WWII POWs to build bridges at Golf’s Mecca. My top three picks this week for total money won:  Jon Rahm, Jordan Speith, and Phil, with the Spaniard (Rahm) taking home the Green Jacket. Golf’s Ultimate Shame Awesome to see Lee Elder hit the ceremonial first tee shot.   Lee Elder was the first Black man to play in the Masters back in 1975.    Shame on Augusta National for not allowing a...

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Fed Heads Talking 4 Percent Inflation

Fed's Kashkari says he would not panic if he saw a 4% inflation rate-BBG — LongConvexity (@LONGCONVEXITY) April 8, 2021 The bond market might, however, assuming Kashkari’s  quote is true. We are reposting a piece, which we recieved tremendous pushback when it was posted.   Now the Fed Heads are climbing aboard.  NK is one of the smartest but a bit of an opportunist, in our opinion. Wall Street’s “everything is bullish” mantra is why the U.S. stock market cap to GDP is now close 200...

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Getting Back Pre-COVID GDP Levels

Nice chart from Bloomberg. Chile’s almost there, baby! h/t CK The U.S. may be. If Q1 GDP grew at an annualized compounded rate of 10.2 percent (2.45 percent q/q), the U.S. economy will back to its pre-COVID end of quarter high of $19.254 tillion set in Q4 2019. GDP in the U.S. probally peaked in mid-February. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast has Q1 GDP growing at 6.0 percent. Stay tuned. Share this:Like this:Like Loading...

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You Sure, Georgia?

“Poor Mexico [Georgia Republicans.]  So far from God and so close to the United States [MAGA.]”  ― Porfirio Diaz (paraphrased) The Georgia law will make it a misdemeanor crime to give food or drinks to voters waiting in long lines. – Reuters Gonna get hot, hot, hot for y’all.    “Then he will say to those on his left, ‘Depart from me, you who are cursed, into the eternal fire prepared for the devil and his angels.  For I was hungry and you gave me nothing to eat, I was...

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What’s The Probability Of This Event?

Incredible video. The big unit snares a pidgeon 20 years ago today. Take a guess on the empirical probabliity? Let’s do a calcuation based on these assumptions: Very few other occurances of a picther nailing a bird. Let’s assume three in post-War era;Average pitches per game equal 200 per team;158 games per year for each team. MLB season expanded to 162 games from 154 games in 1962;Average number of teams equal 25. Major league baseball currently has 30 teams, compared...

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Happy St. Patrick’s (Maweyn Succat) Day!

Blast From The Past (BFTP). Originally Posted On March 17, 2012 Happy St. Patrick’s (Maweyn Succat) Day! St. Patrick, Ireland, St. Patrick’s Day. Simple, right? The man wasn’t even Irish! He was actually born in Britain around the turn of the 4th century. At 16 years old, Irish raiders captured him in the midst of an attack on his family’s estate. The raiders then took him to Ireland and held him captive for six years. After escaping, he went back to England for religious training and...

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The Macro Factors Driving The Covid Economy In Two Charts

Here’s a couple of interesting and surprising charts, which explain what has been driving the COVID economy and why the U.S. economy is set up for monster growth over the next few quarters. When the economy fully reopens, we suspect a consumer feeding frenzy in many of the services that have been closed or operating at a limited capacity.   We also expect these firms and businesses that have survived will have mucho pricing power given the massive stimulus that has been put into the...

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