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The author Lance Roberts
Lance Roberts
Lance Roberts has sharpened that lens with 30 years in the investing world from private banking and investment management to private and venture capital. Lance Roberts’ perspective and common sense analysis is sought after by media outlets such as Fox 26 News in Houston, CNBC, CNN and Fox Business News along with numerous publications including the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Reuters and the Washington Post. Roberts is the Editor of the X-Factor report and publishes the blog Daily X-change.

Lance Roberts Real Investment Advice

Has The Narrative Been All Priced In? 09-13-19

The Bullish Narrative Is It All Priced In? Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha The Bullish Narrative This past week was built for the “bulls” as just about every item on their “wish list.” was fulfilled. From a “trade deal” to more “QE,” what more could you want? Trade Deal Near? Concerning the ongoing “trade war,” our prediction that Trump would begin to back peddle on negotiations to get a “deal done”...

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#WhatYouMissed On RIA: Week Of 09-09-19

We know you get busy and don’t check on our website as often as you might like. Plus, with so much content being pushed out every week from the RIA Team, we thought we would send you a weekly synopsis of everything that you might have missed. The Week In Blogs The Best Of “The Lance Roberts Show” Video Of The Week Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz Discuss QE & The Impacts To Growth Our Best Tweets Of The Week China's...

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War Gaming The Trade War

People respond to incentives. So do national governments. This is foundational to both economics and geopolitics. Carefully examining each side’s incentives can illuminate how a conflict will end. No one has infinite choices. They choose from limited options. That applies to the US-China trade war, which is right now one of our top economic issues. So let’s think through what the players really want, and what each can actually do. Outrageous or Flexible? To begin, let’s note that the US and...

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The Lunacy Of The Dow

I’ve been on Twitter (TWTR) quite a few times railing against the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its price-weighted calculation. And, of course, I am not alone. This index presents a distorted view of any given day’s events although most of the time its foibles are hidden in the performance of the rest of the market. Let’s look at today, September 11, 2019. I am writing at about 2:30 in the afternoon and the Dow itself is up roughly 137 points on the day. All of that gain, and I mean all of...

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The August Jobs Report Confirms The Economy Is Slowing

After the monthly jobs report was released last week, I saw numerous people jumping on the unemployment rate as a measure of success, and in this particular case, Trump’s success as President. Unemployment November 2016: 4.7% Unemployment August 2019: 3.7% Argument solved. President Trump has been “Yuugely” successful at putting people to work as represented by a 1% decline in the unemployment rate since his election. But what about President Obama? Unemployment November 2008: 12.6%...

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Black Monday – Can It Happen Again?

The 1987 stock market crash, better known as Black Monday, was a statistical anomaly, often referred to as a Black Swan event. Unlike other market declines, investors seem to be under the false premise that the stock market in 1987 provided no warning of the impending crash. The unique characteristics of Black Monday, the magnitude and instantaneous nature of the drop, has relegated the event to the “could never happen again” compartment of investors’ memories. On Black Monday, October...

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2020 Will Be The Most Volatile Year In History

The last few weeks marked a turning point in the global economy. It’s more than the trade war. A sense of vulnerability is replacing the previous confidence—and with good reason. We are vulnerable, and we’ll be lucky to get through the 2020s without major damage. Let’s talk about the risks facing us in the next year or so and the economic environment in which we will face those risks. Supply Shocks Ahead In a recent Project Syndicate piece, NYU professor and economist Nouriel Roubini outlined...

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An Investor’s Desktop Guide To Trading – Part II

Read Part-1 Here Currently, it seems that nothing can derail the bull market. Trade wars, weakening economic growth, deteriorating earnings, and inverted yield curves have all been dismissed on “hopes” that a “trade deal” will come, and the Federal Reserve will cut rates. While the last two items may indeed extend the current cycle by a few months, they won’t change the dynamics of the former. Eventually, this cycle ends. Of that, there is little argument. It is the “when,” that is tirelessly...

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The Costs & Consequences Of $15/Hour – The Update

In 2016, I first touched on the impacts of hiking the minimum wage. “What’s the big ‘hub-bub’ over raising the minimum wage to $15/hr? After all, the last time the minimum wage was raised was in 2009. According to the April 2015, BLS report the numbers were quite underwhelming: ‘In 2014, 77.2 million workers age 16 and older in the United States were paid at hourly rates, representing 58.7 percent of all wage and salary workers. Among those paid by the hour, 1.3 million earned exactly the...

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Bulls Regain The Narrative As They Want To Believe 09-06-19

Market Review & Update The Last Hoorah? They Want To Believe Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Market Review & Update Last week, we laid out 6-points about the market as the risk to the downside outweighed the potential reward.  Historically, September is one of the weakest months of the year, particularly when it follows a weak August. The market remains range bound and failed at both the 50-dma...

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