Saturday , October 31 2020
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The author James Picerno
James Picerno
James Picerno is a financial journalist who has been writing about finance and investment theory for more than twenty years. He writes for trade magazines read by financial professionals and financial advisers. Over the years, he’s written for the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Bloomberg Markets, Mutual Funds, Modern Maturity, Investment Advisor, Reuters, and his popular finance blog, The CapitalSpectator.

The Capital Spectator

Has The Decades-Long Slide In Treasury Yields Run Out Of Road?

Predicting the end of the secular decline in interest rates has been a hardy perennial — and perennially wrong. Given this history, any observer of bond yields must be wary of declaring that a 40-year trend has reached its end. Nothing lasts forever, of course, and so it’s conceivable that at some point the decline and fall of interest rates will reach a finale. But speculating on whether that day is next week, next year or 20 years hence is one of the great challenges of...

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Macro Briefing: 30 Oct 2020

US economy posts dramatic rebound in Q3–GDP rose at record rate: CNBCAnalysts worry that US economic rebound is fading: BBCEarly US voting rises to a record 80 million: ReutersUS coronavirus cases rise above 89,000 a new record: BBGEurope’s rising coronavirus infections and death are a warning for the US: WSJJobless US workers face potentially massive defaults: PoliticoAmazon expects $4 billion in Covid-19-related expenses: CNBCUS pending home sales fell in Sep after four straight...

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The S&P 500’s Latest Slide Vs. Rolling 1-Year Returns

Whenever breathless headlines shout danger and destruction for the stock market, my first reaction is to fire up R to update the perspective on the performance trend. After yesterday’s sharp correction in the S&P 500, which extends the recent downturn and leaves the index at a one-month low, it’s time again for a reality check if only to keep behavioral risk from running amuck. There are many ways to focus on signal and minimize noise when assessing market activity, but I like...

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Macro Briefing: 29 Oct 2020

Supreme Court OKs ballot extensions In Pennsylvania and North Carolina: NPRThree dead in terrorism attack in France: CNBCEurope issues warnings for health care system as coronavirus surges: APBig-Tech CEOs debate with Senators in hearing over free-speech issues: WSJUS states face biggest cash crunch since Great Depression: WSJRecord gain expected in today’s US GDP report for Q3: ReutersThe ‘nightmare scenario’–a long, contested US election outcome–is a risk: PSUS trade gap in goods...

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Africa, China Stocks Lead Global Equity Markets Bounce

Since global markets plunged during the coronavirus crash in March, all the world’s major equity regions have posted sharp rebounds. Leading the way: shares in Africa, followed by China and US stocks, based on a set of publicly traded funds through Oct. 27. Using the US market’s trough as a baseline (Mar. 23, 2020), VanEck Vectors Africa Index ETF (AFK) is enjoying a first-place increase with a 55.5% surge. Stocks in Africa may be overlooked by most investors, but the oversight...

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Macro Briefing: 28 Oct 2020

US coronavirus hospitalizations surge: ReutersCovid-19 cases spike in swing states that will likely decide election: CNBCUnrest in Philadelphia continues after police fatally shot a black man: BBCPre-election voting at 50%-plus of ballots cast in 2016 election: CNNGermany considers shutting bars and restaurants for one month: BBGIs the struggling rental market creating the next housing crisis? WSJConsumer Confidence Index for US ticks down in October: MWUS consumer confidence falls...

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Strong Rebound Expected For This Week’s US Q3 GDP Report

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis is on track to report that the economy posted a strong rebound in the third quarter in Thursday’s initial GDP estimate (Oct. 29). Most economists and nowcasting models are estimating a dramatic, perhaps record-setting increase in gross domestic product (GDP). There’s still uncertainty about Q4’s outlook, but confidence is high that this week’s GDP data will confirm that the economy mounted a dramatic rebound after Q2’s record loss. Output for...

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Macro Briefing: 27 Oct 2020

Senate confirms Amy Coney Barrett to Supreme Court: CNBCSupreme Court: Wisconsin mail-in ballots valid only if received by Nov 3: CNNRussian air strikes in Syria kill 50-plus Turkish-backed fighters: BBCChina’s Ant Group expected to raise $34 billion in record IPO: WSJPandemic moves Eurozone banks to tighten access to credit: ReutersUS new home sales slipped in Sep but remain strong: MWDallas Fed Mfg Index: Manufacturing Expands for fifth month in Oct: DFChicago Fed Nat’l Activity...

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