The Capital Spectator

The long-running bull market in bonds continues to defy bearish forecasts, as shown by a set of exchange-traded funds. Positive year-to-date performance in all the major corners of fixed income continues to offer a stark counterpoint to analysts who expect trouble. Long-term corporate bonds continue to lead the field by a wide margin for 2019 results. Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond (VCLT) is up 20.9% for the year through yesterday’s close (Oct. 15). The gain far outpaces...

Warren is focus of attacks at Democratic debate: CNBCVP Pence, Sec. of State Pompeo in Turkey today to push for Syrian ceasefire: FoxUS indicts Turkey’s 2nd-largest bank on evading Iran sanctions: NY TimesChina criticizes House bill that focuses on Hong Kong: ReutersDoubt hangs over China’s promise to buy more US farm products: WSJBrexit talks stall over familiar stumbling blocks: CNBCUpbeat corporate earnings help raise US stock market to 3-week high: MWIMF forecasts global growth...

Every recession is different and the next one, whenever it strikes, will likely continue the tradition. As a Bloomberg column reminded last week, the risk factors that may be aligning to deliver the next contraction are an unusual mix. “This won’t be your father’s recession — if indeed the U.S. ends up tumbling into one,” Bloomberg’s Rich Miller writes. Traditionally, US downturns are home-grown and household-led, triggered by spikes in interest rates and fueled by the...

Trump announces sanctions on Turkey, demands Syria ceasefire: ReutersVP Pence headed to Turkey for negotiations: MWDoubts follow Trump’s trade deal with China: The HillEU’s chief negotiator: Brexit deal ‘still possible’: BBCTurkish lira rises despite Trump’s new economic sanctions on Turkey: CNBCChina’s factory deflation ticked deeper into the red in September: BloombergGerman investor sentiment remains weak in October via ZEW survey: BloombergNY Fed Mfg Index edges up in Oct,...

Commodities prices rebounded last week after a run of declines, posting the strongest weekly performance for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded funds. Foreign stocks were in close pursuit for the performance leadership during the trading week ended Oct. 11. A key driver in last week’s revival in commodities prices: news of progress in US-China trade talks, which was a factor in boosting crude oil prices – the main component for iShares S&P GSCI...

Trump expected to impose new sanctions on Turkey for Syria invasion: ReutersChina requests more talks before signing latest trade deal with US: BBGWill the latest US-China trade truce boost global growth? Maybe not: WSJChina will be a factor in Q3 earnings that are starting to roll in: MWHouse intel chairman: whistleblower testimony may not be needed: The HillEurozone industrial output rebounded in August: ReutersBrexit deal remains long shot as Oct 31 deadline nears: CNBCChina’s...

● After the Crash: Financial Crises and Regulatory Responses Edited by Sharyn O’Halloran and Thomas GrollSummary via publisher (Columbia U. Press) The 2008 crash was the worst financial crisis and the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression. It triggered a complete overhaul of the global regulatory environment, ushering in a stream of new rules and laws to combat the perceived weakness of the financial system. While the global economy came back from the brink, the...

The US stock market has climbed a wall of worry this year, led by technology and real estate shares. The two sectors have been red hot for most of 2019 and that’s still true by wide margins, based on a set of exchange traded funds. Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK), the strongest year-to-date performer, is currently posting a sizzling 31.1% total return through yesterday’s close (Oct. 10). Although the fund has been treading water for the last two months, it continues to...

Turkey pounds Syrian Kurds in third day of military offensive: ReutersIranian tanker struck by missiles off coast of Saudi Arabia: CNBCUS-China trade talks set to continue on Friday after encouraging start: WSJBrussels meeting hints at possible UK-EU deal on Brexit: BBCJobless claims fell last week, pointing to ongoing US labor mkt growth: Reuters10yr-3mo Treasury yield curve briefly turned positive on Thursday: MWLow headline consumer inflation in Sep suggests another Fed rate cut:...

Ahead of today’s September report on US consumer inflation, the Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast via 5-year maturities quietly ticked down to 1.24% in Wednesday’s trading (based on daily data via Treasury.gov). The crowd’s estimate of future pricing pressure for 5-year Notes marks the lowest level since February 2016. Although market-based estimates of future inflation should be viewed cautiously, the latest dip is a reminder that a downside bias continues to prevail in...