Friday , October 22 2021
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The author James Picerno
James Picerno
James Picerno is a financial journalist who has been writing about finance and investment theory for more than twenty years. He writes for trade magazines read by financial professionals and financial advisers. Over the years, he’s written for the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Bloomberg Markets, Mutual Funds, Modern Maturity, Investment Advisor, Reuters, and his popular finance blog, The CapitalSpectator.

The Capital Spectator

Will Slowing Economic Growth Delay Fed’s Tapering?

Federal Reserve officials have recently been talking up the case for starting the process of tapering the central bank’s asset purchases. This baby step towards a more hawkish policy stance could begin as early as next month. “While there is still room to improve on the employment leg of our mandate, I believe we have made enough progress such that tapering of our asset purchases should commence following our next FOMC meeting [Nov. 2-3],” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said...

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Macro Briefing: 21 October 2021

* Senate Democrats consider abandoning planned tax-rate hikes* European Union set to rebuke Poland for challenging primacy of EU laws* UK’s energy crisis could force 20 power suppliers into bankruptcy* China Evergrande’s shares plunge after asset-purchase deal falls apart* Fed’s Beige Book: slower growth amid higher inflation in early autumn* Bitcoin futures ETF reaches $1 billion in assets after record-breaking debut* Inflation worries are driving investment flows into bitcoin, says...

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US Q3 Growth Nowcast Falls Ahead Of Next Week’s GDP Report

The recent slowdown in the outlook for third-quarter growth deepened recently, based on a set of nowcasts. The Oct. 28 release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis is still on track to post a moderate gain, but today’s update for the nowcast reflects a steep downgrade from the previous estimate. The current estimate indicates growth at 3.0% for the July-through-September quarter, based on the median of several numbers compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. That’s a solid increase in...

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Macro Briefing: 20 October 2021

* Fed Chair Powell’s inflation metrics raise doubts about transitory forecast* US 10-year Treasury yield rises to 1.67% on Tuesday — highest since May* Has China become uninvestable? Milken conference guests debate the question* UN report expected to forecast that fossil fuel producers set to ramp up output* Can carbon-sucking fans help the world reach net-zero emissions?* Multiple factors driving labor shortage that’s slowing US recovery* German producer prices increase at fastest...

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Is Weak US Industrial Output Flashing A Warning Sign?

Industrial production in US was surprisingly weak in September, falling a hefty 1.3% vs. the previous month – far below Econoday.com’s consensus point forecast for a moderate 0.2% rise. That’s worrisome, but monthly data is noisy and so it’s premature to read too much into one monthly update. A better way to contextualize post-recession economic trends is reviewing the results in relative terms vs. previous expansions. Let’s begin by comparing the industrial production index...

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Macro Briefing: 19 October 2021

* US Lawmakers focus on tougher regs to curb Big Tech’s influence* China and Russia naval vessels sail through Japan strait* North Korea fires ballistic missile on Tuesday* Energy crunch threatens global recovery as winter approaches* Is supply-crunch inflation beyond the powers of containing via monetary policy?* Fed Chair Powell sold more than $1 million of stock as market was tanking* North America’s largest port remains gridlocked off coast of LA* China’s property and...

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Property, Commodities Led Rebound In Global Markets Last Week

Nearly every slice of the major asset classes bounced last week, led by strong gains in real estate shares and commodities, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Oct. 15). The only decline was in foreign high-yield bonds. Vanguard US Real Estate (VNQ) surged 3.5%, posting its best weekly advance since mid-September. The rally left the fund to just below its highest close since Sep. 17. It’s unclear if the latest bounce is a temporary pause in what appears to be modest...

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Macro Briefing: 18 October 2021

* Dems will focus on finalizing Biden’s massive social spending bill this week* Inflation poses rising political risk for Biden and Democrats* World still reliant on fossil fuels amid surge in energy prices* China’s GDP increased 4.9% year over year in Q3, less than expected* Energy, real estate shocks are slowing China’s economy, with global implications* Fallout in China’s property sector looks set to continue* Investors expect central banks will keep rates too low for too long,...

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Book Bits: 16 October 2021

● Trillions: How a Band of Wall Street Renegades Invented the Index Fund and Changed Finance ForeverRobin WigglesworthInterview with author and excerpt via Marketplace.orgThe finance industry has historically been adept at inventing new products that line its own pockets more than those of Main Street. The index fund is a rare exception to the rule. At a time when the gap between the haves and have-nots is widening everywhere, the positive impact that an initially much-maligned...

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