Wednesday , September 22 2021
Home / Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog (page 5)

Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog

The Bonddad Blog is authored by Hale Stewart, a financial advisor. His blog publishes an invaluable weekly economic review on the Bond Market, International Economics, and Equity and Economics. These links along with his highly detailed review of economic trends makes this one of the top economics blogs

Initial jobless claims continue in range, while continuing claims sharply decline

 - by New Deal democratInitial jobless claims declined another 14,000 this week to 385,000, still 17,000 above their best pandemic levels of 368,000 set on June 26 and July 10. The 4 week average of claims declined by 250 to 394,000, also 9,500 above its pandemic low set on July 11:Significant progress in the decline of initial claims remains stalled, as it has for the last 2 months.The story is quite different for continuing claims, which declined 366,000 to a new pandemic low of...

Read More »

Coronavirus dashboard for August 4: in which I see reason for optimism

 - by New Deal democratIt seems pretty clear that Delta burns through the dry tinder very fast - on the order of 9 to 12 weeks from onset to peak, based on the experience of the UK and India, respectively. The US is 7 weeks past its trough in cases, so it is a fair hypothesis that the Delta wave will reach its peak at some point in the next 2 to 5 weeks - roughly at some point in the second half of August or early September. But what does that mean for the number of cases and deaths? And...

Read More »

Manufacturing sector continues to be on fire; but real construction spending plunges

 - by New Deal democratAugust data started out mixed. The ISM manufacturing index continued to show strong expansion. Both the overall and new orders components declined slightly m/m, but at 59.5 and 64.9 remained far about the breakeven point between expansion and contractions of 50.0:The simplest way to read this is that the manufacturing sector remains on fire.The story is different with this morning’s release of June construction spending. Total nominal spending increased 0.1%, and...

Read More »

Weekly Indicators for July 26 – 30 at Seeking Alpha

 - by New Deal democratMy Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.Ironically, as the bond market smells weakness ahead, driving long term rates down, it also sets up a rebound from that weakness further out. In the meantime, Q2 corporate profits are through the roof.As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you up to the virtual moment, and bring me some change for a libation or two.

Read More »

Coronavirus dashboard for July 28: you’re reading the right blog, ghoulish edition

 - by New Deal democratIn writing about the economy, I make use of long and short leading indicators to forecast coincident indicators. In writing about COVID, the template isn’t much different: cases lead hospitalizations by about 2 weeks, which in turn lead deaths by about 2 weeks. Put another way, cases lead deaths by about 4 weeks.Four weeks ago I wrote:“we have to start worrying about COVID again, because the delta variant has now taken hold in up to 8 States with rising new cases. All...

Read More »

June personal income and spending show pandemic cushion approaching depletion

  - by New Deal democratHow well personal income and spending held up throughout the pandemic is one of the best things about the government response.For June, nominal personal income increased 0.1%. After inflation, however, it decreased -0.4%. Nominal personal spending increased 1.0%. After inflation, it still increased 0.5%. Here are the real figures for both personal spending and disposable income:Expenditures are up 2.7% since right before the pandemic, while income is up 3.3%.Here is...

Read More »

Q2 2021 GDP: goodbye recession, hasta la vista recovery, hello expansion

 - by New Deal democratNominal GDP before inflation increased 3.1%, while real GDP for the 2nd Quarter increased 1.6%. The real annual rate of growth was thus 6.5%. Real GDP is now 0.8% higher than its last quarter before the onset of the pandemic:The recession is over, as was declared by the NBER last week. In fact, so is the recovery, if one measures by GDP, since once all of the decline during the recession is made up, that qualifies for calling it an expansion.Real income and spending...

Read More »

Initial claims continue two-month stall

 - by New Deal democratInitial jobless claims declined 24,000 this week, but at 400,000 this was the 2nd week in a row starting with a “4” handle. The 4 week average of claims also increased by 8,000 to 394,500:Significant progress in the decline of initial claims has stopped for the last 2 months.Continuing claims rose 7,000 to 3,269,000:This is the third week within 10,000 for continued claims. This level was last seen at the end of 2012 during the last expansion.Whether claims will...

Read More »

Housing sales decline, while price surges continue

 - by New Deal democratSo I take a little one day road trip on my vacation, and come back to find much weeping and gnashing of teeth and generalized whining about a big decline in new home sales. Well, what exactly were they expecting?The new home sales data is particularly volatile and heavily revised. So, in June, it was volatile, and May was revised substantially downward (blue in the graph below). Prices also declined, although they remain within the range of monthly noise (red):When we...

Read More »

Weekly Indicators for July 19 – 23 at Seeking Alpha

 - by New Deal democratMy Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.No visible impact on the economy yet due to the Delta wave. In March 2020, the first indicator to tip over was restaurant reservations. I would expect that to be the first item to suffer now as well.As usual, clicking over and reading will not only bring you up to the virtual moment, but bring me a penny or two for my efforts.

Read More »