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Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog

The Bonddad Blog is authored by Hale Stewart, a financial advisor. His blog publishes an invaluable weekly economic review on the Bond Market, International Economics, and Equity and Economics. These links along with his highly detailed review of economic trends makes this one of the top economics blogs

Coronavirus dashboard for May 31: comparing US States and regions with European countries

 - by New Deal democratAmong all countries in the world, Sweden has the worst death rate from coronavirus: 5.9 per million per day over the past week. But, even with massive declines from their peaks, most of the States in the US’s eastern megalopolis are worse. To begin, here’s Kevin Drum’s dashboard of major European countries, plus Canada, as of May 27: He doesn’t show it, but since Spain had the worst outbreak among major Western European countries, here it is: And here, by...

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Weekly Indicators for May 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha

 - by New Deal democratMy Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.The news can be summed up in two words: “less awful.” With the exception of one employment measure, every other indicator has bounced off their recent lows, some very substantially. Meanwhile lower interest rates are setting the stage for growth after the pandemic effects ebb.As usual, clicking over and reading helps reward me with a couple of pennies for my efforts.

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April personal income and spending: considering the extreme circumstances, a good report

 - by New Deal democratApril personal income and spending, reported this morning, showed the impact of both the lockdowns and the stimulus that was passed by the Congress. To cut to the chase, spending in real inflation-adjusted terms declined -13% (red), while real income rose 11%(blue): Unlike the recent jobs report, this is not a byproduct of the layoffs that were concentrated in the lower wage sector, which changed the composition of the labor force. Rather, this is an aggregate...

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Lawrence Summers discovers bargaining power

 - by New Deal democratMainline macroeconomics pretends to be “value neutral,” by which practitioners mean that they assign no moral value to the supply or demand curves to the participants in the economy: they simply exist. The question of *why* participants in the economy have particular supply and demand curves is simply not even in the universe of parameters.But in my experience “why” participants in an economy are willing to pay x amount for y good or service most often comes back to...

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Initial and continuing jobless claims: good “less worse” news

 - by New Deal democrat Weekly initial and continuing jobless claims give us the best snapshot of the continuing  economic impacts of the coronavirus to the average worker. Ten weeks in, there is some significant “less bad” news. First, here are initial jobless claims both seasonally adjusted (blue) and non- seasonally adjusted (red). The non-seasonally adjusted number is of added importance since seasonal adjustments should not have more than a trivial effect on the huge real numbers:...

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Coronavirus, the economy, and the election: the jury is still out on all three

 - by New Deal democratThere is some housing data out today; I’ll probably have a post up about it tomorrow at Seeking Alpha, and I’ll link to it here. Meanwhile, the jury is still out on the effects of the “reopening” of many States on coronavirus infections. Here’s a graph of the 7 day average of tests, new infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, divided between the Boston, NYC, Philadelphia metro areas and Michigan on the one hand and everywhere else:  Testing has continued...

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Coronavirus dashboard: emphasis on testing

 - by New Deal democratI want to focus this edition on testing issues. While the seven day average number of deaths continues to decline: The seven day average number of new infections has leveled off: The average number of daily tests *may* also be leveling off again in the past few days: What is worse is that the number of new cases in the US has only declined -22% from its peak in the last 45 days. Meanwhile, even hard hit countries in Europe like Spain have seen a...

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Weekly Indicators for May 18 – 22 at Seeking Alpha

 - by New Deal democratMy Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.Many of the indicators are bouncing off their worst levels, especially those like mortgages that are affected by lower interest rates. On the other hand, employment losses continue to spread out.As usual, clicking over and reading not only should be educational for you, but rewards me a little bit for my efforts.

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Bad news and good news on coronavirus; plus, implications for Election Day

 - by New Deal democratNo economic news today as we head into the Memorial Day weekend, but there are a few coronavirus and economic/political developments of note. First, the bad news: the declining trend in new diagnosed cases of coronavirus in the US has stopped in the past week. Instead new cases have leveled off. Here’s a graph from Conor Kelly’s excellent tableau coronavirus dashboard page: Cases in the US outside of NY actually increased slightly (2%) in the past week. Now,...

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Initial jobless claims: employment damage continues to spread

 - by New Deal democratNow that there is more than one month of data from initial and continuing jobless claims since the coronavirus lockdowns started, we can begin to trace whether the economic impacts of the virus are being contained, or are continuing to spread out into further damage. Nine weeks in, it appears that, insofar as employment is concerned, the damage is continuing to spread. First, let’s look at initial jobless claims both seasonally adjusted (blue) and non- seasonally...

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