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Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog

The Bonddad Blog is authored by Hale Stewart, a financial advisor. His blog publishes an invaluable weekly economic review on the Bond Market, International Economics, and Equity and Economics. These links along with his highly detailed review of economic trends makes this one of the top economics blogs

Personal income and spending both surprisingly continued to increase in September, plus a note on GDP

 - by New Deal democratYesterday the first estimate of Q3 GDP was reported. Since this report includes 2 long leading indicators, it gives us insight into what the economy might be like in the 2nd half of next year.I have a post on that up at Seeking Alpha. As usual, clicking over and reading should be informative for you, and it rewards me a little bit for my efforts.This morning personal income and spending for September was reported. Both real income and spending increased, which is...

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Jobless claims: continued slow progress

 - by New Deal democratA quick note about the first report of Q3 GDP released this morning: the rebound is only about 2/3’s of the decline from last year. We are still about 3.5% below that number. On a *relative* basis, this was a “good” number, but on an absolute basis, this is still quite depressed.This week’s new jobless claims continued to decline further below 800,000, and continued claims also made a new pandemic low.On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by...

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An examination of the Framers’ arguments as to how the US Supreme Court would function: The Federalist Papers No’s. 78, 79, and 81

 - by New Deal democratThis is a follow-up on yesterday’s post regarding the history of the Judiciary under republics. In that post I pointed out that the concept of an independent judiciary is a modern one that started in the era of Britain’s Glorious Revolution of 1688, and was radically expanded by the US Constitution. How the framers envisioned the US Supreme Court fit into the scheme of three independent branches of government was set forth in The Federalist Papers numbers 78 through...

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A brief history of the Judiciary under Republics; the radical departure of the US Constitution, and how to reform it now

 - by New Deal democratI’ll have a note up, probably at Seeking Alpha tomorrow, on new home sales, which get reported later this morning.In the meantime, especially with the likely confirmation of the 6th movement conservative Justice today, who will probably immediately start to rule on election issues, I want to flesh out in outline form my thoughts on the Supreme Court. I am going by memory in this note, so some of this info is not entirely correct and will need to be checked further.1....

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The 2020 Presidential and Senate nowcasts: in 2020 the “blue wall” looks very likely to hold, but expect surprises in the Senate

 - by New Deal democratHere is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College. At only 9 days from Election Day, the polls, while actually nowcasts rather than forecasts, are probably less than 1.75% off the final result. All of the fundamentals of the election are already “baked into the cake,” and it appears Trump’s attempt at an “October surprise” has...

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Weekly Indicators for October 19 – 23 at Seeking Alpha

 - by New Deal democratMy Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.Although there has been no new stimulus package, and none looks likely at least until possibly a new Administration takes over on January 20, the overall tenor of the economy is one of slow, in some cases glacial, improvement.As usual, clicking over and reading brings you virtually up to the moment on the economic data, and rewards me with a penny or two in my pocket for compiling that information.

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Jobless claims: a very positive reversal

 - by New Deal democratThis week’s new jobless claims report not only reversed last week’s increase, but declined below 800,000 for the first time on an *un*revised basis. I say that because revisions from two weeks ago now have that week as the lowest since the pandemic struck.  [NOTE: California has restarted reporting its claims, and has also reported for the past two weeks, and is the likely cause of the big revisions - generally downward, or positive.]On a non-seasonally adjusted basis,...

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Coronavirus dashboard for October 20: some good news among the gloom

 - by New Deal democratTotal US confirmed infections: 8,273,296*Average US infections last 7 days: 59,527 (vs. recent low of 34,354 on Sept 12)Total US deaths: 221,052Average US deaths last 7 days: 738 (vs. recent low of 689 4 days ago)*I suspect the real number is 14-15,000,000, or over 4% of the total US populationSource: COVID Tracking ProjectAs we head into the cold weather, experts are warning that, as bad as the pandemic has been up until now, it is likely to be far worse over the next...

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