Sunday , January 17 2021
Home / Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog

Hale Stewart: Bonddad Blog

The Bonddad Blog is authored by Hale Stewart, a financial advisor. His blog publishes an invaluable weekly economic review on the Bond Market, International Economics, and Equity and Economics. These links along with his highly detailed review of economic trends makes this one of the top economics blogs

Weekly Indicators for January 11 – 15 at Seeking Alpha

 - by New Deal democratMy Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.While initial jobless claims have continued to worsen, there is no sign of a generalized downturn in the coincident data, and the upturn in long term interest rates isn’t enough to change their fundamental positive impact on the economy.As usual, clicking over and reading is rewarding just a little bit for me, and brings you up to the virtual moment as to what is happening in the economy.

Read More »

Good news (industrial production) and bad news (retail sales)

 - by New Deal democratThis morning’s two reports on industrial production and retail sales for December were a case of good news and bad news.Let’s do the good news first. Industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, rose 1.6% in December. The manufacturing component rose 1.0%. Needless to say, these are a strongly positive numbers. As a result, overall production is only -3.3% below its February level, while manufacturing is only down -2.4% since February:Manufacturing has...

Read More »

Jobless claims highest in three months – but seasonality still playing a huge role

 - by New Deal democratOn a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 231,335 to 1,151,015. Seasonally adjusted claims also rose by 181,000 to 965,000. The 4 week moving average rose by 18,250 to 834,250.Here is the close up since the end of July (these numbers were in the range of 5 to 7 million at their worst in early April): There is now a 2+ month trend of YoY% increases in initial claims. Further, by rising to over 900,000, seasonally adjusted claims hit one of my two markers for a...

Read More »

December inflation: real aggregate wages fall as real average wages rise due to compositional effects

 - by New Deal democratConsumer inflation typically rises as expansions continue, and declines once recessions start. Once a recovery begins, inflation typically steadies again. While the pandemic has affected both consumer demand and the supply chain, overall the paradigm should still apply. With that in mind, let’s take a look at December’s report.For the past 40 years, recessions had typically happened when CPI less energy costs (red) had risen to close to or over 3%/year. As of this...

Read More »

November JOLTS report shows renewed impact of pandemic, partial lockdowns

 - by New Deal democratThis morning’s JOLTS report for November (remember - a month in which there were total job gains) showed a jobs market recovery that at least paused due to the increasing effects of the out of control pandemic. Hires were up (good), while quits were unchanged, openings declined (bad) and layoffs and discharges rose (bad).While the JOLTS data is a deep dive into the dynamics of the labor market, since it only dates from 2001, there are only 2 previous recoveries with...

Read More »

Scenes from the December jobs report

 - by New Deal democratFriday’s December jobs report saw the first decline in employment since the lockdowns of March and April. Let’s take a closer look.As I pointed out Friday, the losses were concentrated in the food and dining (restaurant) and amusement and recreation sectors, both of which are shown below normalized to 100 as of February:The two sectors are down 20% and 30% from their February peaks.By contrast, the leading job sectors of manufacturing, residential and overall...

Read More »

Programming note

 - by New Deal democratFour year ago I wrote a valedictory piece about the Obama Administration, and separately wrote of my fears of what the Trump Administration would wreak.Needless to say, especially in light of events of the past week, I intend to do the same retrospective as to Trump and the current state of the GOP and the Republic. Much of what I have to say is in agreement with disparate threads I have read on twitter, but I want to weave those strands together into one cohesive...

Read More »

Weekly Indicators for January 4 – 8 at Seeking Alpha

 - by New Deal democratMy Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.Although yesterday’s employment report was negative, there is still no sign of any broad-based downturn in the broader economy. Rather, losses appear contained to the dining and entertainment sectors.As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you up to the moment, and brings me a tiny jingle in my pocket.Also ... in the conclusion, I make reference to the improvement in the daily average of people being vaccinated...

Read More »

December jobs report: I told you so – jobs actually declined in December; BUT employment primed for takeoff once pandemic abates

 - by New Deal democratImportant: There was a huge amount of seasonality in this report. This is common for December, but the issue was greatly exacerbated because of the outsized impact of the pandemic. Take the large changes in some of the data with many grains of salt.I have been warning for almost 4 weeks that the December employment report might have a negative number. It did. At the same time, the internals are not nearly so bad as the headline.HEADLINES:-140,000 million jobs lost,...

Read More »

Jobless claims start 2021 continuing flat to increasing trend; negative December jobs number increasingly likely

 - by New Deal democratOn a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 77,400 to 922,072. Seasonally adjusted claims declined by 3,000 to 787,000. The 4 week moving average declined by 18,750 to 818,750. All of these are above their recent lows. Here is the close up since the end of July (these numbers were in the range of 5 to 7 million at their worst in early April): At the same time, neither of these has hit my established markers of renewed upward trend of seasonally adjusted new...

Read More »