Saturday , July 24 2021
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Epsilon Theory

Enemies Real and Imagined

Today I want to share three things I think I know based on what Radiant, our platform for analyzing the prevalence of various narratives in markets, has been telling us. Then I want to share what I think I think about what that means. First, what I think I know. And no, I don’t think any of this is particularly earth-shattering or controversial. I think I know that the prevailing structure of central bank narratives is that the Fed can’t, shouldn’t and won’t move away from...

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Welcome to Metaworld

Source: Images from two dueling opinion articles on a rise in violent crime in the US – both from John Minchillo (AP) Let’s start with an assignment. Take a look at the graphic below. It is a network graph visualization built using the software from Quid, much like the network maps we publish all the time. A dot (or node) in this visualization is a single news article. Articles with the same colors have been arranged into a cluster by linguistic similarity. Connecting lines...

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ET Podcast #12 – Proof of Plant

The Epsilon Theory podcast is free for everyone to access. You can grab the mp3 file below, or you can subscribe at: I want to change the language of crypto from mining to growing, and I don’t mean in a metaphorical sense. I mean a proof-of-plant method for literally growing crypto tokens as a representation of the value stored in the human cultivation of plants. More generally, this is a method for the tokenization of symbolic betting markets in positive social...

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What is Robinhood?

Marc Rubinstein has over 25 years experience as an analyst and investor in the financials sector which he distills into a free weekly newsletter, Net Interest, which I think is a really great read! Between 2006 and 2016 he was senior analyst and portfolio manager on the Lansdowne Global Financials Fund, a fundamental long/short equity fund focused exclusively on the global financials sector. Prior to that, Marc was an Institutional Investor ranked analyst on the sell-side, most...

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Let Me Make the Songs

Epsilon Theory may have gotten its formal start in 2013, but the soft launch took place in 1991. That’s when my partner Ben finished his doctoral work at <lifts nose slightly> a school up in Cambridge. His work there (and his 1997 book, Getting to War) focused on how news could be used to predict the likelihood of war. It also analyzed how news was used by institutions and individuals to foment an appetite for and belief in the necessity of war, which is related to but not the...

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The Narrative Machine v3.0

DISCLOSURES This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your responsibility. Epsilon Theory will not accept liability...

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Cursed Knowledge: Weinstein and the Oscars

The Epsilon Theory podcast is free for everyone to access. You can grab the mp3 file below, or you can subscribe at: Cursed Knowledge is our latest podcast that explores how narratives, for better and worse, have shaped our world without us noticing. The world is full of people pushing their version of reality on us and it’s time to expose the truth. No matter how much you might wish we hadn’t. Harvey Weinstein is a terrible person who did terrible things. But he doesn’t get...

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The Political Autotuning of Inflation

The politicization of inflation into a partisan “There Is No Inflation!” TMnarrative by the nudgers and mandarins on the left is really depressing. The politicization of inflation into a partisan “Biden Inflation!” TM narrative by the clowns and raccoons on the right is really depressing. It’s really depressing because it makes it impossible for me to say anything on inflation without getting lumped into an insane partisan box. It’s an entirely constructed and...

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I’m So Tired of the Transitory Inflation “Debate”

In Epsilon Theory notes, we use a lot of images of politicians and bankers shaking their fingers at us, because it’s a great way to communicate what we mean by Fiat News – the proclamation of opinion as fact. Fiat News is to hard news what fiat money is to hard money, and like fiat money, it’s a dominant transactional medium in modern human society. When a famous person shakes his or her finger at you, they’re not telling you a fact. They’re telling you how to think about a...

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Litigation Finance

I first came across Bruce Packard in a note published by another ET contributor, Marc Rubinstein. Like Marc, I’m fascinated by the formation of new “asset classes” and their associated narratives, and over the past decade I’ve been pitched litigation-finance-as-an-asset-class dozens of times. I’m indebted to Marc for making the introduction to Bruce, who has many years experience in the space, most recently via a litigation finance crowdfunding platform (Axia Funder), and delighted...

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