Doug Short Advisor Perspectives

[unable to retrieve full-text content] The latest full set UIG for October is 4.26% while the prices-only measure is 4.40%. Current Headline CPI is now 6.22% and Core CPI is 4.56%.

[unable to retrieve full-text content] Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.

[unable to retrieve full-text content] The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution).

[unable to retrieve full-text content] Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. Also included are the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation. We can make some inferences about how inflation is impacting our personal expenses depending on our relative exposure to the individual components.

[unable to retrieve full-text content] We've updated our monthly workforce analysis to include the latest Employment Report for October. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.6%, and the number of new nonfarm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 531K.

[unable to retrieve full-text content] The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 6.22%, up from 5.39% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 4.56%, up from 4.03% the previous month and is above the Fed's 2% PCE target.

[unable to retrieve full-text content] At present, multiple jobholders account for 4.7 percent of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the current relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.

[unable to retrieve full-text content] As of November 9, the price of Regular and Premium were up two cents each from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $4.61 and Oklahoma has the cheapest at $3.00. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 81.93, down 2.5% from last week and up 72% from the beginning of the year. 

[unable to retrieve full-text content] The headline number for October came in at 98.2, down 0.9 from the previous month. The index is at the 37th percentile in this series.

[unable to retrieve full-text content] This morning's release of the October Producer Price Index (PPI) for Finished Goods was at 1.2% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from a 1.5% increase last month. It is at 12.5% year-over-year, up from 11.7% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Finished Goods (less food and energy) came in at 0.3% MoM, down from the 0.6% previous month and is up 5.6% YoY NSA. The October PPI for Final Demand was at 0.6%...