Doug Short Advisor Perspectives

[unable to retrieve full-text content] Despite the global COVID-19 pandemic, a recession, and a looming election, the S&P 500 is up 3.7% YTD and just 1.03% below its all-time record high. 

[unable to retrieve full-text content] What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and our current recession risk?

[unable to retrieve full-text content] This commentary has been updated to include this morning's release of Nonfarm Employment. July's 1.8M increase in total nonfarm payrolls had revisions that resulted in 17K more jobs than previously reported. The Investing.com consensus was for 1.5M jobs gained and the unemployment rate to decrease to 10.6%.

[unable to retrieve full-text content] This morning's employment report for July showed a 1.8M increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was above the Investing.com forecast of 1.6M.

[unable to retrieve full-text content] This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 135.3, up 1.3 from the previous week. The WLIg is at -5.3, up slightly from last week and the WLI YoY is at -7.83, also up from last week.

[unable to retrieve full-text content] This morning's seasonally adjusted 1.19M new claims, down 250K from the previous week's revised figure, was better than the Investing.com forecast of 1.42M.

[unable to retrieve full-text content] Here's the latest on the three largest cryptocurrencies by market share: bitcoin, Ether, and XRP.

[unable to retrieve full-text content] Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost The relationship of the S&P Composite price to a regression trendline

[unable to retrieve full-text content] Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $15,352 for an annualized real return of 8.60%.

[unable to retrieve full-text content] The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has now released the July Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), also known as the ISM Services PMI. The headline Composite Index is at percent 58.1, up 1.0 from 57.1 last month. Today's number came in above the Investing.com forecast of 55.0 percent.