Saturday , November 27 2021
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Dash of Insight

Jeff Miller runs Dash of Insight, a blog that showcases a hands-on approach to trading and investing. This approach is coupled with an instinctive and detailed analysis of market and economic trends.

Bad News

It’s Derek again. My dad, Jeff Miller, died on May 7, 2021. It was a total shock. Even though he had been hospitalized for over two months, all indications were that he was recovering steadily. Just the day before, he had been deemed stable enough to be transferred out of a step-down hospital and into a rehab facility. We really thought the worst was behind us. With that in mind, I apologize for the delay in reporting the bad news. It’s been difficult to sit down and write about his...

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Quick Update on Jeff

Hi, folks — this is Jeff’s son, Derek. I’ve had many eager readers reach out to ask why there’s been no WTWA the last few weeks. I thought I should fill y’all in. Jeff is in the hospital with a nasty case of pneumonia. The good news is that he has tested negative on repeated Covid tests, including an antibody test. Still, his doctors, Mrs. Oldprof, and myself are making sure that getting better is his sole focus for the near future. You’ll be the first to know when he is back in...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Building a Transition Portfolio

We have a moderate week for data, featuring housing, sentiment, and unemployment claims. Most important will be the report on personal income and spending. Attention will remain focused on vaccine progress and the pandemic, as well as the progress through Congress of a stimulus package. With markets near record highs, many investors are wondering about the safety of their portfolios. With growing hope for a full economic recovery, it is wise to ask: Is it time to build a “transition”...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: A Letter from Mr. Market!

We have a big week for data and only four days to digest it. Retail sales and housing data will be most important. Industrial production will provide evidence about the strength of the recovery. Some of the punditry will get lost in the data while others continue the fruitless effort to reconcile market prices with economic fundamentals. (Schwab, Paul Schatz). I normally join in these efforts, but something special happened last week. My key questions have been answered by: A letter from Mr....

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Does the Reddit Rebellion Threaten Investor Portfolios?

We have a big week for data, including both ISM reports and a focus on employment. Investors thirst for more data about the strength of the economic rebound. We are also in the heart of earnings season, worried about vaccines, and wondering if Washington will provide more help. Despite this jam-packed agenda the financial media highlight a story that is much more fun. Someday our focus can return to data and earnings. For now, many are worried, asking: How will the Reddit Rebellion affect my...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: What Will Biden Proposals Mean for Investors?

We have a light, holiday-shortened week ahead. There are several reports on housing, but everyone will be focused on the Inauguration and hopes for a peaceful transition of power. Anyone with skin in the game will be asking: What does a Biden Administration mean for my investments? In my last installment of WTWA, I suggested the need for substantial earnings growth to justify stock valuations. I also introduced Springtime Blossom Indicators – what we really need to monitor in our search for...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Earnings Growth Justify Current Stock Prices?

We have an array of interesting data in the week ahead including inflation news, more employment numbers, and sentiment from consumers and small businesses. Most importantly we have the start of earnings season. Despite this, the political story will dominate, at least for a bit longer. While this is newsworthy, it is not the key element for investors. What best depicts this challenge to find the right focus? Let us turn to Chance the Gardener! The simple-minded gardener who knows only what...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: What Can Investors Expect before Springtime?

We can enjoy two light weeks for economic reports. Both are holiday-shortened, implying lower volume but not necessarily lower volatility. Personal income and spending will be especially interesting, along with updated unemployment claims data. It is also an especially important time to monitor sentiment. The biggest reports are schedule for the first week of 2021. The calendar will prompt many to offer specific and complex forecasts for next year. Good luck with that! It is necessary for...

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Weighing the Week Ahead: What Can Investors do about Gridlock?

We have another normal week for economic reports, featuring retail sales and housing data (NAHB Index, building permits, housing starts). Industrial production is from November, so it is a bit stale. Jobless claims continue to be a current and reasonably reliable indicator. The economy remains secondary for market participants. It has been ignored for months, so why change now? Attention has mostly been on more fiscal stimulus, with daily market moves registering even small hints of progress....

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Weighing the Week Ahead: What is the State of the Recovery?

We have a normal economic calendar with a focus on sentiment and inflation data. Economic reports remain secondary to Mr. Market. It has been a lights on, lights off situation with celebration of pandemic news and improvements in the Washington situation. We know much more than we did a month ago. It might not be a clear crystal ball, but it should be easier to identify key risks. It is time for investors to ask: What is the state of the economic recovery? In my last installment of WTWA,...

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