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Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics

Constantin Gurdgiev, a Russian economist based in Dublin, is the creator of True Economics. His blog covers economic ideas and analysis on current news stories and global economic events. Given the level of detail, this blog is more suited for people familiar with intermediate macroeconomic concepts.

13/7/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

Russia continues to report slowly declining numbers of new cases, while official death rates are trending up: The above numbers confirm what I have been saying for some time now: relaxation of constraints in advance of the constitutional referendum vote was too fast, too early to achieve a meaningful control over the pandemic numbers.One controversial statistic reported by the Russian authorities is the death rates (see more on this...

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13/7/20: COVID19 Update: US vs EU27

While I was whitewater rafting over the weekend, the US of A has finally surpassed the EU27 in terms of overall death counts relating to COVID19 pandemic. This is without adjusting the figures for population size or pandemic onset timing, etc.So here are the updated charts comparing the U.S. and the EU27:In case numbers, the U.S. is on a clear 'lead' relative to 'slow' EU27. The latter has smashed the curve, the former is 'enjoying' a public health disaster befitting a country with no real...

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13/7/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

The COVID19 Pandemic is far from over. It is, in fact, is far from slowing down.Worldwide new cases arrivals are still raging at a medium-term increasing rates: Much of this growth, commented on in the chart above, is coming from the emerging and developing economies, with lower rates of testing, implying the true extent of the pandemic is much greater than thee official stats reflect.Deaths counts are now trending at an elevated level, compared to the trough around late May and early...

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13/7/20: COVID19, Self-Employed and Contingent Workforce

Self-employed workers rarely get any systemic/analytical attention from policymakers and business analysts. Despite their huge importance in modern economies. This especially applies to the current environment, impacted by COVID19, in which policy tools used to offer some security of income and jobs tenure as an insurance against the pandemic have been focused almost exclusively on protections and supports to regular employees and employers, leaving the self-employed outside the safety...

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10/7/20: COVID19 Update: Sweden v Nordics

Sweden has been continuing its uncontested-by-anyone-else march toward thee non-existent 'herd immunity': And the pipeline of upcoming intensive care patients seems to be un-abating: In the mean time, the rest of the Nordics have crushed the curve. And this is without inclusion of Iceland.  Personally, I cannot understand how Sweden's resident are tolerating this, but... who knows... 

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10/7/20: COVID19 Update: US vs EU27

Updating charts on the U.S. vs EU27 comparatives for COVID19 pandemic:U.S. is now one day away from catching up with the EU27 in terms of total deaths, even without adjusting for the larger EU27 population: Note: since higher rates of testing - per 1 million population - should result in earlier and better detection of the COVID19 cases, and since the U.S. population is younger, demographically, than that of the EU27, one should expect U.S. death rates peer 1 million of population to be...

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10/7/20: COVID19 Update: World Cases and Deaths

Updating COVID19 data through today's ECDC release: Worldwide, new cases are at a historic high of 227,756, reaching above 200K in three days in a row. In the last 7 days, we have had highest, second and third highest daily counts on record. This is despite the fact that testing remains spotty in higher growth geographies (emerging and developing economies). The trend is accelerating, as well (see last chart, blue line).Deaths:  In the last seven days, we had three days with daily...

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10/7/20: America’s Scariest Charts Updated

Updating my series of 'America's Scariest Charts' for the latest data releases this week.First: continued unemployment claims for data through the week of June 27th. Continued unemployment claims fell from 18,760,000 in the week of June 20 to 18,062,000 in the week of June 27. Continued claims are now down 6,850,000 from their pandemic-period peak, which implies a decline of 978,571 per week since the peak. Based on the last two weeks' average weekly decline, it will take around 28 weeks...

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