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Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics

Constantin Gurdgiev, a Russian economist based in Dublin, is the creator of True Economics. His blog covers economic ideas and analysis on current news stories and global economic events. Given the level of detail, this blog is more suited for people familiar with intermediate macroeconomic concepts.

17/7/20: COVID19 Update: USA vs EU27

Snippets of news from the Land of Publicly Global Disaster:Georgia: GOP Governor Brian Kemp suing the Democratic mayor of Atlanta, Keisha Lance Bottoms, because she mandated use of protective masks in public. Kemp issued an executive order banning cities and towns from mandating masks.Oklahoma: GOP governor Kevin Stitt is infected with COVID19, a few days after he was out in a crowded restaurant and shopping, without wearing a mask.Federal level of venality:  And then there are the...

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17/7/20: Debt Servicing Burden: U.S. Households

Going into the COVID19 pandemic, the U.S. households cost of servicing debt and other financial obligations has been trending at historical lows. The data we have is through 1Q 2020. In April, personal disposable income rose 13.1 percent, before falling 4.9 percent in May. We won't know the data for actual debt servicing burden for June until July 31st, but the above monthly income figures suggest that the burden of overall financial obligations should have fallen to around 13.955 percent...

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16/720: Updated: America’s Scariest Charts: Unemployment Claims

New data for the week prior on continued and new unemployment claims continues to support a view of a relatively slow and slowing-down recovery in the U.S. labour markets.Continued unemployment claims: Continued unemployment claims in the week of July 4 amounted to 17,338,000 down 422,000 on prior week. A week before, the rate of decline was 1,000,000, and in 4 weeks prior to the the week of July 4, 2020, average weekly rate of decline was 711,500. Current 4 weeks average rate of...

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13/7/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

Russia continues to report slowly declining numbers of new cases, while official death rates are trending up: The above numbers confirm what I have been saying for some time now: relaxation of constraints in advance of the constitutional referendum vote was too fast, too early to achieve a meaningful control over the pandemic numbers.One controversial statistic reported by the Russian authorities is the death rates (see more on this...

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13/7/20: COVID19 Update: US vs EU27

While I was whitewater rafting over the weekend, the US of A has finally surpassed the EU27 in terms of overall death counts relating to COVID19 pandemic. This is without adjusting the figures for population size or pandemic onset timing, etc.So here are the updated charts comparing the U.S. and the EU27:In case numbers, the U.S. is on a clear 'lead' relative to 'slow' EU27. The latter has smashed the curve, the former is 'enjoying' a public health disaster befitting a country with no real...

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13/7/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

The COVID19 Pandemic is far from over. It is, in fact, is far from slowing down.Worldwide new cases arrivals are still raging at a medium-term increasing rates: Much of this growth, commented on in the chart above, is coming from the emerging and developing economies, with lower rates of testing, implying the true extent of the pandemic is much greater than thee official stats reflect.Deaths counts are now trending at an elevated level, compared to the trough around late May and early...

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13/7/20: COVID19, Self-Employed and Contingent Workforce

Self-employed workers rarely get any systemic/analytical attention from policymakers and business analysts. Despite their huge importance in modern economies. This especially applies to the current environment, impacted by COVID19, in which policy tools used to offer some security of income and jobs tenure as an insurance against the pandemic have been focused almost exclusively on protections and supports to regular employees and employers, leaving the self-employed outside the safety...

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