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Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics

Constantin Gurdgiev, a Russian economist based in Dublin, is the creator of True Economics. His blog covers economic ideas and analysis on current news stories and global economic events. Given the level of detail, this blog is more suited for people familiar with intermediate macroeconomic concepts.

18/11/20: COVID19 Update: Russia

 Updating pandemic data for Russia: some summary stats firstThe above stats clearly show that Russian pandemic is in  full-blown second wave of infections and deaths. As the chart below illustrates, however:Russian second wave has been associated with exactly matching dynamics in both cases and deaths without any substantial lags;Both cases and deaths are yet to show any signs of stabilization and peaking (which is distinct from the EU27 experience so far);The two effects combined suggest...

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18/11/20: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27

Comparatives for the pandemic development across the EU27 vs U.S.:Thanks to an absolutely savage second wave of the pandemic, EU27 is now closing the gap with the U.S. in terms of total deaths, both in absolute terms and in per capita terms:Deaths per capita: the U.S. has overtaken the EU27 since May 18, and the trend for the U.S. continued to be worse than that for the EU27 until early October.EU27 death rate per capita has effectively flattened-out at around 308 per 1 million prior to...

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18/11/20: COVID19 Update: Countries with > 100,000 cases

 Updating the tables for countries with more than 100,000 recorded cases of COVID19:U.S. continues to lead globally in terms of deaths and new cases counts. On per-capita terms, the U.S. ranks 7th worst in the world in terms of cases per 1 million of population, 12th worst in terms of deaths per 1 million of population and 27th worst in the world in terms of deaths per 1,000 officially detected infections. The country has, by far, the most expensive (as a share of GDP) healthcare system in...

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18/11/20: COVID19 Update: Worldwide Cases and Deaths

 Updating data on global COVID19 pandemic spread:Some summary tables first;November-to-date is an outlier month in terms of both, case numbers and deaths. While the former is in part driven by better availability of testing, the latter runs contrary to the expected outrun of improved testing: higher rates pf testing lead to earlier detection of the disease and, in theory, should lead to reduced deaths. Unfortunately, this is not the case. Daily average new deaths are running at 8.294 so far...

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17/11/20: U.S. households: Debt Hostages to the Washington

Massive stimulus deployed in Q2 2020 has lifted substantially aggregate household incomes. Meanwhile, lower interest rates have boosted debt affordability, while new demand for credit collapsed. All of which means that, at least through 2Q 2020, U.S. households enjoyed some really dramatic reduction in the burden of debt:Income boost from Government transfers in 2Q 2020 was so large, it took household debt to income ratio down by a whooping 3 years in just one quarter, with the ratio...

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16/11/20: Velocity of Money and the Glaciers of Complacency

Last time I looked at the velocity of money, things were going South fast: And considering thee data through 3Q 2020, there is little improvement across the board:You can barely notice 3Q 2020 uptick from the pandemic lows in all three measures, thee M1, M2 and MZM. And here are differentials:Precautionary savings motives (blue line) remain extremely elevated, while investors' willingness to trade assets (in a...

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16/11/20: Retail sales, Sector employment and COVID19 recovery

Retail sales suffered a sharp shock from the demand contraction following the first phase of COVID19 pandemic. As of the end of September, based on the preliminary estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, total volume of retail sales in the U.S. has fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels:Based on cumulative retail sales over trailing 12 months period, September 2020 stood at USD 5.519 trillion, which is USD48.371 billion above 12 months trailing cumulative for January 2020, and USD121.178...

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13/11/20: The economy has two chronic illnesses (and neither are Covid)

My column for The Currency this week covers two key long-term themes in the global economy that pre-date the pandemic and will remain in place well into 2025: the twin secular stagnations hypotheses and the changing nature of the productivity. The link to the article is here;  

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