Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics

Recalling the Celtic Tiger, edited by Brian Lucey, Eamon Maher and Eugene O’Brien is coming out this week from the series of Reimagining Ireland Volume 93, published by Peter Lang, DOI 10.3726/b16190, ISBN 978-1-78997-286-3.The book includes 12 mini-chapters by myself and multitude of contributions from some top-level contributors. Wroth buying and reading... and can be ordered here: https://www.peterlang.com/view/title/71254.

Euromoney analysis of Q3 2019 results for country risk surveys and risk outlook forward, with lots of comments from myself and others: https://www.euromoney.com/article/b1hjf7xr90tdkj/ecr-survey-results-q3-2019-us-china-canada-mexico-punished-by-tariffs.

My first column for The Currency covering "Ireland, global trade wars and economic growth: Why Ireland’s economic future needs to be re-imagined": https://www.thecurrency.news/articles/1151/ireland-global-trade-wars-and-economic-growth-why-irelands-economic-future-needs-to-be-re-imagined. Synopsis: “Trade conflicts sweeping across the globe today are making these types of narrower bilateral agreements the new reality for our producers and policymakers.”

My this week's column for The Currency is covering the build up of systemic risks in the global corporate bond markets: https://www.thecurrency.news/articles/1962/constantin-gurdgiev-corporate-bond-markets-are-primed-for-a-blowout. Synopsis: "Individual firms can be sensitive to the periodic repricing of risk by the investors. But collectively, the entire global corporate bond market is sitting on a powder keg of ultra-low government bond yields, with a risk-off fuse lit by the...

Myself and Professor Shaen Corbet of DCU have a new article on the LSE Business Review site covering our latest published research into cryptocurrencies valuations and dynamics: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2019/10/07/bitcoin-ethereum-and-ripple-a-fractal-and-wavelet-analysis/.The article profiles in non-technical terms our paper "Fractal dynamics and wavelet analysis: Deep volatility and return properties of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple" currently in the process of publication...

Divided they stand... Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-29/lagarde-inherits-ecb-tinged-by-bitterness-of-draghi-stimulusThe ECB is more divided than ever on the 'new' direction of QE policies announced earlier this month, as its severely restricted 'political mandate' comes hard against the reality of VUCA environment the euro area is facing, with: Reduced forward growth forecasts (net positive uncertainty factor for QE) Anaemic inflation expectations (net positive...

In our post for Columbia Law School's CLS Blue Sky Blog, myself and Shaen Corbet explain in non-technical terms our ground-breaking findings on systemic nature of cybersecurity risks in financial markets:LexBlog link: https://www.lexblog.com/2019/09/26/evidence-of-systemic-risk-from-major-cybersecurity-breaches/ CLS link: http://clsbluesky.law.columbia.edu/2019/09/27/evidence-of-systemic-risk-from-major-cybersecurity-breaches/ Original working...

The glut of debt and the unbearable lightness of corporate leverage:

Our new paper, "What the hack: Systematic risk contagion from cyber events" is now available at International Review of Financial Analysis in pre-print version here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521919300274.Highlights include:We examine the impact of cybercrime and hacking events on equity market volatility across publicly traded corporations. The volatility generated due to cybercrime events is shown to be dependent on the number of clients exposed....

Our paper "Fractal dynamics and wavelet analysis: Deep volatility and return properties of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple" is now available in The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance - early stage print version - here https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1062976919300730.