Constantin Gurdgiev: True Economics

My musings on the Irish election 2020 via Russia's Kommersant.ru: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4220157.

"Poekhali!" sad Vlad, refraining Yuri Gagarin's famous phrase. And just like, with a sweep of his hand, Mr. Putin hasRemoved the entire Russian Cabinet, including his long-serving pal, now ex-Prime Minister Medvedev; Outlined a hefty set of forward-promised reforms; and Added billions of dollars to the Global GDP by creating a tsunami of Russia-related analysis, opinion pieces, reports and updates in the vast Kremlinology Sector bridging journalism, opinnionism, and think-tankerism. WTF...

Phase 1 of N of the "Greatest Trade Deal" that is "easiest to achieve' by the 'stablest Genius' is hitting the newsflows today. Which brings us to two posts worth reading on the subject:Post 1 via Global Macro Monitor: https://global-macro-monitor.com/2020/01/15/phase-1-of-potemkin-trade-deal-signed-sealed-and-yet-to-deliver/ is as always (from that source) excellent. Key takeaways are:"We never believed for one moment that China would cave on any of the big issues, such as restructuring...

Via BAML and @tracyalloway, a chart plotting the distribution of annual returns on S&P500, 1872-2019: The stylised nature of this plot allows us to see the right-skew in the distribution, across all  'bins', especially for the last decade.

Next week, the  Office of the US Trade Representative is expected to make a determination on the potential imposition of an up to 100% tariff on imports of wine from Europe. Which is a bad thing for the overall state of the global trade, bad news for the European producers of wine, bad news for the American consumers and their European counterparts, and bad news for the U.S. wine industry. But 'bad things' do not stop there. There will be costs imposed on restaurants and bars. There will...

There is a smashingly good paper out from the Bank of England, titled "Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the ‘suprasecular’ decline, 1311–2018", Staff Working Paper No. 845, by Paul Schmelzing.Using "archival, printed primary, and secondary sources, this paper reconstructs global real interest rates on an annual basis going back to the 14th century, covering 78% of advanced economy GDP over time."Key findings:"... across successive monetary and fiscal regimes, and a...

Our new paper, with Daniel O'Loughlin, titled "Herding and Anchoring in Cryptocurrency Markets: Investor Reaction to Fear and Uncertainty" has been accepted to the Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, forthcoming February 2020. The working paper version is available here: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3517006.Abstract:Cryptocurrencies have emerged as an innovative alternative investment asset class, traded in data-rich markets by globally distributed...

My new article for @TheCurrency_, titled "Creative destruction and consumer credit: A Fintech song for the Irish banks" is out. Link: https://www.thecurrency.news/articles/6150/creative-destruction-and-consumer-credit-fintech-song-for-the-irish-banks.Key takeaways: Irish banks need to embrace the trend toward higher degree of automation in management of clients' services and accounts, opening up the sector to fintech solutions rather than waiting for them to eat the banks' lunch....

My article on U.S. economy and the implied risks to investors for Manning Financial and Cathedral:https://cfc.ie/2019/12/10/tax-cuts-trade-and-growth-the-trumponomics-effect/. #USEconomy #Economics #Markets #USgrowth #GlobalGrowth #GlobalEconomy #SecularStagnation @cathedrlfinance @sheehymanning 

Euromoney on Eurozone risks into 2020, with some comments from me: https://www.euromoney.com/article/b1js9nd289vtm9/country-risk-2020-vision-brings-the-eurozones-risks-into-focus.