Wednesday , July 8 2020
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The author Bill McBride
Bill McBride
A full time blogger, Mr. McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

Calculated Risk

Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending, FOMC Minutes

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 3,000,000 payroll jobs added in June, up from 2,760,000 lost in May. • At 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.0, up from 43.1 in May.• At 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for May. The...

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June 30 COVID-19 Test Results

The US is now conducting over 500,000 tests per day, and that might be enough to allow test-and-trace in some areas. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly.According to Dr. Jha of Harvard's Global Health Institute, the US might need more than 900,000 tests per day.There were 648,838 test results reported over the last 24...

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Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Increased in May

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency increased to 0.89% in May, from 0.70% in April. The serious delinquency rate is up from 0.70% in May 2019.This is the highest serious delinquency rate since June 2018.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.Click on graph for larger imageBy vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (2% of portfolio),...

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Las Vegas Visitor Authority: "No Convention Attendance, Hotel Occupancy 2.8%" in May

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: May 2020 Las Vegas Visitor StatisticsReflecting the continued shutdown in place due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas visitation in May (approx. 151k visitors) was a small fraction of typical levels.Like April, May saw no measurable convention attendance occurring in the destination.Occupancy for the month came in at 2.8% as most of the destination's 148k+ hotel rooms were temporarily closed during the shutdown, while the average day rates (ADR) among...

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"Chemical Activity Barometer Falls Slightly In June"

Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Falls Slightly In June The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), eased 0.3 percent in June on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a 4.6 percent decline in May. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer fell 12.0 percent in June.The unadjusted data show a 3.5...

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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.7% year-over-year in April

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for April ("April" is a 3 month average of February, March and April prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.From S&P: Annual Home Price Gains Remained Steady In April According To S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller IndexThe S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census...

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Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Fed Chair Powell Testimony

Note: Here is Fed Chair Powell's prepared testimony: Coronavirus and CARES ActFrom Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Continue at All-Time Lows, But Caveats RemainMortgage rates were unchanged to slightly lower today, bringing the average lender right in line with all-time lows. [30YR FIXED - 2.95%]emphasis addedTuesday:• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for April. The consensus is for a 3.8% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for April.• At...

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June 29 COVID-19 Test Results

The US is now conducting over 500,000 tests per day, and that might be enough to allow test-and-trace in some areas. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly.According to Dr. Jha of Harvard's Global Health Institute, the US might need more than 900,000 tests per day.There were 569,394 test results reported over the last 24...

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MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 8.47%" of Portfolio Volume

Note: To put these numbers in perspective, the MBA notes "For the week of March 2, only 0.25% of all loans were in forbearance."From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 8.47%The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 1 basis point from 8.48% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 8.47% as of June 21, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate,...

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