Monday , October 14 2019
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The author Bill McBride
Bill McBride
A full time blogger, Mr. McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

Calculated Risk

Schedule for Week of October 6, 2019

The key report this week is the September CPI on Thursday.Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks on data dependence on Tuesday.----- Monday, Oct 7th -----3:00 PM: Consumer Credit from the Federal Reserve.----- Tuesday, Oct 8th -----6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September.8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for September from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI.2:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Data Dependence in an Evolving...

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AAR: September Rail Carloads down 7.0% YoY, Intermodal Down 4.6% YoY

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. There’s still no relief in sight for U.S. rail traffic. Total originated U.S. rail carloads fell 7.0% in September 2019 from September 2018, their eighth straight year-over-year decline. In the third quarter, total carloads were down 5.4%; for the year through September, they were down 3.8%.…Intermodal was weak too — originations were down 4.6% in September, down 5.8% in the...

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Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms

By request, here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed Chair, or any other marker.NOTE: Several readers have asked if I could add a lag to these graphs (obviously a new President has zero impact on employment for the month they are elected). But that would open a debate on the proper length of the lag, so I'll just stick to the beginning of each term.Important:...

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Q3 GDP Forecasts: Just Under 2%

From Merrill Lynch: These data edged down 3Q GDP tracking by a tenth to 1.7% qoq saar. [Oct 3 estimate]emphasis addedFrom Goldman Sachs: We also lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.9% (qoq ar). [Oct 3 estimate]From the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.0% for 2019:Q3 and 1.3% for 2019:Q4. [Oct 4 estimate].And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of...

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Trade Deficit increased to $54.9 Billion in August

From the Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $54.9 billion in August, up $0.9 billion from $54.0 billion in July, revised.August exports were $207.9 billion, $0.5 billion more than July exports. August imports were $262.8 billion, $1.3 billion more than July imports. Click on graph for larger image.Both exports and imports increased in August. Exports are 26% above the...

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Comments on September Employment Report

The headline jobs number at 135 thousand for September ex-Census (136K total including temp Census hires) was below consensus expectations of 145 thousand, however the previous two months were revised up 45 thousand, combined. The unemployment rate declined to 3.5%; the lowest rate since 1969.Earlier: September Employment Report: 136,000 Jobs Added, 3.5% Unemployment RateIn September, the year-over-year employment change was 2.147 million jobs including Census hires (note: this will be...

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September Employment Report: 136,000 Jobs Added, 3.5% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: The unemployment rate declined to 3.5 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 136,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in health care and in professional and business services continued to trend up.... Employment in government continued on an upward trend in September (+22,000). Federal hiring for the 2020 Census was negligible (+1,000)....The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 7,000...

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Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit

My September Employment Preview.Goldman's September Payrolls preview.Friday:• At 8:30 AM: Employment Report for September. The consensus is for 145,000 jobs added, up from 130,000 in August (including temporary Census hires). The consensus is the unemployment rate will be unchanged at 3.7%.• At 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for the deficit to be $54.5 billion in August, from $54.0 billion in July.• At 2:00 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome...

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Goldman: September Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in September, compared to consensus of +146k. While employment surveys weakened further on net, their levels are still consistent with above-potential job growth. …We estimate a one tenth decline in the unemployment rate to 3.6%. … emphasis addedCR Note: It will be important to adjust for decennial Census hiring. Ex-Census the Goldman forecast is for about 135K jobs.

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Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate Mixed in Q3 2019

Reis reported that the vacancy rate for regional malls was 9.4% in Q3 2019, up from 9.3% in Q2 2019, and up from 9.1% in Q3 2018. This is at the cycle peak of 9.4% in Q3 2011, and up from the cycle low of 7.8% in Q1 2016.For Neighborhood and Community malls (strip malls), the vacancy rate was 10.1% in Q3, down from 10.2% in Q2, and down from 10.2% in Q3 2018. For strip malls, the vacancy rate peaked at 11.1% in Q3 2011, and the low was 9.8% in Q2 2016.Comments from Reis: The Retail vacancy...

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