Wednesday , July 8 2020
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The author Bill McBride
Bill McBride
A full time blogger, Mr. McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

Calculated Risk

MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Rise in First Quarter of 2020"

This is mostly pre-COVID. The second quarter will see a large increase in delinquencies (forbearance will be included as delinquent in Q2).From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Rise in First Quarter of 2020The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.36 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter of 2020, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.The...

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Small Business Optimism Decreased Sharply in April

Most of this survey is noise, but there is some information, especially on the labor market.From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): April 2020 ReportSmall business optimism took another dive in April, falling 5.5 points to 90.9, with owners expressing certainty the economy will weaken in the near-term, but expecting it to improve over the next six months. The Optimism Index has fallen 13.6 points over the last two months, with nine of 10 Index components declining in...

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BLS: CPI decreased 0.8% in April, Core CPI decreased 0.4%

From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.8 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest monthly decline since December 2008, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 0.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.A 20.6-percent decline in the gasoline index was the largest contributor to the monthly decrease in the seasonally adjusted all items index, but the indexes for apparel,...

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Tuesday: CPI

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start Strong But End Day HigherMortgage rates began the day slightly lower compared to last Friday, but that didn't last long. Underlying bond markets were under pressure from the outset. When bond prices fall, rates move higher, all other things being equal.The bond market has a few concerns at the moment--many of them "relative." In fact, it's hard to complain too much about mortgage rates "moving higher" when this afternoon's...

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May 11 Update: US COVID-19 Test Results: Progress!

The US might be able to test 400,000 to 600,000 people per day sometime in May according to Dr. Fauci - and that might be enough for test and trace.However, the US might need more than 900,000 tests per day according to Dr. Jha of Harvard's Global Health Institute.There were 394,711 test results reported over the last 24 hours. Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 4.5% (red line). The US probably needs...

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MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 7.91%" of Portfolio Volume

Note: To put these numbers in perspective, the MBA notes "For the week of March 2, only 0.25% of all loans were in forbearance."From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 7.91%The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased from 7.54% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 7.91% as of May 3, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, almost 4 million homeowners...

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Education and Unemployment

This graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older) through Feb 2020.Unfortunately this data only goes back to 1992 and includes only two previous recessions (the stock / tech bust in 2001, and the 2007-2009 housing bust/financial crisis). Clearly education matters with regards to the unemployment rate.Note: There was a data error in the original post in the Bachelors Degree series. This has been fixed.Click on graph for larger image.Note:...

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Last Week: NY Fed Q1 Report: "Pre-COVID-19 Data Shows Total Household Debt Increased in Q1 2020"

Note: This was released last week.From the NY Fed: Pre-COVID-19 Data Shows Total Household Debt Increased in Q1 2020, Though Growth in Non-Housing Debt SlowsThe Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, which shows that total household debt increased by $155 billion (1.1%) to $14.30 trillion in the first quarter of 2020. The total balance is now $1.6 trillion higher, in nominal terms, than the previous peak...

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Four High Frequency Indicators for the Eventual Recovery

These indicators are for travel and entertainment - some of the sectors that will probably recover very slowly.The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. Click on graph for larger image.This data shows the daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red).On May 10th there were 200,815 travelers compared to 2,419,114 a year ago.That is a decline of over 91.7%. There has been some increase off the bottom, but it is pretty small compared to the normal level of...

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Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of May 10, 2020Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 5 and DOW futures are up 50 (fair value).Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $24.52 per barrel and Brent at $30.67 barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $62, and Brent was at $72 - so WTI oil prices are down about 60% year-over-year. Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices...

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