Monday , October 14 2019
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The author Bill McBride
Bill McBride
A full time blogger, Mr. McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

Calculated Risk

Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms

By request, here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed Chair, or any other marker.NOTE: Several readers have asked if I could add a lag to these graphs (obviously a new President has zero impact on employment for the month they are elected). But that would open a debate on the proper length of the lag, so I'll just stick to the beginning of each term.Important:...

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Trade Deficit decreased to $55.2 Billion in June

From the Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $55.2 billion in June, down $0.2 billion from $55.3 billion in May, revised.June exports were $206.3 billion, $4.4 billion less than May exports. June imports were $261.5 billion, $4.6 billion less than May imports. Click on graph for larger image.Exports and imports decreased in June. Exports are 25% above the pre-recession peak and...

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Comments on July Employment Report

The headline jobs number at 164 thousand for July was close to consensus expectations of 156 thousand, however the previous two months were revised down 41 thousand, combined. The unemployment rate increased to 3.7%. Overall this was a decent report. Note: Temporary Decennial Census hiring for July is not available yet (something to watch). Earlier: July Employment Report: 164,000 Jobs Added, 3.7% Unemployment RateIn July, the year-over-year employment change was 2.246 million jobs. That...

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July Employment Report: 164,000 Jobs Added, 3.7% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 164,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and technical services, health care, social assistance, and financial activities. ... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 10,000 from +72,000 to +62,000, and the change for June was revised down by 31,000 from +224,000 to +193,000....

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Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit

My July employment preview.Goldman's July payroll preview.Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for July.   The consensus is for 156,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 3.6%.• Also at 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $54.7 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $55.5 Billion the previous month.• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for July). The...

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year, "Hotels’ rocket is losing fuel"

From Jan Freitag at HotelNewsNow.com: June data shows US hotels’ rocket is losing fuel Well, it finally happened, 12-month-moving-average occupancy is no longer at record levels. June 12MMA occupancy at 66.2% was below the May result of 66.3%. Occupancy bottomed out in January 2010 (54.5%), and we had reported consecutively higher annualized occupancies ever since. Starting in May 2015 (64.9%), each month we reported the highest annualized occupancy ever—until now. Let’s raise a coffee in...

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Goldman: July Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 190k in July, 25k above consensus of +165k. While July employer surveys declined on net, jobless claims and job availability measures remain at very strong levels, and we also expect a boost from Census hiring worth 10-20k. …We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. … We estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.2% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year...

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July Employment Preview

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for July. The consensus is for an increase of 156,000 non-farm payroll jobs in July, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 3.6%.Last month, the BLS reported 224,000 jobs added in June.Here is a summary of recent data:• The ADP employment report showed an increase of 156,000 private sector payroll jobs in July. This was ate consensus expectations of 155,000 private sector payroll jobs added. The ADP report hasn't been...

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ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 51.2 in July

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in July. The PMI was at 51.2% in July, down from 51.7% in June. The employment index was at 51.7%, down from 54.5% last month, and the new orders index was at 50.8%, up from 50.0%.From the Institute for Supply Management: July 2019 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in July, and the overall economy grew for the 123rd consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest...

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Construction Spending Declined in June

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending declined in June:Construction spending during June 2019 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,287.0 billion, 1.3 percent below the revised May estimate of $1,303.4 billion. The June figure is 2.1 percent below the June 2018 estimate of $1,314.8 billion.Both private and public spending decreased:Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $962.9 billion, 0.4 percent below the...

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