Monday , October 14 2019
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The author Bill McBride
Bill McBride
A full time blogger, Mr. McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

Calculated Risk

Fed Chair Powell: "Data-Dependent Monetary Policy in an Evolving Economy"

Excerpt from Fed Chair Powell: Data-Dependent Monetary Policy in an Evolving EconomyWhat Does Data Dependence Mean at Present?In summary, data dependence is, and always has been, at the heart of policymaking at the Federal Reserve. We are always seeking out new and better sources of information and refining our analysis of that information to keep us abreast of conditions as our economy constantly reinvents itself. Before wrapping up, I will discuss recent developments in money markets and...

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2020 Economic Forecast featuring the UCI Paul Merage School of Business

This is almost sold out!On October 23rd, I will be one of three speakers at the "2020 Economic Forecast featuring the UCI Paul Merage School of Business" in Newport Beach, California, sponsored by the Newport Beach Chamber of Commerce.UCI Finance Professor Christopher Schwarz and I will be discussing the 2020 economic outlook, and Dr. Richard Afable will be discussing "The Future of the Healthcare System".This is a lunch time event (from 11:15 am to 1:30 pm) at the Balboa Bay Resort.Click...

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Las Vegas Real Estate in September: Sales up 14% YoY, Inventory up 22% YoY

This is a key former distressed market to follow since Las Vegas saw the largest price decline, following the housing bubble, of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Southern Nevada home prices inch up as supply stays tight; GLVAR housing statistics for September 2019The total number of existing local homes, condos and townhomes sold during September was 3,430. Compared to one year ago, September sales were up 12.9% for homes...

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Small Business Optimism Index Decreased in September

CR Note: Most of this survey is noise, but there is some information, especially on the labor market and the "Single Most Important Problem".From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): September 2019 Report: Small Business Optimism Declines but Remains Historically HighThe small business Optimism Index maintained a historically solid reading, but took a dip in September, falling 1.3 points to 101.8. ..Job creation was firm in September, with an average addition of 0.10...

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Tuesday: Small Business Optimism, PPI, Fed Chair Powell Speaks

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Might be Hitting Some ResistanceMortgage rates moved lower every week for the past 3 weeks. They covered a respectable amount of ground during that time and ultimately erased most of September's damage by Friday afternoon.In outright terms, September's weakness pushed the average 30yr fixed rate quote roughly 3/8ths of a percentage point (.375%) higher. The past 3 weeks have helped to claw back roughly 0.25% of that. [Most...

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A few comments on WaPo story: "Federal government has dramatically expanded exposure to risky mortgages"

First a few excerpts from the WaPo: Federal government has dramatically expanded exposure to risky mortgages The federal government has dramatically expanded its exposure to risky mortgages, as federal officials over the past four years took steps that cleared the way for companies to issue loans that many borrowers might not be able to repay.…Taxpayers are shouldering much of the risk, while a growing number of homeowners face debt payments that amount to nearly half of their monthly...

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Update: Framing Lumber Prices Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.   Lumber prices declined from the record highs in early 2018, and are now mostly unchnaged year-over-year.This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through Aug 16, 2019 (via NAHB), and 2) CME framing futures.Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.Right now Random Lengths prices are down 7% from a year ago, and CME futures are up  1% year-over-year.There is a seasonal...

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Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for August: National Delinquency Rate near Series Low

Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for August today. According to Black Knight, 3.45% of mortgages were delinquent in August, down from 3.52% in August 2018. Black Knight also reported that 0.48% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.54% a year ago.This gives a total of 3.93% delinquent or in foreclosure.Press Release: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Lower Interest Rate Environment Boosts Home Affordability to Nearly Three-Year High; Home Price Growth Flat...

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Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of October 6, 2019Monday:• At 3:00 PM, Consumer Credit from the Federal Reserve.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 are down 17 and DOW futures are down 140 (fair value).Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $52.65 per barrel and Brent at $58.11 barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $74, and Brent was at $85 - so oil prices are down about 25% year-over-year. Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline...

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate "Dipped" Year-over-year

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 28 SeptemberThe U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 22-28 September 2019, according to data from STR.In comparison with the week of 23-29 September 2018, the industry recorded the following:• Occupancy: -0.4% to 71.2%• Average daily rate (ADR): -0.5% to US$136.63• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): -0.8% to US$97.26emphasis addedThe following graph...

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