Wednesday , July 8 2020
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The author Bill McBride
Bill McBride
A full time blogger, Mr. McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

Calculated Risk

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,427,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending June 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,427,000, a decrease of 55,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 1,480,000 to 1,482,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,503,750, a decrease of 117,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 1,620,750 to 1,621,250. emphasis addedThe previous week was revised up.This...

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June Employment Report: 4.8 Million Jobs Added, 11.1% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 11.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In June, employment in leisure and hospitality rose sharply. Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade,...

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Thursday: Employment Report, Initial Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for June.   The consensus is for 3,074,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 12.3%.• Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a 1.400 million initial claims, down from 1.480 million the previous week.• Also at 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $52.4 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at...

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July 1 COVID-19 Test Results, Highest Percent Positive Since Early May, Over 50,000 Positive

UPDATE: First post didn't include California numbers. Now updated.The US is now conducting over 500,000 tests per day, and that might be enough to allow test-and-trace in some areas. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly.According to Dr. Jha of Harvard's Global Health Institute, the US might need more than 900,000 tests per...

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FOMC Minutes: Pandemic "Posed considerable downside risks to the economic outlook over the medium term"

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee June 9-10, 2020. A few excerpts: Over the intermeeting period, risk sentiment improved, on net, as optimism over reopening the economy, potential coronavirus treatments, the unexpectedly positive May employment situation report, and other indicators that suggest that economic activity may be rebounding more than offset concerns arising from otherwise dire economic data releases, warnings from health experts that openings may have...

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June Employment Preview

On Thursday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for June (Friday is a holiday).  The consensus is for an increase of 3.1 million non-farm payroll jobs, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 12.3%.Last month, the BLS reported 2,509,000 jobs added in May and the unemployment rate decreased to 13.3%.There was quite a bit of discussion last month on misclassification of workers, and it is likely the actual unemployment rate was much higher than 13.3% last...

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Construction Spending Decreased in May

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased in May:Construction spending during May 2020 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,356.4 billion, 2.1 percent below the revised April estimate of $1,386.1 billion. The May figure is 0.3 percent above the May 2019 estimate of $1,352.9 billion. During the first five months of this year, construction spending amounted to $543.2 billion, 5.7 percent above the $513.7 billion for the same period in 2019....

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ISM Manufacturing index Increased to 52.6 in June

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in June. The PMI was at 52.6% in June, up from 43.1% in May. The employment index was at 42.1%, up from 32.1% last month, and the new orders index was at 56.4%, up from 31.8%.From the Institute for Supply Management: June 2020 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in June, with the overall economy notching a second month of growth after one month of contraction, say the nation’s supply...

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ADP: Private Employment increased 2,369,000 in June

From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 2,369,000 jobs from May to June according to the June ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. “Small business hiring picked up in the month of June,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “As the economy slowly continues to recover, we are seeing a...

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications decreased 1.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 26, 2020.... The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 74 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted...

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