Wednesday , May 18 2022
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The author Bill McBride
Bill McBride
A full time blogger, Mr. McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

Calculated Risk

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of May 8, 2022Monday:• At 2:00 PM ET, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for April.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 25 and DOW futures are down 170 (fair value).Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $109.60 per barrel and Brent at $112.24 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $66 and Brent was at $69 - so WTI oil prices are up 70% year-over-year. Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for...

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Vehicle Sales Mix and Heavy Trucks

It will be interesting to see if high gasoline prices will lead to a higher percentage of passenger car sales.The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for April last week. This graph shows the percent of light vehicle sales between passenger cars and trucks / SUVs through April 2022.Over time the mix has changed more and more towards light trucks and SUVs.Only when oil prices are high, does the trend slow or reverse.  The percent of light trucks and SUVs was at 79.0%...

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Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: • Housing: "What Killed the Home ATM in 2006?"• Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Record Low Delinquencies, "Home Affordability Nears All-Time Low"• Rent Increases Up Sharply Year-over-year, Pace may be slowing• Denver Real Estate in April: Active Inventory up Sharply• Lawler: Mortgage/Treasury Spreads, Part I• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April Realtor.com shows active inventory down only 3% year-over-yearThis is usually published...

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Schedule for Week of May 8, 2022

The key report this week is April CPI.Note: The Census Bureau is expected to release "National, State, and County housing units" from the 2020 Census sometime in May.----- Monday, May 9th -----2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for April.----- Tuesday, May 10th -----6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April.11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q1 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit----- Wednesday, May 11th -----7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers...

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COVID May 6, 2022: New Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths Increasing

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):COVID Metrics  NowWeekAgoGoal Percent fully Vaccinated66.3%---≥70.0%1 Fully Vaccinated (millions)220.0---≥2321 New Cases per Day3🚩67,26354,883≤5,0002 Hospitalized3🚩12,60211,162≤3,0002 Deaths per Day3🚩341315≤502 1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).2my goals to stop daily posts,37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases,...

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AAR: April Rail Carloads and Intermodal Down Year-over-year

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. U.S. rail traffic in April 2022 was like a box of assorted chocolates: it had something for everyone. Optimists can point to several commodities that had solid traffic gains. For example, April 2022 was the third best month ever for carloads of chemicals, with carloads up 3.4% over last year. April’s carloads of iron and steel scrap were the highest since August 2013,...

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1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April; Realtor.com shows active inventory down only 3% year-over-year

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in AprilA brief excerpt: Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in April. Note: Inventory usually increases seasonally in April, so some month-over-month (MoM) increase is not surprising.Inventory was up 31.7% in April MoM from March, and up 9.7% year-over-year (YoY). The YoY increase in inventory in these markets was impacted by San Diego (a very tight market). The other markets...

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Used Vehicle Wholesale Prices Decline Seasonally Adjusted in April

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decline in April From Seasonal AdjustmentWholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage- and seasonally adjusted basis) declined 1.0% in April from March. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index declined to 221.2, which was up 14.0% from a year ago. The non-adjusted price change in April was an increase of 2.9% compared to March, leaving the unadjusted average price up 16.4% year over year.Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw...

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Comments on April Employment Report

This was another solid report.The headline jobs number in the April employment report was slightly above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 39,000.   The participation rate and the employment-population ratio both decreased slightly, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6%.Excluding leisure and hospitality, the economy has added back all the jobs lost at the beginning of the pandemic.  Leisure and hospitality gained 78...

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April Employment Report: 428 thousand Jobs, 3.6% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 428,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing.The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 36,000, from +750,000 to +714,000, and the change for March was revised down by 3,000, from +431,000 to...

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