Wednesday , September 18 2019
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The author Bill McBride
Bill McBride
A full time blogger, Mr. McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

Calculated Risk

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in AugustBased on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.42 million in August, unchanged from July’s preliminary estimate and down 1.3% from last August’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales will probably be down slightly from a year...

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CAR on California: "Low interest rates boost California housing market"

The CAR reported: Low interest rates boost California housing market as median home price sets another record, C.A.R. reportsThe lowest mortgage interest rates in nearly three years helped jump start California’s housing market to post the first year-over-year sales gain and highest sales level in 15 months, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.Fueled by mortgage interest rates at near-three-year lows, California’s housing market recorded a second consecutive...

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NAHB: "Builder Confidence Hits Yearly High in September "

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 68 in September, up from 67 in August. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.From NAHB: Builder Confidence Hits Yearly High in September Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose one point to 68 in September from an upwardly revised August reading of 67, according to the latest National Association of Home...

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Industrial Production Increased in August

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity UtilizationIndustrial production rose 0.6 percent in August after declining 0.1 percent in July. Manufacturing production increased 0.5 percent, more than reversing its decrease in July. Factory output has increased 0.2 percent per month over the past four months after having decreased 0.5 percent per month during the first four months of the year. In August, the indexes for utilities and mining moved up 0.6 percent and 1.4 percent,...

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Tuesday: Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Rates Recover Modestly, But Uncertainty Remains[M]ortgage rates won't care in the slightest when and if the Fed cuts rates this Wednesday. The Fed's outlook on future rate cuts and on its policy stance in general will be of far more interest. Until we're through Fed day, volatility potential remains high. That said, the bond market was at least willing to respond to the weekend's Saudi oil news in an expected way (i.e. rates moved slightly lower...

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Phoenix Real Estate in August: Sales up 8.6% YoY, Active Inventory Down 16.6% YoY

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports ("Stats Report"):1) Overall sales increased to 8,726 in August, down from 9,192 in July, but up from 8,036 in August 2018. Sales were down 5.1% from July 2019 (last month), and up 8.6% from August 2018.2) Active inventory was at 13,350, down from 16,035 in August 2018. That is down 16.6% year-over-year.3) Months of...

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Update: Predicting the Next Recession

CR September 2019 Update: In 2013, I wrote a post "Predicting the Next Recession". I repeated the post in January 2015 (and in the summer of 2015, in January 2016, in August 2016, in April 2017, in April 2018, and in October 2018) because of all the recession calls. In late 2015, the recession callers were out in force - arguing the problems in China, combined with the impact on oil producers of lower oil prices (and defaults by energy companies) - would lead to a global recession...

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Hotels: Some Analyis of Short Term Rentals; Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year

First, some analysis from HotelNewsNow on the impact of short term rentals on hotels: The effects of maturing short-term rentals on US hotels From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 7 SeptemberThe U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 1-7 September 2019, according to data from STR.In comparison with the week of 2-8 September 2018, the industry recorded the following:• Occupancy: -1.1% to 61.0%•...

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NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity was little changed in New York State"

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business activity was little changed in New York State, according to firms responding to the September 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index edged down three points to 2.0. New orders were marginally higher than last month, and shipments grew modestly. Delivery times were steady, and inventories increased. Employment levels expanded, while the average workweek held steady. ...After spending...

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Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of September 15, 2019• FOMC PreviewMonday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 4.9, up from 4.8.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 are down 11 and DOW futures are down 88 (fair value).Note: Oil futures are up about 10% following the attack on the Saudi oil facilities.  Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $60.84 per barrel and Brent...

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