Saturday , July 24 2021
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The author Bill McBride
Bill McBride
A full time blogger, Mr. McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

Calculated Risk

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 9% Compared to Same Week in 2019

Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.  So STR is comparing to the same week in 2019.The occupancy rate is down 8.7% compared to the same week in 2019.From CoStar: STR: Weekly US Hotel Occupancy Reaches Pre-Pandemic Level While ADR Drops SlightlyU.S. weekly hotel occupancy reached its highest level since October 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through July 17.July 11-17, 2021 (percentage change from...

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July 22nd COVID-19, New Cases, Hospitalizations, Vaccinations

The 7-day average cases is the highest since May 8th.The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since May 28th.This data is from the CDC.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.Total doses administered: 339,763,765, as of a week ago 336,054,953. Average doses last week: 0.53 million per day.COVID Metrics  TodayYesterdayWeekAgoGoal Percent over 18,One Dose68.6%68.4%67.9%≥70.0%1,2 Fully Vaccinated✅(millions)162.2161.9160.4≥1601 New Cases per Day3🚩40,24637,64227,443≤5,0002...

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Comments on June Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.86 million in JuneTwo key points:1) Existing home sales are still somewhat above pre-pandemic levels. Seasonally adjusted (SA) sales for May were the highest since 2006, and sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) in June 2021 were also the highest since 2006. Some of the increase over the previous eleven months was probably related to  record low mortgage rates, strong second home buying, a strong stock market and favorable...

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Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in June

Note: At the beginning of the pandemic, the delinquency rate increased sharply (see table below).   Loans in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this survey, but those loans are not reported as delinquent to the credit bureaus.From Black Knight: Black Knight: 1.55 Million Serious Delinquencies Remain; At Current Rate of Reduction, 1 Million Still Likely As September's Wave of Forbearance Expirations Begins• The national delinquency rate hit its lowest level since the onset of...

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NMHC: July Apartment Market Tightness Index Highest on Record

The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) released their July report: July Apartment Market Conditions Showed Improvement Across All MetricsApartment market conditions showed continued improvement in the National Multifamily Housing Council’s Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions for July 2021. For the first time since October 2015, the Market Tightness (96), Sales Volume (79), Equity Financing (69), and Debt Financing (71) indexes all came in above the breakeven level...

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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.86 million in June

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Expand 1.4% in JuneExisting-home sales increased in June, snapping four consecutive months of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Three of the four major U.S. regions registered small month-over-month gains, while the fourth remained flat. However, all four areas notched double-digit year-over-year gains. Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, grew 1.4%...

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 419,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending July 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 419,000, an increase of 51,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 8,000 from 360,000 to 368,000. The 4-week moving average was 385,250, an increase of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 2,000 from 382,500 to 384,500. emphasis addedThis does not include the 96,362 initial claims...

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for a decrease to 348 thousand from 360 thousand last week.• Also at 8:30 AM, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June. This is a composite index of other data.• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for June from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.90 million SAAR, up from 5.80 million last month. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to...

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Existing Home Inventory in June: Local Markets

I'm gathering existing home data for many local markets, and I'm watching inventory very closely this year.The table below shows some local market data for June.Note: California reported a 15.4% increase in active inventory from May to June, but they don't report the actual numbers - so California isn't include in the table below.  But this is similar increase to most other areas.As I noted in Some thoughts on Housing Inventory The key for housing in 2021 will be inventory. If inventory...

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July 21st COVID-19, New Cases, Hospitalizations, Vaccinations

The 7-day average cases is the highest since May 9th.The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since May 30thThis data is from the CDC.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.Total doses administered: 339,102,867, as of a week ago 335,487,779. Average doses last week: 0.52 million per day.COVID Metrics  TodayYesterdayWeekAgoGoal Percent over 18,One Dose68.4%68.3%67.8%≥70.0%1,2 Fully Vaccinated✅(millions)161.9161.6160.1≥1601 New Cases per Day3🚩37,67335,51224,709≤5,0002...

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