Saturday , May 8 2021
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The author Bill McBride
Bill McBride
A full time blogger, Mr. McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

Calculated Risk

May 7th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations

President Biden has set two vaccinations goals to achieve by July 4th:1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and2) 160 million Americans fully vaccinated.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations1) 57.4% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose.2) 109.9 million Americans are fully vaccinated.Note: I'll stop posting this daily once all three of these criteria are met:1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and2) new...

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AAR: April Rail Carloads down 10.1%, Intermodal Up 10.4% Compared to 2019

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Numerous U.S. rail traffic categories have completely recovered the ground lost during the pandemic or are very close to doing so. For example, April saw a new all-time record for U.S. intermodal shipments, driven by surging international trade and strong consumer spending. The weekly average for intermodal for April was 293,488 containers and trailers, breaking the...

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Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.This data is as of May 4th.From Black Knight: Forbearance Volumes Fall by More Than 100KMay continued the strong trend of early forbearance improvements seen each month – the first week of the month saw volumes fall by 105,000 (-4.5%). Declines were seen across the board, with GSE forbearance volumes falling by 39,000 (-5.3%), FHA/VA plan volumes improving by 44,000...

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MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the First Quarter of 2021"

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the First Quarter of 2021The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 6.38 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter of 2021, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. For the purposes of the survey, MBA asks servicers to report loans in forbearance as delinquent if the payment was not made based on...

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Comments on April Employment Report

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was well below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down.  Leisure and hospitality gained 331 thousand jobs.  In March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 2.85 million jobs since February 2020.  So leisure and hospitality has now added back about 65% of the jobs lost in March and April 2020.Construction employment was unchanged in April,...

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April Employment Report: 266 Thousand Jobs, 6.1% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 266,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains in leisure and hospitality, other services, and local government education were partially offset by employment declines in temporary help services and in couriers and messengers....The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised up by 68,000, from +468,000 to +536,000,...

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May 6th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations

President Biden has set two vaccinations goals to achieve by July 4th:1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and2) 160 million Americans fully vaccinated.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations1) 57.0% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose.2) 108.1 million Americans are fully vaccinated.Note: I'll stop posting this daily once all three of these criteria are met:1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and2) new...

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Goldman April Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 1,300k in April (mom sa) ... We estimate a five-tenths decline in the unemployment rate to 5.5%, reflecting rapid job gains partially offset by an expected rise in the participation rate.emphasis addedCR Note: The consensus is for 978 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.7%.

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 17% Compared to Same Week in 2019

Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic. However, occupancy is still down significantly from normal levels.The occupancy rate is down 17% compared to the same week in 2019.From CoStar: STR: US Hotels End April With Positive Weekend Occupancy StreakU.S. hotel occupancy remained relatively flat compared with the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through May 1.April 25 through May 1, 2021:• Occupancy:...

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