Thursday , October 21 2021
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The author Bill McBride
Bill McBride
A full time blogger, Mr. McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

Calculated Risk

October 19th COVID-19: 37 Days till Thanksgiving; Need to Get Daily Cases Down Before Holidays

The CDC is the source for all data.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 408,797,942, as of a week ago 403,576,826, or 0.75 million doses per day.COVID Metrics  TodayWeekAgoGoal Percent fully Vaccinated57.0%56.5%≥70.0%1 Fully Vaccinated (millions)189.3187.7≥2321 New Cases per Day375,57189,957≤5,0002 Hospitalized352,14659,038≤3,0002 Deaths per Day31,2601,298≤502 1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).2my goals to...

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Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September

From housing economist Tom Lawler:Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.2 million in September, up 5.4% from August’s preliminary pace but down 3.7% from last September’s seasonally adjusted paceLocal realtor reports, as well as reports from national inventory trackers, suggest that the YOY % decline in...

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Most Housing Units Under Construction Since 1974

Today, in the Newsletter: Most Housing Units Under Construction Since 1974Excerpt: Census will release data next year on the length of time from start to completion, and that will probably show long delays in 2021. In 2020, it took an average of 6.8 months from start to completion for single family homes, and 15.4 months for buildings with 2 or more units.Combined, there are 1.426 million units under construction. This is the most since 1974.Please subscribe!

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Housing Starts Decreased to 1.555 Million Annual Rate in September

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and CompletionsHousing Starts:Privately‐owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,555,000. This is 1.6 percent below the revised August estimate of 1,580,000, but is 7.4 percent above the September 2020 rate of 1,448,000. Single‐family housing starts in September were at a rate of 1,080,000; this is virtually unchanged from the revised August figure of 1,080,000. The September rate for units in buildings with...

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Tuesday: Housing Starts

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Highest Rates in MonthsMortgage rates had a mixed showing last week. They started out high before improving through Thursday. Finally, they took a step back up on Friday. Now at the start of the new week, the upward momentum is continuing. [30 year fixed 3.21%]emphasis addedTuesday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for September. The consensus is for 1.620 million SAAR, up from 1.615 million SAAR.

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4th Look at Local Housing Markets in September; Adding Austin, California, Des Moines, Houston and Maryland

Today, in the Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in SeptemberExcerpt: Inventory in San Diego is at an all time low, whereas inventory in Denver and Sacramento is up more than double from the all time low earlier this year.Austin and Sacramento are two of the few areas with inventory up YoY. The C.A.R. reported today that inventory in 40% of the markets in California are either unchanged or up year-over-year. This is a change.Please subscribe!

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MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 2.28%"

Note: This is as of October 10th.From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 2.28%The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 34 basis points from 2.62% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 2.28% as of October 10, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.1 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in...

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October 18th COVID-19: Data Released On Monday is Always Low and Revised Up

The CDC is the source for all data.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 408,265,959, as of six days ago 403,576,826, or 0.78 million doses per day.COVID Metrics  TodayWeekAgoGoal Percent fully Vaccinated57.0%56.4%≥70.0%1 Fully Vaccinated (millions)189.1187.4≥2321 New Cases per Day367,76391,262≤5,0002 Hospitalized350,75060,078≤3,0002 Deaths per Day31,0931,350≤502 1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%).2my goals to...

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Housing Inventory Oct 18th Update: Inventory Down Slightly Week-over-week

Tracking existing home inventory will be very important this year.Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.As of October 15th, inventory was at 424 thousand (7 day average), compared to 554 thousand for the same week a year ago.  That is a decline of 23.6%.Compared to the same week in 2019, inventory is down 55% from 936 thousand.  A week ago, inventory was at 426 thousand, and was down 23.3% YoY.   Seasonally,...

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NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 80 in October

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 80, up from 76 in September. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.From the NAHB: Strong Demand Boosts Builder Confidence Despite Supply Chain DisruptionsStrong consumer demand helped push builder confidence higher in October despite growing affordability challenges stemming from rising material prices and shortages. Builder sentiment in the...

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