Thursday , July 18 2019
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Is the stock market rally floating on thin air?

The stock market went nowhere today. Today’s headlines: S&P internal weakness Low volume vs. high volume rallies Short term, medium term, and long term trend Mean reversion Consumer discretionary on fire Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day. S&P internal weakness? I saw a popular tweet on Twitter that looks at the S&P’s internal sectors. According...

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Medium-Long Term Model’s performance

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Weekly update: our models & indices right now

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Market outlook: is the stock market about to soar after a big breakout?

The S&P 500 reached 3000 this week for the first time, and the broad stock market is breaking out from a range that has lasted from January 2018 – present. While there is still the ever-present group of market watchers who think that stocks will crash, more and more traders are seeing the possibility of a big post-breakout rally. As I said last week, I think a middle ground scenario is more likely. This is just a normal rally towards the end of a bull market. A massive...

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July 12, 2019: leading indicators macro update

Instead of trying to predict when the economy will deteriorate in the distant future, we simply look for deterioration among the leading indicators. Instead of predicting the next 10 steps, we seek to predict the next 1-2 steps for the economy. Here’s a brief summary of the leading economic indicators we track Positive factors Labor market Corporate profits Financial conditions Loans Inflation-adjusted new orders Heavy Truck Sales Earnings revisions Inflation-adjusted retail sales...

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When this happens, the stock market goes up 100% of the time

The market expects a Fed rate cut soon as the stock market pushes to new highs. Today’s headlines: Fed rate cut AAII sentiment Volatility of volatility Using copper to trade stocks Are bonds and interest rates reversing? Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day. Fed rate cut The Fed will probably cut interest rates this month, even though the stock market is at...

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Conference Board LEI Model (NASDAQ version)

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What will an earnings recession do to stocks?

Earnings season is just around the quarter, and earnings growth is expected to be negative. Many traders have attributed the stock market’s rally over the past few months to a dovish Fed. Today’s headlines: Earnings growth Goldman Sachs Bull/Bear Indicator Large caps outperforming small caps Industrials underperformance Fed’s dovishness Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on...

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Recession probabilities increase as breadth weakens. What’s next for stocks

Amidst the never-ending sea of things to worry about, more economic indicators are flashing warning signs. Meanwhile, breadth is weakening a little. Today’s headlines: NY Fed’s Recession Probability OECD’s Leading Indicator Dow Theory Sentiment divergence Breadth divergence Go here to understand our fundamentals-driven long term outlook. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day. NY Fed’s Recession Probability The New York Fed...

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Yield Curve Model (NASDAQ version)

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