Friday , October 22 2021
Home / Calculated Risk / Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 16.6% year-over-year in May

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 16.6% year-over-year in May

Summary:
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3 month average of March, April and May prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports Record High Annual Home Price Gain Of 16.6% In MayThe S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 16.6% annual gain in May, up from 14.8% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 16.4%, up from 14.5% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 17.0% year-over-year gain, up from 15.0% in the previous month. Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle reported the highest

Topics:
Calculated Risk considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

Tyler Durden writes Shipping Containers From Stranded Ships Abandoned In California Neighborhoods

Tyler Durden writes China Tested Two Nuclear-Capable Hypersonic Glide Vehicles This Summer, FT Reports

Tyler Durden writes WSB’ers Help Drive Trump’s “TRUTH Social” SPAC Up Over 600% On The Day

Tyler Durden writes Salmonella Outbreak In Multiple States Linked To Onions: CDC

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3 month average of March, April and May prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports Record High Annual Home Price Gain Of 16.6% In May
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 16.6% annual gain in May, up from 14.8% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 16.4%, up from 14.5% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 17.0% year-over-year gain, up from 15.0% in the previous month.

Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in May. Phoenix led the way with a 25.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by San Diego with a 24.7% increase and Seattle with a 23.4% increase. All 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending May 2021 versus the year ending April 2021.
...
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 2.1% month-over-month increase in May, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.9% and 2.1%, respectively

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.7%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively. In May, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.

“Housing price growth set a record for the second consecutive month in May 2021,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index marked its twelfth consecutive month of accelerating prices with a 16.6% gain from year-ago levels, up from 14.8% in April. This acceleration is also reflected in the 10- and 20-City Composites (up 16.4% and 17.0%, respectively). The market’s strength continues to be broadly-based: all 20 cities rose, and all 20 gained more in the 12 months ended in May than they had gained in the 12 months ended in April. Prices in 18 of our 20 cities now stand at all-time highs, as do the National Composite and both the 10- and 20-City indices.

“A month ago, I described April’s performance as “truly extraordinary,” and this month I find myself running out of superlatives. The 16.6% gain is the highest reading in more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data. As was the case last month, five cities – Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, and Seattle – joined the National Composite in recording their all-time highest 12-month gains. Price gains in all 20 cities were in the top quartile of historical performance; in 17 cities, price gains were in top decile.

“We have previously suggested that the strength in the U.S. housing market is being driven in part by reaction to the COVID pandemic, as potential buyers move from urban apartments to suburban homes. May’s data continue to be consistent with this hypothesis. This demand surge may simply represent an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred anyway over the next several years. Alternatively, there may have been a secular change in locational preferences, leading to a permanent shift in the demand curve for housing. More time and data will be required to analyze this question.
emphasis added
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 16.6% year-over-year in May Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is up 1.7 in May (SA).

The Composite 20 index is up 1.8% (SA) in May.

The National index is 38% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 1.7% (SA) in May.  The National index is up 86% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA).

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 16.6% year-over-year in May The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 16.4% compared to May 2020.  The Composite 20 SA is up 17.0% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 164.6% year-over-year.

Price increases were slightly above expectations.  I'll have more later.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.