Monday , May 17 2021
Home / Calculated Risk / Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 7%

Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 7%

Summary:
Note that the forecasts of the automated systems (based on released data) are lower than the forecasts of economists. Economists are expecting March to be very strong.From Merrrill Lynch: We continue to track 7.0% for 1Q GDP growth. [Apr 9 estimate]emphasis addedFrom Goldman Sachs: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +7.5% (qoq ar). [Apr 9 estimate]From the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 6.0% for 2021:Q1 and 1.5% for 2021:Q2. [Apr 9 estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 6.0 percent on April 9, down from 6.2 percent on April 7. [Apr 9 estimate]

Topics:
Calculated Risk considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

Yves Smith writes Costo Is Mean to the Disabled and Elderly

Tyler Durden writes America’s Housing Future Remains Murky At Best – Part 1

Tyler Durden writes “Ever Heard Of Paypal?”: Elon Musk Has Epic Meltdown Arguing With Bitcoin Fanatics

Tyler Durden writes The 0 Million New Jersey-Based Hometown Deli Has Fired Its Wrestling Coach CEO

Note that the forecasts of the automated systems (based on released data) are lower than the forecasts of economists. Economists are expecting March to be very strong.

From Merrrill Lynch:
We continue to track 7.0% for 1Q GDP growth. [Apr 9 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +7.5% (qoq ar). [Apr 9 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 6.0% for 2021:Q1 and 1.5% for 2021:Q2. [Apr 9 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 6.0 percent on April 9, down from 6.2 percent on April 7. [Apr 9 estimate]

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.