Monday , March 1 2021
Home / Calculated Risk / Q4 GDP Forecasts

Q4 GDP Forecasts

Summary:
From Merrrill Lynch: We revise up 1Q 2021 GDP growth to 4.0% qoq saar from 1.0%, but take down 2Q to 5.0% from 7.0%, reflecting the earlier passage of stimulus in December. This leaves annual 2021 growth at 5.0% from 4.6% previously, with risks tilted to the upside if additional stimulus makes it through Washington in coming months. We continue to track 5.0% qoq saar for 4Q 2020 GDP. [Jan 15 estimate] emphasis addedFrom the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.5% for 2020:Q4 and 6.2% for 2021:Q1. [Jan 15 estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 7.4 percent on January 15, down from 8.7 percent on January 8. [Jan 15 estimate]

Topics:
Calculated Risk considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

Calculated Risk writes Monday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending

Reuters writes China’s manufacturing activity growth slips to lowest level since May

Alison Tudor-Ackroyd writes China electric-vehicle war: top 5 investment funds in electric vehicles to watch out for in 2021

Calculated Risk writes February 28 COVID-19 Test Results and Vaccinations

From Merrrill Lynch:
We revise up 1Q 2021 GDP growth to 4.0% qoq saar from 1.0%, but take down 2Q to 5.0% from 7.0%, reflecting the earlier passage of stimulus in December. This leaves annual 2021 growth at 5.0% from 4.6% previously, with risks tilted to the upside if additional stimulus makes it through Washington in coming months. We continue to track 5.0% qoq saar for 4Q 2020 GDP. [Jan 15 estimate] emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.5% for 2020:Q4 and 6.2% for 2021:Q1. [Jan 15 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 7.4 percent on January 15, down from 8.7 percent on January 8. [Jan 15 estimate]

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *