Friday , December 6 2019
Home / Calculated Risk / Chicago Fed "Index points to little change in economic growth in February"

Chicago Fed "Index points to little change in economic growth in February"

Summary:
From the Chicago Fed: Index points to little change in economic growth in FebruaryThe Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged down to –0.29 in February from –0.25 in January. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from January, and three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in February. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to –0.18 in February from a neutral reading in January.emphasis addedThis graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967. Click on graph for larger image.This suggests economic activity was below the historical trend in February (using the three-month average).According to the Chicago Fed:The index is a weighted average of

Topics:
Bill McBride considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

Tyler Durden writes Allstate Lawyers Fear For Safety After Opposing Counsel Threatens To Unleash “Long D*ck Of The Law”

Tyler Durden writes China’s Foreign Ministry Is Starting To “Speak Like Trump”

James Picerno writes Is The November Payrolls Report As Good As It Looks?

Tyler Durden writes Goldman Shares Jump After DOJ Said To Weigh Lowball 1MDB Settlement

From the Chicago Fed: Index points to little change in economic growth in February
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged down to –0.29 in February from –0.25 in January. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from January, and three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in February. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to –0.18 in February from a neutral reading in January.
emphasis added
This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Chicago Fed "Index points to little change in economic growth in February" Click on graph for larger image.

This suggests economic activity was below the historical trend in February (using the three-month average).

According to the Chicago Fed:
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.
...
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
Bill McBride
A full time blogger, Mr. McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *