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Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-2s

Summary:
The BEA has announced that the Q4 advanced GDP report will be combined with the 2nd estimate of GDP, and will be released on Feb 28th.From Merrill Lynch: Better than expected trade data were offset by soft manufacturing inventories data, leaving our 4Q tracking estimate unchanged at 2.3%. [Feb 8 estimate]emphasis addedFrom the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.4% for 2018:Q4 and 2.2% for 2019:Q1. [Feb 8 estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.7 percent on February 6, up from 2.5 percent on February 1. [Feb 6 estimate]CR Note: These estimates suggest GDP in the mid 2s for Q4.

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The BEA has announced that the Q4 advanced GDP report will be combined with the 2nd estimate of GDP, and will be released on Feb 28th.

From Merrill Lynch:
Better than expected trade data were offset by soft manufacturing inventories data, leaving our 4Q tracking estimate unchanged at 2.3%. [Feb 8 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.4% for 2018:Q4 and 2.2% for 2019:Q1. [Feb 8 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.7 percent on February 6, up from 2.5 percent on February 1. [Feb 6 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest GDP in the mid 2s for Q4.
Bill McBride
A full time blogger, Mr. McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

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