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Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-High 2s

Summary:
From Merrill Lynch: 4Q GDP tracking remains at 2.8%. We forecast 1Q GDP growth of 2.2%, but downside risks are emerging due to the government shutdown. [Jan 18 estimate]emphasis addedFrom the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.6% for 2018:Q4 and 2.2% for 2019:Q1. [Jan 18 estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe current GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.8 percent on January 16, unchanged from January 10. [Jan 16 estimate]CR Note: These estimates suggest GDP in the mid-to-high 2s for Q4.

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From Merrill Lynch:
4Q GDP tracking remains at 2.8%. We forecast 1Q GDP growth of 2.2%, but downside risks are emerging due to the government shutdown. [Jan 18 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.6% for 2018:Q4 and 2.2% for 2019:Q1. [Jan 18 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The current GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.8 percent on January 16, unchanged from January 10. [Jan 16 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest GDP in the mid-to-high 2s for Q4.
Bill McBride
A full time blogger, Mr. McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

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