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CBO: Monthly Budget Review for July 2018

Summary:
As expected, the deficit is increasing significantly.From the CBO: Monthly Budget Review for July 2018The federal budget deficit was 2 billion for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2018, CBO estimates, 6 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period last year. Revenues and outlays were 1 percent and 4 percent higher, respectively, than in the same period in fiscal year 2017.As was the case last year, this year’s outlays were affected by shifts in the timing of certain payments that otherwise would have been due on a weekend. If not for those shifts, outlays and the deficit through July would have been larger, by roughly billion, both this year and last year—but the year-to-year changes would not have been very different.CBO expects that the deficit, receipts,

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As expected, the deficit is increasing significantly.

From the CBO: Monthly Budget Review for July 2018
The federal budget deficit was $682 billion for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2018, CBO estimates, $116 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period last year. Revenues and outlays were 1 percent and 4 percent higher, respectively, than in the same period in fiscal year 2017.

As was the case last year, this year’s outlays were affected by shifts in the timing of certain payments that otherwise would have been due on a weekend. If not for those shifts, outlays and the deficit through July would have been larger, by roughly $40 billion, both this year and last year—but the year-to-year changes would not have been very different.

CBO expects that the deficit, receipts, and outlays for fiscal year 2018 will be largely consistent with amounts in its adjusted April baseline, which were reported in An Analysis of the President’s 2019 Budget in May 2018. At that time, CBO projected a deficit of $793 billion, outlays of $4,131 billion, and receipts of $3,339 billion.
Next year the deficit will probably be close to $1 Trillion (about 4.6% of GDP).
Bill McBride
A full time blogger, Mr. McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

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