Friday , December 15 2017
Home / Calculated Risk / November Employment Revisions

November Employment Revisions

Summary:
Every month, prior to writing my employment preview, I like to look at revisions for that month in prior years. Here is a table of revisions for November since 2005.  Note that most of the revisions have been up.   This doesn't mean that the November 2017 revision will be up, but it does seem likely.  Although, in recent years, the revisions have been more evenly split between up and down.  The fairly large upward revision in 2005 was related to the hurricanes that year.November Employment Report (000s)YearInitialRevisedRevision2005215341126200613220977200794114202008-533-766-2332009-11-29201039119802011120141212012146132-142013203258552014321312-92015211272612016178164-14Note: In 2008, the BLS significantly under reported job losses. That wasn't surprising since the initial models the

Topics:
Bill McBride considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog writes Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog 1970-01-01 00:00:00

Jeffrey P. Snider writes Inside and Outside, Market and Models Actually Agree On A Final Failing Grade For Yellen

Tyler Durden writes Trial Of Shkreli Lawyer Interrupted By “Potentially Career-Ending” Allegations About Prosecutor

Tyler Durden writes The ‘Unknown Unknowns’ That Threaten U.S. Shale

Every month, prior to writing my employment preview, I like to look at revisions for that month in prior years.

Here is a table of revisions for November since 2005.  Note that most of the revisions have been up.   This doesn't mean that the November 2017 revision will be up, but it does seem likely.  Although, in recent years, the revisions have been more evenly split between up and down.
 
The fairly large upward revision in 2005 was related to the hurricanes that year.

November Employment Report (000s)
YearInitialRevisedRevision
2005215341126
200613220977
20079411420
2008-533-766-233
2009-11-29
20103911980
201112014121
2012146132-14
201320325855
2014321312-9
201521127261
2016178164-14

Note: In 2008, the BLS significantly under reported job losses. That wasn't surprising since the initial models the BLS used missed turning points (something I wrote about in 2007). The BLS has since improved this model.
Bill McBride

A full time blogger, Mr. McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the ’90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *