Thursday , October 19 2017
Home / Calculated Risk / Q3 GDP Forecasts

Q3 GDP Forecasts

Summary:
From the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 3.5 percent on August 9, down from 3.7 percent on August 4.From the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.0% for 2017:Q3. The effects of news from this week’s data releases were small, leaving the nowcast broadly unchanged.From Merrill Lynch: 3Q GDP tracking remained unchanged on net at 2.8%. 2Q tracking was bumped up a tenth to 2.5%, owing to better wholesale inventories data. CR Note: Looks like real GDP growth will probably be in the 2s again in Q3.

Topics:
Bill McBride considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

Bill McBride writes Black Knight: "Hurricanes Irma and Harvey Drive Surge in Past-Due Mortgages"

noreply@blogger.com (New Deal democrat) writes “Hurricane adjusting” initial claims has proven its value

Barry Ritholtz writes Art Cashin Remembers Black Monday, 1987

Bill McBride writes Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 222,000

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 3.5 percent on August 9, down from 3.7 percent on August 4.
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.0% for 2017:Q3. The effects of news from this week’s data releases were small, leaving the nowcast broadly unchanged.
From Merrill Lynch:
3Q GDP tracking remained unchanged on net at 2.8%. 2Q tracking was bumped up a tenth to 2.5%, owing to better wholesale inventories data.
CR Note: Looks like real GDP growth will probably be in the 2s again in Q3.
Bill McBride
A full time blogger, Mr. McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *