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Philly Fed: "Regional manufacturing activity continued to expand" in May

Summary:
From the Philly Fed: Current Indicators Reflect Continued GrowthResults from the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity continued to expand this month. The diffusion indexes for general activity and shipments improved notably from their April readings. The indexes for new orders and employment, however, fell modestly from last month but remained at high readings. Although most of the survey’s future indicators fell this month, the readings suggest that most firms still expect growth to continue over the next six months. ...The index for current manufacturing activity in the region increased from a reading of 22.0 in April to 38.8 this month. The index has been positive for 10 consecutive months. This month, the index recovered some of the

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From the Philly Fed: Current Indicators Reflect Continued Growth
Results from the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity continued to expand this month. The diffusion indexes for general activity and shipments improved notably from their April readings. The indexes for new orders and employment, however, fell modestly from last month but remained at high readings. Although most of the survey’s future indicators fell this month, the readings suggest that most firms still expect growth to continue over the next six months.
...
The index for current manufacturing activity in the region increased from a reading of 22.0 in April to 38.8 this month. The index has been positive for 10 consecutive months. This month, the index recovered some of the declines of the previous two months, but it still remains slightly below its high reading of 43.3 in February ...
...
Firms reported an increase in manufacturing employment this month, but the current employment index fell 3 points. The index has remained positive for six consecutive months. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in employment was 23 percent, lower than the 27 percent that reported increases in April. Firms also reported an increase in work hours this month: The average workweek index remained positive for the seventh consecutive month and increased 3 points.
emphasis added
Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Philly Fed: "Regional manufacturing activity continued to expand" in May Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through May), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through April) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through April (right axis).

This suggests the ISM manufacturing index will show solid expansion in May.
Bill McBride
A full time blogger, Mr. McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

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