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Personal Income and Outlays, July 2021

Summary:
Personal income increased 5.9 billion (1.1 percent) in July according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased 8.0 billion (1.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased .2 billion (0.3 percent). Real DPI increased 0.7 percent in July and Real PCE decreased 0.1 percent; goods decreased 1.6 percent and services increased 0.6 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent (table 9).   2021 Mar. Apr. May June  July  Percent change from preceding month Personal income:        Current dollars 21.0 -13.6  -2.1  0.2 1.1 Disposable personal income:

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Personal income increased $225.9 billion (1.1 percent) in July according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $198.0 billion (1.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $42.2 billion (0.3 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.7 percent in July and Real PCE decreased 0.1 percent; goods decreased 1.6 percent and services increased 0.6 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent (table 9).

  2021
Mar. Apr. May June  July 
Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:  
     Current dollars 21.0 -13.6  -2.1  0.2 1.1
Disposable personal income:  
     Current dollars 23.7 -15.5  -2.7  0.0 1.1
     Chained (2012) dollars 23.0 -16.0  -3.2 -0.5  0.7
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):  
     Current dollars 5.2 1.0 0.1 1.1 0.3
     Chained (2012) dollars 4.6 0.4 -0.5  0.5 -0.1 
Price indexes:  
     PCE 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4
     PCE, excluding food and energy 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3
Price indexes: Percent change from month one year ago
     PCE 2.5 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.2
     PCE, excluding food and energy 2.0 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.6

COVID-19 Impact on July 2021 Personal Income and Outlays

The estimate for July personal income and outlays reflected the continued economic recovery, reopening of establishments, and government response related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Government social benefits increased in July, reflecting new advance Child Tax Credit payments authorized by the American Rescue Plan. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the personal income and outlays estimate because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income.

The increase in personal income in July primarily reflected increases in government social benefits and compensation of employees (table 3). Within government social benefits, an increase in "other" social benefits (more than accounted for by advance Child Tax Credit payments as authorized by the American Rescue Plan) was partly offset by a decrease in unemployment insurance, reflecting a decrease in payments from the Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program. Within compensation, the increase was primarily in private wages and salaries, reflecting Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics.

The $42.2 billion increase in current dollar PCE in July reflected an increase of $102.6 billion in spending for services and a decrease of $60.4 billion in spending for goods (table 3). Within services, increases were widespread across all spending categories, led by food services and accommodations. Within goods, decreases were widespread across most spending categories, led by motor vehicles and parts, recreational goods and vehicles, as well as clothing and footwear. These decreases were partly offset by an increase in gasoline and other energy goods. Detailed information on monthly PCE spending can be found on Table 2.3.5U.

Personal outlays increased $45.4 billion in July (table 3). Personal saving was $1.72 trillion in July and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 9.6 percent (table 1).

The PCE price index for July increased 4.2 percent from one year ago, reflecting increases in both goods and services (table 11). Energy prices increased 23.6 percent while food prices increased 2.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index for July increased 3.6 percent from one year ago.

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for January through June. For January through March, estimates of personal taxes were revised based on updated data from the Treasury Department’s Office of Tax Analysis. Revised and previously published changes from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and PCE, are shown below.

  Change from preceding month
May June 
Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
(Billions of dollars) (Percent) (Billions of dollars) (Percent)
Personal income:  
     Current dollars -465.0  -443.6  -2.2  -2.1  26.1 37.2 0.1 0.2
Disposable personal income:  
     Current dollars -502.0  -491.6  -2.7  -2.7  -2.6  -0.8  0.0 0.0
     Chained (2012) dollars -518.8  -514.0  -3.2  -3.2  -82.4  -83.2  -0.5  -0.5 
Personal consumption expenditures:  
     Current dollars -13.8  8.5 -0.1  0.1 155.4 167.0 1.0 1.1
     Chained (2012) dollars -80.8  -65.5  -0.6  -0.5  65.0 72.5 0.5 0.5

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Next release: October 1, 2021 at 8:30 A.M. EDT
Personal Income and Outlays, August 2021

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Bureau of Economic Analysis
The BEA Advisory Committee advises the Director of BEA on matters related to the development and improvement of BEA’s national, regional, industry, and international economic accounts, especially in areas of new and rapidly growing economic activities arising from innovative and advancing technologies, and provides recommendations from the perspectives of the economics profession, business, and government.

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