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Personal Income and Outlays, July 2020

Summary:
Personal income increased .5 billion (0.4 percent) in July according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased .9 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 7.6 billion (1.9 percent). Real DPI decreased 0.1 percent in July and Real PCE increased 1.6 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on July 2020 Personal Income and Outlays The July estimate for personal income and outlays was impacted by the response to the spread of COVID-19. Federal economic recovery payments continued but were at a lower level than in June, and government

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Personal income increased $70.5 billion (0.4 percent) in July according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $39.9 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $267.6 billion (1.9 percent).

Real DPI decreased 0.1 percent in July and Real PCE increased 1.6 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on July 2020 Personal Income and Outlays

The July estimate for personal income and outlays was impacted by the response to the spread of COVID-19. Federal economic recovery payments continued but were at a lower level than in June, and government “stay-at-home” orders lifted in some areas of the country. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the personal income and outlays estimate because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see see Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income.

The increase in personal income in July was more than accounted for by compensation of employees as portions of the economy continued to reopen (table 3). Proprietors’ income and rental income of persons also contributed to the increase.

Partially offsetting these increases were decreases in government social benefits and income on assets. Unemployment insurance benefits, based primarily on unemployment claims data from the Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration, decreased in July. For more information, see “How will federal government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic affect unemployment insurance benefits?”.

  2020
Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul.
Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:  
     Current dollars -1.8 12.2  -4.2  -1.0  0.4 
Disposable personal income:  
     Current dollars -1.7  14.8  -4.8  -1.3  0.2 
     Chained (2012) dollars -1.4  15.4  -4.9  -1.8  -0.1 
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):  
     Current dollars -6.7  -12.9  8.6  6.2  1.9 
     Chained (2012) dollars -6.5  -12.4  8.4  5.7  1.6 
Price indexes:  
     PCE -0.3 -0.5  0.1  0.5 0.3
     PCE, excluding food and energy -0.1 -0.4  0.2  0.3 0.3
Price indexes: Percent change from month one year ago
     PCE 1.3 0.5  0.5 0.9 1.0 
     PCE, excluding food and energy 1.7 0.9  1.0  1.1 1.3 

The $200.6 billion increase in real PCE in July reflected an increase of $82.1 billion in spending for goods and a $121.2 billion increase in spending for services (table 7). Within goods, the leading contributor to the increase was spending for new motor vehicles, based primarily on unit sales from Ward’s Automotive Sales Report. Within services, the leading contributors to the increase were spending for health care as well as food services and accommodations. Within health care, both hospital and outpatient services increased, based on volume data for hospital services and outpatient visits as well as credit card data. Spending for food services and accommodations was based on Census Monthly Retail Trade Survey data and Smith Travel Research data. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found on Table 2.3.6U.

Personal outlays increased $270.6 billion in July (table 3). Personal saving was $3.19 trillion in July and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 17.8 percent (table 1).

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for January through June. For January through March, estimates for wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance reflect the incorporation of the most recently available first-quarter wage and salary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. Revised and previously published changes from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and PCE, are shown below.

  Change from preceding month
May  June 
Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
(Billions of dollars) (Percent) (Billions of dollars) (Percent)
Personal income:  
     Current dollars -934.8  -877.9  -4.4  -4.2  -222.8  -205.1 -1.1 -1.0
Disposable personal income:  
     Current dollars -969.6  -917.0  -5.1  -4.8  -255.3 -238.3 -1.4 -1.3
     Chained (2012) dollars -899.5  -854.0  -5.2  -4.9  -290.7 -293.5 -1.8 -1.8
Personal consumption expenditures:  
     Current dollars 1,024.7  1,037.5  8.5  8.6  737.7  809.1  5.6  6.2 
     Chained (2012) dollars 916.7  927.1  8.4  8.4  623.0  673.5  5.2  5.7 

Next release: October 1, 2020 at 8:30 A.M. EDT
Personal Income and Outlays: August 2020

Bureau of Economic Analysis
The BEA Advisory Committee advises the Director of BEA on matters related to the development and improvement of BEA’s national, regional, industry, and international economic accounts, especially in areas of new and rapidly growing economic activities arising from innovative and advancing technologies, and provides recommendations from the perspectives of the economics profession, business, and government.

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